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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:57 pm 
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Ok suggesting Soriano was stupid. I didnt realize he was hitting so poorly. And I didn't like him as a player even when he could hit. But I'd be happy with an older veteran at the end of his contract who can still play and who you wouldn't have to give up much for.

I'd rather see that than trading 3 blue chippers for Stanton.

Stanton's 2011 and 2012 were quite remarkable, especially considering his age. But there's no guarantee he's going to continue that.

Remember Matt Kemp from 2011? Who would have ever thought he would fall of so quickly?


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 1:45 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
Ok suggesting Soriano was stupid. I didnt realize he was hitting so poorly. And I didn't like him as a player even when he could hit. But I'd be happy with an older veteran at the end of his contract who can still play and who you wouldn't have to give up much for.

I'd rather see that than trading 3 blue chippers for Stanton.

Stanton's 2011 and 2012 were quite remarkable, especially considering his age. But there's no guarantee he's going to continue that.

Remember Matt Kemp from 2011? Who would have ever thought he would fall of so quickly?

Sure, there's no guarantee on anyone. But there is absolutely no guarantee that any of the guys in our farm system are going to be studs in the majors. Stanton has proved he's a stud at the major league level and it seems to me that he's put up numbers that are better than anyone on our team. I'd love to see what Pedro would do if he had some protection in the lineup.

But....small market clubs have a much much lower risk to reward ratio than the bigger guys and we really can't afford to do this trade right now, now matter how promising the upside.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:04 pm 
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And one more thing to consider, looking past 2016, the Bucs already have Cutch locked up at shall we say "Not Exactly A-Rod or Pujols numbers" for 2017 and 2018, which should give them some flexibility for looking beyond 2016.

And if Stanton continues what he is already doing through that season, Mr. Nutting will have that extra revenue he has hinted about in the past.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:57 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
StarlingArcher wrote:
RTJR wrote:
I wouldn't, not for what Taillon and Polanco will bring to the table. People say "but they're prospects and prospects aren't a guarantee", but honestly, not many guys fail in the big leagues after looking like these two once they have a couple years under their belt in the minors. Usually people can spot something wrong or may have questions, but these two are pretty much universally called rock solid.


Steve Pearce? Brad Lincoln? HUGE seasons in the high minors....just couldn't put it together in the majors.

That's more a rhetorical question than anything, I do agree that Taillon and Polanco will be good.

There are very few guys I'd be willing to trade them for, as any player would need to be 1) young 2) controllable 3) very good.

So really, I'm looking at Profar, Stanton, Segura, Harper, Trout, Sale, Harvey.

Stanton, IMO, is a better player in RF than Polanco will be. That's not denigrating Polanco's abilities, Stanton is currently on a Hall of Fame pace and Polanco isn't really a RF by nature. And then I look at Taillon, and while he's a good pitcher, the Pirates have a TON of depth there.

I think if you can get a ready-made generational type of talent, you do it. Stanton, Harper, and Trout are the only guys I'd be willing to part with both Taillon and Polanco for. Again, this is a guy with 100 career homeruns before the conclusion of his age 23 season, with a solid BA to boot.....just absurdly, absurdly good in my eyes.

You really think that three season of production from Stanton will be better than the production from Taillon, Polanco and Sanchez for 18 seasons between them? I have my doubts.


This is the post that says it best. Stanton is likely to produce more on a year to year basis than anyone in our organization. But is 3 years of Stanton going to be worth more than 6-7 years apiece of these other 3 guys?


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:01 pm 
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I think the Kemp thing has merit BUT I also think it's a better bet for a guy to peak in his age 26 season (part of his "prime" years) than in his age 22 season.

The ONLY reason I'm cool with doing this deal is Stanton's age. You're basically dealing prospects for another prospect, in terms of age. If Stanton is 25, 26 I don't do it at that cost. But 23? Damn right I'm down.

And Corsair I agree. I think the Bucs can run payroll up to 80-90 million in their contending years. There's no need to do that now, but the contending years will coincide with arbitration and the inevitable hole we'll need to fill via free agency so I think it'll ramp up.

I think they could easily extend Stanton and have him and Cutch as the centerpieces for the wave that comes up next. Yeah, it guarantees that Marte, Alvarez, and Walker leave/get traded, but he's younger than all of them, and better too. I doubt they'll extend any of the pitchers either, as the costs are too high given injury risks and their mercurial nature. Hopefully they're able to get several good years out of them, develop them, then swing them for a great package like the Rays got for Shields and will get for Price.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:10 pm 
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There are a lot of reasons I would not favor this trade. Beyond a reluctance to part with the system's top two prospects, I also wouldn't want to lose Sanchez. If Martin is not re-signed for 2015, then Sanchez is the only possible starting catcher in the organization. Things may look better in 2017 but not before. Also I think it's unlikely the Bucs could get Stanton to sign an extension - which limits his value significantly.

Beyond all that is his injury history. A lot of different injuries and time lost for a young player. Here is the list for the last 2.5 years:


May 30 2013 – sore knees from rehab
April 29 2013 – Grade 2 hamstring strain – ultimately kept him out 6 weeks
April 10 2013 - shoulder injury; missed 7 days.
September 17th 2012 – oblique injury; missed 12 days.
July 7 2012 – arthro surgery for loose knee cartilage; missed 35 days in total. Missed periodic days due to his knee earlier in the season.
March 15th 2012 – knee soreness; missed 14 days.
March 11th 2012 –wrist soreness from HBP; out 5 days.
September 9, 2011 – aggravated hamstring; missed 7 days.
September 3, 2011 – hamstring injury; missed 6 days (except for one pinch hit appearance)
August 9, 2011- missed a game due to bruised toe
June 18, 2011- eye infection; missed 3 games but was bothered in night games for an extended period.
April 2, 2011 – hamstring; missed 7 days except for PH duty.
February 27, 2011- quad injury; missed 25 days.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:21 pm 
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I'd hold off until MLB is done with the Biogenesis investigation. I'm not saying that he's implicated. I'm just saying that there are reportedly more names and a powerful slugger in the same town makes me question whether to pull trigger.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:26 pm 
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I don't get this? For YEARS we have complained that we are sellers at the deadline and that we sell off our Major League roster every July and fill our minors up with PROSPECTS. For years everyone is sick of prospects and waiting 3, 4, 5 years until these guys are ready to play.

I have news for everyone....you know that 5 year plan that NH said he had? Well it's done and guess what, it worked. It's year 6 and we have a competitive baseball team. We have an average to above average starting rotation, a great bullpen, average defense and below average offense with the potential to be better. This year we are BUYERS at the deadline. And part of having a great farm system with depth isn't just so that you can wait 3-5 years for players to come up but its so you can trade when you need to so that your Major League team can be competitive.

Do I hope Polacno and Taillion will be studs, absolutely. Would I trade one of them for Stanton, I would. maybe not in the past when we were not a competitive team but I can honestly say now we are 1 or 2 players away from making a serious run at a championship. Put another front line starter in and give us a consistent anchor in the lineup and I think we are as good as any team in baseball.

Oh, and to correct some people in this thread, are you telling me 3.5 years of control isn't worth giving up players that MIGHT as good or better than Stanton? Are we really ready to not make this team better just in case we are as good 4 years from now?

Someone listed their criteria fro trading Taillion as

1. Young
2. Control
3. Great Player

I think Stanton is all of those things.

My proposal would be:

Greg Polanco
Alen Hanson
Tyler Glasnow
Stolmy Pimental
Jose Tabata
Travis Snider

For

Giancarlo Stanton
(Maybe a throw in or two)


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:19 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
I have news for everyone....you know that 5 year plan that NH said he had? Well it's done and guess what, it worked. It's year 6 and we have a competitive baseball team. We have an average to above average starting rotation, a great bullpen, average defense and below average offense with the potential to be better. This year we are BUYERS at the deadline. And part of having a great farm system with depth isn't just so that you can wait 3-5 years for players to come up but its so you can trade when you need to so that your Major League team can be competitive.

Okay, I see that and agree.

But just because we are no longer selling our personal effects to pay the bills and instead are going to buy something to make the place better does NOT mean that we should buy a Lamborghini.

rellimie wrote:
My proposal would be:

Greg Polanco
Alen Hanson
Tyler Glasnow
Stolmy Pimental
Jose Tabata
Travis Snider

For

Giancarlo Stanton
(Maybe a throw in or two)

Polanco could be better than Stanton. Seriously. Less HR's, but much better BA, more doubles, more walks, much better speed, more stolen bases, higher OBP due to the superior BA and great eye at the plate, an OPS of .850 plus (.375 OBP, .475 slugging).

Oh, and he is here for 6 years, not 3.

Oh, and he is not injury-plagued.

Add in the system's best young infielder, who combines power, speed, and a decent eye at the plate, and a very intriguing young arm (Glasnow) who is dealing in the upper 90's at age 19?

When is the last time a team obtaining a veteran from the Pirates, even somebody as good as Bay, offered anything REMOTELY that good in return to the Pirates?

Yeah, exactly.

So eff the teams that think they are going to pillage the Pirates' minor league system. Eff 'em. And the horse they rode in on.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:28 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
rellimie wrote:
I have news for everyone....you know that 5 year plan that NH said he had? Well it's done and guess what, it worked. It's year 6 and we have a competitive baseball team. We have an average to above average starting rotation, a great bullpen, average defense and below average offense with the potential to be better. This year we are BUYERS at the deadline. And part of having a great farm system with depth isn't just so that you can wait 3-5 years for players to come up but its so you can trade when you need to so that your Major League team can be competitive.

Okay, I see that and agree.

But just because we are no longer selling our personal effects to pay the bills and instead are going to buy something to make the place better does NOT mean that we should buy a Lamborghini.

rellimie wrote:
My proposal would be:

Greg Polanco
Alen Hanson
Tyler Glasnow
Stolmy Pimental
Jose Tabata
Travis Snider

For

Giancarlo Stanton
(Maybe a throw in or two)

Polanco could be better than Stanton. Seriously. Less HR's, but much better BA, more doubles, more walks, much better speed, more stolen bases, higher OBP due to the superior BA and great eye at the plate, an OPS of .850 plus (.375 OBP, .475 slugging).

Oh, and he is here for 6 years, not 3.

Oh, and he is not injury-plagued.

Add in the system's best young infielder, who combines power, speed, and a decent eye at the plate, and a very intriguing young arm (Glasnow) who is dealing in the upper 90's at age 19?

When is the last time a team obtaining a veteran from the Pirates, even somebody as good as Bay, offered anything REMOTELY that good in return to the Pirates?

Yeah, exactly.

So eff the teams that think they are going to pillage the Pirates' minor league system. Eff 'em. And the horse they rode in on.


When it comes right down to it, you have to ask yourself two questions.

1. Do you think you have a shot at a championship this year?
2. Does player A (Stanton) help you win said championship?

To me, a championship is damn near priceless.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:30 pm 
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I like Tim Williams take on this in PP blog.

Pirates could use an upgrade in RF, but the upgrade does not need to be a Mercedes. A nice Buick would work well. He mentions guys like Willingham and Rios as the type of player that would be an upgrade.

Now, that said, I am not yet throwing Snider or Tabata out the window. Snider has shown good plate discipline and contact until the recent run commiserate with his teammates. I can see him turning it around before too much longer. I also liked what I was seeing from Tabata before injury again. Like to see if it can be found again when he is back.

You are dealing from a position of strength with your record and MiLB depth. Act that way, and use it to get better, not necessarily be the face of a splash trade.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:38 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
I don't get this? For YEARS we have complained that we are sellers at the deadline and that we sell off our Major League roster every July and fill our minors up with PROSPECTS. For years everyone is sick of prospects and waiting 3, 4, 5 years until these guys are ready to play.


We've been buyers at the deadline the last two years and will be buyers again this year.

I am not at all sick of prospects. I LOVE having all those prospects coming up through the system. I love seeing guys like Cole come up and be successful, knowing that he is going to be here for many years at a low cost.

I am looking forward to the day when we are trading talented young players because we have a surplus in a certain area.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:39 pm 
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All of this argument maybe for not. I mean I have been talking like there is 1 maybe 2 needs on this team but the more I think about it the more I remind myself of the following:

RF - Need. Tabata is hurt and we don't know what he will be when he gets back. Snider is still a bug ?. Jones is not an outfielder even though he does alright when he is there.

SS - I like what I see out of Mercer and I hope he keeps it up, however; I am not sold on him.

1B - Jones is getting up there in age and Sanchez is okay, but an upgrade is welcome.

2B - Potential need. Walker isn't exactly what he used to be before the back injury.

So this team could almost need upgrades in 50% of its positions if Mercer doesn't pan out and Walker doesn't play like he used to.

I've actually just convinced myself we don't need Stanton.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:52 pm 
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Ken wrote:

. . . Beyond all that is his injury history. A lot of different injuries and time lost for a young player. Here is the list for the last 2.5 years:


May 30 2013 – sore knees from rehab
April 29 2013 – Grade 2 hamstring strain – ultimately kept him out 6 weeks
April 10 2013 - shoulder injury; missed 7 days.
September 17th 2012 – oblique injury; missed 12 days.
July 7 2012 – arthro surgery for loose knee cartilage; missed 35 days in total. Missed periodic days due to his knee earlier in the season.
March 15th 2012 – knee soreness; missed 14 days.
March 11th 2012 –wrist soreness from HBP; out 5 days.
September 9, 2011 – aggravated hamstring; missed 7 days.
September 3, 2011 – hamstring injury; missed 6 days (except for one pinch hit appearance)
August 9, 2011- missed a game due to bruised toe
June 18, 2011- eye infection; missed 3 games but was bothered in night games for an extended period.
April 2, 2011 – hamstring; missed 7 days except for PH duty.
February 27, 2011- quad injury; missed 25 days.



Adding together the above, over the past 2.5 years he has been out due to injury for 120 days during the regular season and 44 days during Spring Training. Twelve different injuries.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:34 pm 
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I get the injury concerns, but you aren't paying for games played, you're paying for production. A 5.0 WAR player who gives you 120 games is better than a 2.0 WAR that plays 150. Stanton has already put up 5.0 WAR seasons. AJ Burnett, for as great as he was last year, put up a 2.2 WAR. Could Taillon get there? Sure. But it's not a guarantee.

Just heard somebody mention on 93.7 that they'd trade Kingham for Rios. If that's deemed an acceptable deal, how the HECK is Taillon, Polanco, Sanchez too much? If you trade a Top 100 for an old rental, that's being reckless with your assets. Rios wouldn't warrant more than a guy like Alex Dickerson IMO.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:50 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Just heard somebody mention on 93.7 that they'd trade Kingham for Rios. If that's deemed an acceptable deal, how the HECK is Taillon, Polanco, Sanchez too much? If you trade a Top 100 for an old rental, that's being reckless with your assets. Rios wouldn't warrant more than a guy like Alex Dickerson IMO.


Who is "somebody?" A radio guy said he'd personally trade Kingham for Rios or they said that the team had made that kind of statement? Assuming it's the former I think you answered your own question.

But since you brought up Rios, it's worth discussing other OFers besides Stanton who might be available assuming that Huntington doesn't sell the farm. Buster Olney mentioned Nate Schierholtz, also referencing that Huntington and Theo Epstein have a trading history. David DeJesus I assume will be a name that floats around but his career appears to be a downward trend to me. I think it would also be beneficial when speculating to know what is up with Tabata exactly and how close he is to a rehab assignment. I don't live in Pittsburgh so I don't hear local sports media, radio stations etc. but through the multiple social media outlets about the team I follow I haven't heard a single thing.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:00 pm 
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Just a random radio caller. Felt the price was too high for Stanton but Kingham was reasonable for the privilege of clearing a terrible contract off Chicago's books.

No idea on Tabata, they haven't said a whole lot one way or the other. Nothing official on Burnett either aside from his quote that he'd be ready for Seattle.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:33 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
You really think that three season of production from Stanton will be better than the production from Taillon, Polanco and Sanchez for 18 seasons between them? I have my doubts.


I think they can lock him up for longer than that, personally. They have the resources to give him a nice contract and still go through arbitration with their Alvarez, Walker, Marte, and the pitchers.

And you are basing this belief on?

How big a contract are we talking about here, and for how long?

Quote:
And honestly, yes I think his production will be superior to them. Too many prospects fizzle for me to expect the best case scenario for all of those guys. Stanton is 3 years younger than Sanchez, 2 years older than Polanco and Taillon, and already has two 30+ HR seasons under his belt at the MLB level. It's not like he doesn't have incredible upside himself.

You don't need the best case scenario for all three. All you need is something approaching the best case scenario from Taillon or Polanco. Anything over that is gravy.

I understand your point about prospects fizzling, I really do. I might be inclined to agree with you if we were talking about a bunch of highly rated prospects in A ball, but that isn't what we're talking about. We're talking about a guy who excelling at AAA (until called up today), another succeeding at AA, and a third who is off to a fine start in AA. The floor is a lot higher for players once they succeed in the high minors. The floor now for Sanchez is close to every day catcher and for Taillon it somewhere around a very good #3 starter. It's harder to say what Polanco's floor might be since he just arrived in AA, but his ceiling is Dave Parker according to at least one scout. It's just too much to give for Stanton.

Quote:
IMO, Taillon is likely to be traded in the future anyway, and the chances are slim-to-none that they'll be able to acquire a player at Giancarlo Stanton's level at that point in time.

Is Neal Huntington aware that he's going to trade Taillon?

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:46 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
I don't get this? For YEARS we have complained that we are sellers at the deadline and that we sell off our Major League roster every July and fill our minors up with PROSPECTS. For years everyone is sick of prospects and waiting 3, 4, 5 years until these guys are ready to play.

I have news for everyone....you know that 5 year plan that NH said he had? Well it's done and guess what, it worked. It's year 6 and we have a competitive baseball team. We have an average to above average starting rotation, a great bullpen, average defense and below average offense with the potential to be better. This year we are BUYERS at the deadline. And part of having a great farm system with depth isn't just so that you can wait 3-5 years for players to come up but its so you can trade when you need to so that your Major League team can be competitive.

Do I hope Polacno and Taillion will be studs, absolutely. Would I trade one of them for Stanton, I would. maybe not in the past when we were not a competitive team but I can honestly say now we are 1 or 2 players away from making a serious run at a championship. Put another front line starter in and give us a consistent anchor in the lineup and I think we are as good as any team in baseball.

Oh, and to correct some people in this thread, are you telling me 3.5 years of control isn't worth giving up players that MIGHT as good or better than Stanton? Are we really ready to not make this team better just in case we are as good 4 years from now?

Someone listed their criteria fro trading Taillion as

1. Young
2. Control
3. Great Player

I think Stanton is all of those things.

My proposal would be:

Greg Polanco
Alen Hanson
Tyler Glasnow
Stolmy Pimental
Jose Tabata
Travis Snider

For

Giancarlo Stanton
(Maybe a throw in or two)

I have news for you: Major League Baseball is not going out of business at the end of this year's World Series. The Pirates cannot afford to buy stars. They have to create their own. Trading away the guys who have the best chance of becoming stars is no way to create your own. I don't want to see the Pirates make a desperation run this year, I want to watch them make runs year after year after year.

The only way that you can say that we're 1 or 2 players away from a championship run is if you can show me that adding Stanton will guarantee that we will pass the Reds and Cards to take the division this year. Anything short of that and we're talking about a single game playoff. That's a coin toss. I'm not trading away the cream of the farm for a somewhat better chance of qualifying for a coin toss.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:48 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
When is the last time a team obtaining a veteran from the Pirates, even somebody as good as Bay, offered anything REMOTELY that good in return to the Pirates?


Excellent, EXCELLENT point. Wish I'd thought of it first. :lol:

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