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 Post subject: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:38 am 
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So, the market for international players begins next Tuesday, July 2, 2013. The Pirates have not usually been in the market for the "$1 million and up" guys, but they almost always sign a few youngsters for five- and six-figure bonuses. Here's a list of the Top 30 International Prospects compiled by Ben Badler of Baseball America:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/internat ... ects-list/

1. Eloy Jimenez, of, Dominican Republic
2. Gleyber Torres, ss, Venezuela
3. Rafael Devers, 3b, Dominican Republic
4. Luis Encarnacion, 3b, Dominican Republic
5. Leonardo Molina, cf, Dominican Republic
6. Marcos Diplan, rhp, Dominican Republic
7. Yeyson Yrizarri, ss, Venezuela/Dominican Republic
8. Yeltsin Gudino, ss, Venezuela
9. Micker Zapata, of, Dominican Republic
10. Jose Herrera, c, Venezuela
11. Carlos Herrera, ss, Venezuela
12. Marten Gasparini, ss, Italy
13. Erick Julio, rhp, Colombia
14. Jesus Lopez, ss, Nicaragua
15. Lewin Diaz, of/1b, Dominican Republic
16. Erling Moreno, rhp, Colombia
17. Carlos Hiciano, ss, Dominican Republic
18. Freddy Rodriguez, of, Venezuela
19. Mayky Perez, rhp, Dominican Republic
20. Nicolas Pierre, of, Dominican Republic
21. Greifer Andrade, of, Venezuela
22. Cristhian Vasquez, of, Venezuela
23. Jen-Ho Tseng, rhp, Taiwan
24. Wilson Amador, ss, Dominican Republic
25. Ali Sanchez, c, Venezuela
26. Michael de Leon, ss, Dominican Republic
27. Ricardo Sanchez, lhp, Venezuela
28. Carlos Talavera, of, Venezuela
29. Anderson Franco, 3b, Dominican Republic
30. Luis Carpio, ss, Venezuela

It would be nice to see the Bucs sign one or two of these guys and add them to the system. I'd be particularly interested in the high upside left-handed pitchers, as the Pirates don't have a lot of those in the system outside of 2013 Rule IV draftee Blake Taylor. If I could pick two of these players, I'd go with Ricardo Sanchez (best LHP on the international market) and Lewin Diaz (power-hitting corner outfielder, 1B).


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:43 am 
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Here's another free Baseball America article on some of the more intriguing members of this year's international class:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/internat ... or-july-2/

Feel free to post additional articles, scouting reports, or just musings about the international market in this thread.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 11:46 am 
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Lewin Diaz doesn't look like much in the field, but I like his left-handed swing. He appears to create easy power. Take a look:



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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:48 pm 
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Has anyone heard the Bucs linked to any of these guys?


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:55 pm 
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Article from P2 with a snippet on the way the Pirates usually approach the international draft: http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/first-pitch-why-does-the-pirates-farm-system-seem-different-this-year.html

Relevant snippets, bolded the strategy that I'm guessing they'll employ again this year:

"First impressions can be hard to overcome. If you don’t come into the league with hype, it takes a while before you build that hype up. This is the topic I talked about with David on the show. The examples I brought up were Gregory Polanco and Alen Hanson. Next week teams will be lining up to sign international prospects for seven figure salaries. Those guys will be getting those seven figure salaries because, at the age of 16, they will be showing slightly more polish than the guys who are getting five figure salaries. That doesn’t mean the upsides will be different.

Alen Hanson signed for $150,000. Gregory Polanco signed for $75,000. Neither was polished when signed. In fact, Polanco was raw tools up until his breakout season last year. Now both are looking like potential impact players. If they signed for seven figure deals and had the seasons they did last year, we might have seen them in the top 25 coming into the 2013 season."


[...]

"Not every guy breaks out. Glasnow and Kingham have been great, but the 2009 prep pitchers have been a disappointment. Polanco and Hanson have been a steal at a combined $225,000, but Yhonathan Barrios and Jodaneli Carvajal both signed for more than that amount, and both are stalling out in short-season A-ball.

The thing about this approach is that it’s a numbers game. Do you sign one international hitter for $1 M and hope he makes it? Or do you sign 4-5 international hitters for $1 M total, all with a lot of tools and upside, and hope that 1-2 of those guys make it? With the draft you don’t have an either-or choice. However, you’re spending $8 M on Gerrit Cole because you think he’s going to be an ace. So if you spend $8.6 M on 13 pitchers, and you get two of them (Glasnow and Kingham) who look like potential top of the rotation guys, you’re coming out ahead.


That’s one reason why I’ve been higher on the system and the depth behind the top guys than most people. It’s because the Pirates have been loading up on these types of players. They have a lot of talented international hitters and prep pitchers coming through the system. They also have talented international pitchers and prep hitters, but the guys who have broken out the last two years have been more of the former. You don’t know which guys will break out. That 2012 West Virginia team had Willy Garcia, Jose Osuna, and Jodaneli Carvajal on the team. There wasn’t much that separated Polanco and Hanson. They just happened to be the guys who stepped forward with their game. You could say the same about Tyler Glasnow and Clay Holmes right now in West Virginia. Glasnow is stepping forward, while Holmes is struggling.

As long as you have plenty of talented guys with upside, you’re going to improve your chances of seeing a few guys break out. That might mean that you waste half a million dollars on Yhonathan Barrios and Jodaneli Carvajal. It might mean you watch a whole group of prep pitchers in 2009 become nothing. But the approach that led to those players is the same approach that led to Polanco, Hanson, Kingham, and Glasnow. I think anyone would take that trade off."

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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:08 pm 
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That article, StarlingArcher, is why I don't expect the Pirates to pursue any of the top ten international prospects. The two I identified are ranked #15 and #27 by Baseball America. Those players likely won't command $1 million bonuses, but rather six-figure bonuses.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:17 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
That article, StarlingArcher, is why I don't expect the Pirates to pursue any of the top ten international prospects. The two I identified are ranked #15 and #27 by Baseball America. Those players likely won't command $1 million bonuses, but rather six-figure bonuses.


Yeah, you never know. Like the article said, Hanson signed for 150K. Elvis Escobar signed for 570K, Jin-de Jhang for 250K, and Harold Ramirez for 1.05M so they've gone pretty high before.

But, that was before the allotted pools amounts so the "numbers game" might go out the window. Last year they signed only 5 guys during the signing period, and the 4 with disclosed amounts were for 6 figure salaries (highest was 700K, lowest was 225K). So, maybe they change their approach or just rely REALLY heavily on their Dominican facility they poured all that money into a few years ago to get them their numbers.

They've gone numbers heavy for too many years in a row for me to think they'll totally abandon it...just might have to go about it differently.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:40 pm 
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As I have stated in the past, MLB player signings and development are the biggest crap shoot in sports....nothing even close.... :P :P :P


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 1:50 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
As I have stated in the past, MLB player signings and development are the biggest crap shoot in sports....nothing even close.... :P :P :P


Yep. And with International players, you're projecting 16 year olds instead of 18-19 year olds. Some of these kids might not even be throwing curveballs yet.

I'll track the DSL teams and it's amazing how few of those guys actually wind up making the jump to the GCL and then ultimately matriculating to full-season A ball.

If you're a small market team, it's just such a kick in the groin to have both of the amateur pools capped. It lessens the margin of error significantly.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 3:48 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Has anyone heard the Bucs linked to any of these guys?


This is a well-timed article, but the short answer is....no. But it might not matter since most of the guys they've signed and seen blown up weren't all that highly regarded.

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2013/06/pirates-arent-linked-to-any-of-the-top-international-prospects.html

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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:47 pm 
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With the caps placed on North American draft picks, isnt this the last place the Pirates can get an advantage by overspending? I would think the Pirates would be very aggressive in this market given the rule changes on the draft.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 4:50 pm 
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MoTownWV wrote:
With the caps placed on North American draft picks, isnt this the last place the Pirates can get an advantage by overspending? I would think the Pirates would be very aggressive in this market given the rule changes on the draft.


They capped international, too. Everything amateur is capped now. Pirates have 2.426M to spend internationally in 2013.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 9:57 pm 
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Capped everything but free agent spending, so the big market teams have even more advantages now.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:44 am 
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historyprof wrote:
Capped everything but free agent spending, so the big market teams have even more advantages now.


True.

Although, I believe the amounts to spend are also based on order of finish... or in some way descending. Where's BD to settle this when you need him?

---

Not knowing the International market, but aware enough of the Bucs needs: It can't hurt to have MIF's and arms. Although, the FO seems to know how to develop (foreign) OF's...

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 Post subject: Re: The 2013 International Market (Open July 2nd)
PostPosted: Thu Jul 04, 2013 1:47 am 
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Apparently close to signing a SS (Adrian Valerio) per Biertempfel's Twitter and P2 reports they signed an outfielder (Edinson Latigua) for 250K who is, surprise, a CF who is regarded as having a really high ceiling.

Cut from the Marte, Polanco, Garcia, Urena, Escobar, Ramirez mold.

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