Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Mon Sep 01, 2014 8:22 am

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 71 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:54 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2397
Location: Tejas
I'm basing it on the belief that, as currently constructed, the Pirates could offer Stanton something like 7 years/100M and be able to easily afford him plus all of their guys they'll need to go to arbitration with, and also get some free agents as well. The Pirates are NOT paying the maximum amount possible right now. And that's okay, they have a lot of good players who they're fortunate enough to have at league minimum and they have a lot of young assets who they need to evaluate before moving forward. But they aren't a team who is going to have a payroll capped at what it is this year, plus they have some major contracts coming off the books by the end of next year with Barmes, Wandy, AJ, Martin, Grilli, and Liriano.

I think you give him 7/100, which is extremely fair when buying out his arb years and potentially very team friendly towards the end of the contract, and it's solid value. You lock him up to age 30 and get his best years and then he still has time to go and get another big contract before he's done.

Still not sure how Taillon or Polanco coming near their best is all you need. AJ Burnett put up a 2.2 WAR last year and was a fantastic player....Stanton put up a 5.8. How much better is Taillon going to be than Burnett? That's not knocking either guy, more underscoring how valuable Stanton is, even over a shortened season. Polanco's been incredibly impressive. But I just can't say he's going to be as good as Stanton. Like. I said, best young bat in all of baseball and at a heavily bat-first position.

I have no idea if Huntington is even considering what to do with Taillon. But, the typical strategy is to not get into big contract extensions with pitchers as a small market team. They're more injury prone, more apt to huge performance fluctuations, and less predictable in the future. So, based on how this front office has played things (by the book) I would think they'd avoid massive bidding wars and cornering themselves into a huge, unmovable contract.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:10 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5524
Bucfan wrote:
Polanco could be better than Stanton. Seriously. Less HR's, but much better BA, more doubles, more walks, much better speed, more stolen bases, higher OBP due to the superior BA and great eye at the plate, an OPS of .850 plus (.375 OBP, .475 slugging).

Oh, and he is here for 6 years, not 3.

Oh, and he is not injury-plagued.


O RLY?!

Then why wouldn't the Pirates let him participate in those Navy SEAL drills last year, huh?! ;) :D :lol:

(Could not be more sarcastic)

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:13 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2397
Location: Tejas
NSMaster56 wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Polanco could be better than Stanton. Seriously. Less HR's, but much better BA, more doubles, more walks, much better speed, more stolen bases, higher OBP due to the superior BA and great eye at the plate, an OPS of .850 plus (.375 OBP, .475 slugging).

Oh, and he is here for 6 years, not 3.

Oh, and he is not injury-plagued.


O RLY?!

Then why wouldn't the Pirates let him participate in those Navy SEAL drills last year, huh?! ;) :D :lol:

(Could not be more sarcastic)


But in all seriousness, he missed all of the end of last season and a portion f this season with ankle injuries (which is why he wasn't in the SEAL drills last year).

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:14 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5524
rellimie wrote:
When it comes right down to it, you have to ask yourself two questions.

1. Do you think you have a shot at a championship this year?
2. Does player A (Stanton) help you win said championship?

To me, a championship is damn near priceless.


You could probably extend that Championship window a year or two at least.

Assuming that the Bucs keep the bulk of this corps together, and that it maintains current production and/or improves upon it, the Bucs can be a playoff contending team through 2016. That was always NH's 'vision', at least.

If Taillon and GP do deliver as MLers, and it's possible that they'll be up next year, that window could even be extended out another year or two.

A tad optimistic perhaps, but possible.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:16 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2397
Location: Tejas
And FWIW, from Sawchik:

@Sawchik_Trib: Scout to @jperrotto on Giancarlo: "There isn’t anyone who could command a bigger haul in a trade..I’d give up my whole farm system for him"

Just to balance out the scout view since it's been brought up for Polanco's support.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:21 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 am
Posts: 3138
StarlingArcher wrote:
No idea on Tabata, they haven't said a whole lot one way or the other.


Looks like he is starting the rehab now as he was just sent to Indianapolis according to P2.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:23 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5524
rellimie wrote:
I don't get this? For YEARS we have complained that we are sellers at the deadline and that we sell off our Major League roster every July and fill our minors up with PROSPECTS. For years everyone is sick of prospects and waiting 3, 4, 5 years until these guys are ready to play.


Yes, this is true.

The difference in this case seems to be that the Bucs have a deep enough system right now to either replenish the Big leagues and/or extend their window of contention. The more they trade away the less likely that becomes.

We also can't overlook that, among other factors, A.J. and Wandy are getting up in age and that Liriano is only under contract through next year. With the attrition rate of young pitchers, you'd like to have as many 'lottery tickets' as possible should those guys either move on or begin to break down.

If the Pirates were merely one player away from making/winning a WS, maybe you think about making a 'super offer' for Giancarlo. Right now and realistically, it's probably more accurate to say that the Pirates should stick to their guns (building through the minors, making mid-level moves) and only trade what they deem 'expendable' or 'replenishable' to add to what they have.

This time next year maybe things will have changed, but it's too soon to try and make a splash that might turn into an Adam Jones/Erik Bedard fiasco.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:32 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5524
StarlingArcher wrote:
Still not sure how Taillon or Polanco coming near their best is all you need. AJ Burnett put up a 2.2 WAR last year and was a fantastic player....Stanton put up a 5.8. How much better is Taillon going to be than Burnett? That's not knocking either guy, more underscoring how valuable Stanton is, even over a shortened season. Polanco's been incredibly impressive. But I just can't say he's going to be as good as Stanton. Like. I said, best young bat in all of baseball and at a heavily bat-first position.


Yeah, it's a tough breakdown and/or guess.

The 'tipping point' for me would be adding TS to a deal.

As someone else said, barring regression, he's the catcher of the future.

So what's better:

5+ WAR/season from Stanton for three years, at a position that the Bucs may be able to fill with moderate production (Bell/GP/etc., 2+WAR) for six years

OR

2+WAR from Taillon (assuming he is the 'real deal')
2+WAR from GP (the same)
2+WAR from Tony Sanchez (a tad optismistic value assumption, but you get the idea)

Though I cannot say for certain, it feels like SP and C (and/or SS should Hansen be dangled) are harder positions to fill with productive players than RF. Or, put another way, SP/C/SS are positions a team will have a hard time competing without [a compentent player] compared to a RF where someone like Snider or Tabata, while 'replacement level' can be enough provided you have guys at other key positions producing.

It isn't that Stanton isn't good enough, that the Bucs can't afford to trade for him or that he is/isn't the 'missing piece of the puzzle', it's some combination of all of those things. When you throw in an unknown 'competitive window' and unclear comparison value of positions, it becomes extremely difficult to know if going after him is the 'right' move to make.

The only thing that appears certain would be that if the Bucs did trade for him, it would be a career defining move for NH (and co.).

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:40 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:17 pm
Posts: 2397
Location: Tejas
I think it's significantly easier to sign a 2.0 WAR player in free agency, regardless of position, than any 5.0 WAR player. And again, we're assuming that Stanton is 5.0 WAR because we're projecting only 120 games and no projection.

A 2.0 WAR player, you're looking maybe like 8M tops. Market value is less but it'll get bid up.

I think you have a ton of arms in the ranks. Enough that I think they can make a solid 4-man staff and then sign a guy they might need for 2-3 years.

I'm also operating under the assumption that they can get Stanton extended. 3 years of him isn't worth it, but I really think something like 7/100 is very fair for both.

_________________
Moneyball Saves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:09 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5524
StarlingArcher wrote:
I think it's significantly easier to sign a 2.0 WAR player in free agency, regardless of position, than any 5.0 WAR player. And again, we're assuming that Stanton is 5.0 WAR because we're projecting only 120 games and no projection.


Well, yeah.

But consider the possible trade-offs of a high WAR RF and 2-or-more WAR SP+C+third position player. Then consider what those 2-WAR players at SP and C (and/or SS if Hansen is dealt) cost.

Russell Martin was barely a 2 WAR catcher in NY and look at what he cost on the open market (2 years @ $15 M) and how he's improved the Pirates.

A.J. was has been a 2 WAR SP since his days in Toronto and he commanded $16.5 M a year! Lucky for the Bucs the Yanks are paying most of his salary!

So if we assume that TS and Taillon can be just as good, if not better (in the case of Taillon) than, those two, you're essentially paying 1/10th the price for two players over six years who can give you key production compared to open-market money for replacements (who you hope maintaing 2-ish WAR) + arb $ and 5+ WAR for three years of Stanton... when a 2-ish WAR RF (which Polanco could be and then some) might be sufficient enough for the Bucs to make a playoff and/or WS push.

In terms of 'value', trading Taillon+GP+TS seems like a terrible one, both $ and WAR wise---unless Stanton is an 8 WAR player/MVP candidate year in and out (and/or those three prospects go bust). It's an extremely high 'premium' to pay.

If the Pirates traded Hansen instead of TS/GP/Taillon, maybe the Bucs should ask for Hech back. He's been a bust so far and maybe the Phish would unload him. Then at least you'd get back some cheap and potential value player at a key position to plug in in lieu of losing a potential stud.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: ESPN: Pirates need to trade for Stanton
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:33 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:36 pm
Posts: 82
"When you peel back the speculation, and you explore the actual facts, you will find that in Stanton’s case, the 23-year-old is not on the market. Taking it a step further, he might not be for quite a while, meaning at least another couple of years.

According to two well connected sources, the Marlins consider Stanton as a building block, not a trade chip.

One source called recent Stanton trade speculation, “laughable and lies.” "

http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/2013/06/2 ... rade-chip/


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 71 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Yahoo [Bot] and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits