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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:28 pm 
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Pearce and Lincoln were an entirely different level to Taillon and Polanco. No one ever really rated them highly. It was more of "we hope they can come in and be decent" vibe. Neither were ever considered elite prospects that would be mentioned in trades like this.

Polanco will more than likely put the outfield into a shuffle. Possibly Cutch into left and Marte into right. And he could be an elite player in CF, like Stanton is in RF. And I don't think you'd find more speed in an outfield anywhere.

The Pirates have depth in the system, sure, but Taillon is easily the best of the bunch now that Cole is in the show. That should tell you just how good his is and will be. Heredia, who knows. He's only 18. He could be the 3rd head in a monster rotation, or he could flame out due to injuries. Too much time and variables at play there. Kingham is good, too, but a the same level of prospect as Taillon? No. He's destined to be the 3rd, 4th, or 4th guy, depending how on if Locke continues to be great and how Heredia develops.

It seems like people forget that pitching beats good hitting when it comes to trades and prospects. I'd rather have a future, young rotation of Taillon/Cole/Locke/Kingham/* with Polanco, Marte, and Cutch in the outfield, than strip Taillon and Polanco out of that and just have Stanton (who will probably be on the DL anyway).


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:47 pm 
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Brad Lincoln was regarded as a Top 100 (#53) prospect as late as 2010. Steve Pearce was in our Top 5 organizational prospects for several consecutive years.

They weren't Top 25 guys, but they weren't viewed as potential guys who would totally flop, either.

I think, ordinarily, hoarding prospects is the way to go for a small market team. But they have a lot of cap space and Stanton is only 2 years older than both Polanco and Taillon, with a huge big league track record to go with it.

He's the rare case I'm okay with dealing guys for, because it takes a lot of luck to get a player who makes an impact like that for such a long time. Makes far more sense than hoping to get a guy in free agency that's in his late prime years, or trying to get an aging rental player, IMO.

This front office has done a pretty nice job with their big pitchers in free agency and trades. I think if you get a rotation of Cole, Kingham, Locke, Heredia/Glasnow it's a nice start. Then they can go and get a Liriano/Burnett/Wandy type of guy to fill the final role.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:12 pm 
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Pearce and Lincoln were products of a poor farm. That's not the case right now.

I don't trade prospects like Taillon and Polanco for anyone, especially someone with a history of injury problems.

There's no "cap space". The Pirates pay what they can.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:27 pm 
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Agreed


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:32 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Steve Pearce? Brad Lincoln? HUGE seasons in the high minors....just couldn't put it together in the majors.

They were NEVER considered blue-chip prospects, apart from perhaps Lincoln very early on, before the TJ surgery.

All superstar MLB players (from Kershaw to McCutchen to Miggy to Trout to Harper to Verlander, etc.) were top-tier, blue-chip prospects in high A and AA.

That does not mean that they therefore are guaranteed of becoming elite major league players. Look, all dogs are mammals, but not all mammals are dogs.

But the point is that Taillon and Polanco are at that "elite" prospect level. Their ceiling is extremely high. One blogger mentioned that he spoke to a scout about Polanco, and asked if Polanco was as intriguing a prospect as the Cardinals' Taveras (expecting the scout to dismiss the notion). The scout replied that Polanco has more power.

A couple weeks ago, I had a scout tell me the 6-foot-4, left-swining Polanco had more power potential than St. Louis’ prized prospect Oscar Taveras. That’s extremely high praise. He might not be a better pure hitter than Taveras, but who is?. Still, Polanco might be toolsier than Taveras.

http://blog.triblive.com/bucco-blog/201 ... -baseball/

Notice that nobody is suggesting that the Cardinals trade Taveras, though their production at SS is woeful. Why? Because Taveras' upside is so significant that the Cardinals have no interest in moving him.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 6:47 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
They were NEVER considered blue-chip prospects, apart from perhaps Lincoln very early on, before the TJ surgery.

All superstar MLB players (from Kershaw to McCutchen to Miggy to Trout to Harper to Verlander, etc.) were top-tier, blue-chip prospects in high A and AA.

That does not mean that they therefore are guaranteed of becoming elite major league players. Look, all dogs are mammals, but not all mammals are dogs.

But the point is that Taillon and Polanco are at that "elite" prospect level. Their ceiling is extremely high. One blogger mentioned that he spoke to a scout about Polanco, and asked if Polanco was as intriguing a prospect as the Cardinals' Taveras (expecting the scout to dismiss the notion). The scout replied that Polanco has more power.

A couple weeks ago, I had a scout tell me the 6-foot-4, left-swining Polanco had more power potential than St. Louis’ prized prospect Oscar Taveras. That’s extremely high praise. He might not be a better pure hitter than Taveras, but who is?. Still, Polanco might be toolsier than Taveras.

http://blog.triblive.com/bucco-blog/201 ... -baseball/

Notice that nobody is suggesting that the Cardinals trade Taveras, though their production at SS is woeful. Why? Because Taveras' upside is so significant that the Cardinals have no interest in moving him.


I think Polanco could be very good. I don't think either he or Taveras will be nearly as good as Stanton. Think Taillon could be good too, but the hit rate on pitchers is so sporadic that I can't automatically assume he'll be an All-Star, let alone a guy with Hall of Fame potential.

Maybe I'm just a bit higher on Stanton than most, but I truly believe he's a generational type of player who you don't develop without luck. I don't think holding Polanco and Taillon will cripple the franchise, but I think trading for Stanton is a lower risk move and one that they can afford. Wandy, AJ, and Barmes will be coming off the books soon enough and there's no reason they can't spend ~85M a year in their contention years, IMO.

Then, you have Cutch and Stanton locked up, trade off your pitchers and other hitters, and replace them with the other guys in the pipeline and the prospects you get back. Pretty much the Tampa Bay model to a T, but with an additional core piece.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:01 pm 
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RTJR wrote:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/37195/pirates-need-to-make-big-pitch-for-stanton

The short version: The Pirates have a bad OPS at right field, so they should trade Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco, Tony Sanchez, and an additional prospect to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton...

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Insane.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:02 pm 
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Ralphie wrote:
We do need to trade for an outfielder, but not someone like Stanton. No way would I give up as much as you mentioned above for him.

We need to trade for more of a rental type player. A veteran near the end of his contract playing for a team not in the race. Someone who could be had for a much lesser package. Someone like Soriano.

How about someone who can actually hit and play the outfield instead?

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:02 pm 
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nad69dan wrote:
Maybe not Taillon, but what about Tabata, Heredia, and Bell for Stanton?

I don't think Miami would be interested in that.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:03 pm 
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Corsair wrote:
As far as I am concerened the only "Untouchable" is Taillon.

With the possibility of not having both Burnett and Wandy next year. No way is Taillon involved in any trade.

I don't trade Polanco either. It looks to me like he'll be our right fielder this time next year.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:04 pm 
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TheShark wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
That would be highway robbery.


For whom?


The Bucs. Handily.

Generally that trade would be a steal and in comparison to a Taillon+GP+TS+player X deal even moreso.

If the Bucs could get away with landing a 30+ HR/30+ XBH/.830+ OPS/4+ WAR player without having to give up their #1 pitching and hitting prospects as well as their potential C of the future it would be a major coup.

Tabata's ceiling has fallen. He's a fourth OF or at best a replacement level (~2 WAR) one. Heredia and Bell both project high, but are at least a year behind their counterparts Taillon/GP. They fit the Marlins long term/cheap talent plans moreso than the Bucs potential 'playoff window'. The fourth player in the deal could be Allie and it would still be a decisive 'win' for the Bucs.

There's a good enough chance that Taillon could be an Ace and that GP may very well be able to play any OF position. Therefore the Bucs landing Giancarlo without giving up their best trade chips would be an A+++ deal.

With Stanton in the fold that moves Snider/Presley/OF X (Sands? Lambo?) to spot duty until GP is ready in/by 2014 at which time he's a HUGE luxury on what should be a pennant-challenging team.

TheShark wrote:
You're going to have Meadows in the picture now but I'm standing pat with Bell and Polanco.


One more reason why Bell might be 'Robbie Grossman expendable'.

---

Having said all this, there's little chance the Bucs land Stanton in general---much less for Tabata/Bell/Heredia/Player X.

And to answer OP: No, the Bucs should NOT give up Taillon+GP+TS+X. That's too damned much.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:06 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Notice that nobody is suggesting that the Cardinals trade Taveras, though their production at SS is woeful. Why? Because Taveras' upside is so significant that the Cardinals have no interest in moving him.


Actually, Jonah Keri has mentioned that a Tavares for Profar deal would be mutually beneficially to both the Cardinals and Rangers (although he admits it would NEVER happen).

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:10 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
RTJR wrote:
I wouldn't, not for what Taillon and Polanco will bring to the table. People say "but they're prospects and prospects aren't a guarantee", but honestly, not many guys fail in the big leagues after looking like these two once they have a couple years under their belt in the minors. Usually people can spot something wrong or may have questions, but these two are pretty much universally called rock solid.


Steve Pearce? Brad Lincoln? HUGE seasons in the high minors....just couldn't put it together in the majors.

That's more a rhetorical question than anything, I do agree that Taillon and Polanco will be good.

There are very few guys I'd be willing to trade them for, as any player would need to be 1) young 2) controllable 3) very good.

So really, I'm looking at Profar, Stanton, Segura, Harper, Trout, Sale, Harvey.

Stanton, IMO, is a better player in RF than Polanco will be. That's not denigrating Polanco's abilities, Stanton is currently on a Hall of Fame pace and Polanco isn't really a RF by nature. And then I look at Taillon, and while he's a good pitcher, the Pirates have a TON of depth there.

I think if you can get a ready-made generational type of talent, you do it. Stanton, Harper, and Trout are the only guys I'd be willing to part with both Taillon and Polanco for. Again, this is a guy with 100 career homeruns before the conclusion of his age 23 season, with a solid BA to boot.....just absurdly, absurdly good in my eyes.

You really think that three season of production from Stanton will be better than the production from Taillon, Polanco and Sanchez for 18 seasons between them? I have my doubts.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:20 pm 
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StarlingArcher wrote:
Brad Lincoln was regarded as a Top 100 (#53) prospect as late as 2010. Steve Pearce was in our Top 5 organizational prospects for several consecutive years.

Brad Lincoln never posted an ERA of less than 4.00 in AAA in his life.

The fact that Steve Pearce was once in the Pirates top 5 says more about the state of the Pirates farm system five years ago than it does about Pearce's talent.

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They weren't Top 25 guys, but they weren't viewed as potential guys who would totally flop, either.

Taillon is viewed as as at least a number 2 starter, and I've read quotes from a major league scout comparing Polanco to Dave Parker. Morris was viewed as having a ceiling of a number 2 starter and Pearce, well, he doesn't really even belong in the discussion. Pick a time anywhere in his minor league career and he wouldn't be able to crack the top 20 in the system today, maybe even not the top 30.

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I think, ordinarily, hoarding prospects is the way to go for a small market team. But they have a lot of cap space and Stanton is only 2 years older than both Polanco and Taillon, with a huge big league track record to go with it.

He's the rare case I'm okay with dealing guys for, because it takes a lot of luck to get a player who makes an impact like that for such a long time. Makes far more sense than hoping to get a guy in free agency that's in his late prime years, or trying to get an aging rental player, IMO.

If only one of those guys become half of a Giancarlo Stanton, the Pirates lose the trade.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:25 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
You really think that three season of production from Stanton will be better than the production from Taillon, Polanco and Sanchez for 18 seasons between them? I have my doubts.


I think they can lock him up for longer than that, personally. They have the resources to give him a nice contract and still go through arbitration with their Alvarez, Walker, Marte, and the pitchers. And honestly, yes I think his production will be superior to them. Too many prospects fizzle for me to expect the best case scenario for all of those guys. Stanton is 3 years younger than Sanchez, 2 years older than Polanco and Taillon, and already has two 30+ HR seasons under his belt at the MLB level. It's not like he doesn't have incredible upside himself.

IMO, Taillon is likely to be traded in the future anyway, and the chances are slim-to-none that they'll be able to acquire a player at Giancarlo Stanton's level at that point in time.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:33 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Brad Lincoln never posted an ERA of less than 4.00 in AAA in his life.

The fact that Steve Pearce was once in the Pirates top 5 says more about the state of the Pirates farm system five years ago than it does about Pearce's talent.

My main point there, was that with those credentials and rankings, you wouldn't have expected those players to flop as badly as they did. If Polanco and Taillon don't live up to their rankings (as happened with guys who put up numbers/good prospect rankings at the AAA level) then they're not as well off as with Giancarlo Stanton.

Taillon is viewed as as at least a number 2 starter, and I've read quotes from a major league scout comparing Polanco to Dave Parker. Morris was viewed as having a ceiling of a number 2 starter and Pearce, well, he doesn't really even belong in the discussion. Pick a time anywhere in his minor league career and he wouldn't be able to crack the top 20 in the system today, maybe even not the top 30.

Maybe not, but again, my point was that those still aren't guys who, based on prospect rankings and numbers, you'd expect to fail as miserably as they did at the ML level. I don't think Taillon or Polanco flop, but don't think they become potential Hall of Famers, either.

If only one of those guys become half of a Giancarlo Stanton, the Pirates lose the trade.

I'm really not sure on that one. If that one guy becomes half of Stanton, and the others don't, you're well ahead of the game. You can get a 2.5 WAR player in free agency. You can't readily get a 5.0WAR player though, as the Pirates.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:33 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Actually, Jonah Keri has mentioned that a Tavares for Profar deal would be mutually beneficially to both the Cardinals and Rangers (although he admits it would NEVER happen).

So the Cardinals should get the best young prospect in baseball, and a MI at that, for their prospect.

While the Pirates deal not 1, but 2 top-end prospects and get a guy who can't stay healthy.

Pass. Polanco and Taillon have too much potential.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 7:38 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Notice that nobody is suggesting that the Cardinals trade Taveras, though their production at SS is woeful. Why? Because Taveras' upside is so significant that the Cardinals have no interest in moving him.


Actually, Jonah Keri has mentioned that a Tavares for Profar deal would be mutually beneficially to both the Cardinals and Rangers (although he admits it would NEVER happen).


Yeah Jim Bowden did a commentary on that and said he couldn't imagine a prospect-for-prospect trade going down like that because the risks are too high and the stakes are magnified. It was interesting to hear the breakdown on his part.

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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:04 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
One more reason why Bell might be 'Robbie Grossman expendable'.


No way. I get that you're using a hypothetical in shipping him off as a package to acquire an elite-caliber talent so you weren't comparing him to Grossman as a player, but there was a reason Grossman was expendable and why (I think) the Pirates feel Bell is not. Bell would have likely been a first round draft pick had he not sent the letter out to all MLB teams that he was committed to Texas and the Pirates managed to draft him in the second and sign him anyway. Grossman had awesome plate discipline which was very exciting, but not much more. A lot of the excitement was over how he performed in the Arizona Fall League as well. His numbers looked like they wouldn't translate very well to the majors (and up to this point, that has been the case). Bell has legitimate power and was projected as a middle of the order guy when he was drafted, and has rebounded from the surgery/injury nicely.

That's just me. I take my chances with the (few) legitimate hitting prospects we have. I agree regarding Heredia with Glasnow and Kingham now taking significant steps forward. I would completely be open for a deal but I completely disagree with saying that would be a steal for the Pirates. I just have faith in Bell. Maybe if you replace one of those guys with someone like Hansen I'd feel a little bitter. And a 23-year old with back and leg issues worries me.


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 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:06 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Taillon is a legitimate candidate to become a No. 1 starting pitcher. He has posted a 2.89 ERA and 77 K's in 71 IP in AA at age 21.

Polanco combines speed, power, and plate discipline, is now one of the best OF prospects in baseball. He has posted a combined .318/.371/.479 in the minors this year, with 18 2B's, 6 HR's, and 27 SB's in 62 minor league games this year and is doing well so far in AA at age 21.

Two of the best players in the Eastern League, performing well, with tremendous physical tools, and both age 21.

The Pirates are not a franchise that can afford to trade those players. They are a franchise that needs to develop and keep those players.

At age 21 Stanton was in the major leagues and hit 34 homeruns.
The guy is 23 and already has hit 100 homeruns he is 6'6 240, and the best power hitter in all of baseball.
I would rather see us try to hold onto Polanco in a potential trade.
Give up Taillon, Hanson Snider/Tabata, and Tony Sanchez for at least 3 seasons of the best power hitter in the game? Yes

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