Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Mon Dec 22, 2014 4:29 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 12 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 1:54 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 am
Posts: 3138
Yeah, yeah, yet another thread for everyone to rehash their coveted Pedro Alvarez opinions.

Anyway, sticking to the subject matter, Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout wrote this article tonight: http://www.bucsdugout.com/2013/6/17/444 ... o#comments

In summary, he has given up all hope on Alvarez as a player, describing even the idea of a hypothetical extension as a "joke" and taking a page out of Kovavevic's book by comparing such a feat as the worst move the Pirates could make since the Matt Morris trade (to be fair to Wilmoth here, obviously DK comparing the Martin signing to MM is a completely different thing than the idea of a hypothetical extension on an under-performing player, but still).

To address the elephant in the room, yes, as of now I would agree with the thesis and wouldn't agree with extending him. A lot of what else was written is where I take exception.

For starters there are a couple of bizarre things written that I disagree with. For example, while the article could and should have been perfectly suited in the context of his offense, he mentions Alvarez's weight and brings up the old argument of whether or not he will ultimately end up switching to first due to his body type (this example was part of an ongoing point that his un-athleticism will be a problem when he gets into his 30s). Considering how well Alvarez has improved at his position I think this is, to put it simply, a moot point and probably unfair to Alvarez who you could potentially actually now call a strong defender at third. There are also the facts that the league has several similarly-sized players at said position and the fact that a position switch is ultimately kind of a pointless thing to hold as a criticism.

Secondly, he dismissed Alvarez based on his career BA up to this point. It doesn't take a Saber-minded person to know that other numbers tell a different story in the case of a power hitter like Alvarez. We've been over this a million times, but given that we now more or less know what we have in Alvarez as a player (i.e. we're not constantly referencing his potential as a no. 2 draft pick rather than the reality), the OPS figures if you take out the awful, injury-ridden 2011 season have been .788/.784 and .737 this year with history telling us those numbers will improve (like the .981 OPS the first half of this month so far). Those are far from bad numbers from his position.

Obviously, it's easy for such an article to be written. My response sounds like I'm merely defending Alvarez which isn't my intent, as I previously said I don't disagree that an extension right now would be a bright idea nor am I ignoring his faults as a player. My exception is more that it's too dismissive of too many angles to be taken seriously. Like, for example, that he has one full healthy season under his belt up to this point. There are obviously external points to be taken into consideration re: an extension due to the fact that his agent is Scott Boras, etc. And, obviously, there is no real proof that the Pirates are actually in such talks with Alvarez or need to be for the time being. And Wilmoth admits this in the introduction, apparently it was just addressed because the topic keeps arising in the media. Ultimately though, considering the improvements Alvarez has made, the lack of internal options for the time being at such a position and a general disagreeance with a lot of the points that aren't simply the obvious "Alvarez is a three true outcome player who might not improve" ones.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 4:06 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 5:37 pm
Posts: 567
I am far from sold on Alvarez but what is his split over the past 30 days? His numbers seem to be on an upward swing and, given his power, RBI numbers and improved defense, the 250 average he hit for as a rookie would be more than adequate.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5558
Location: Pittsburgh
TheShark wrote:
In summary, he has given up all hope on Alvarez as a player, describing even the idea of a hypothetical extension as a "joke" and taking a page out of Kovavevic's book by comparing such a feat as the worst move the Pirates could make since the Matt Morris trade (to be fair to Wilmoth here, obviously DK comparing the Martin signing to MM is a completely different thing than the idea of a hypothetical extension on an under-performing player, but still).

You're really mischaracterizing what he said about Alvarez as a player. His whole point is that the Pirates already have Alvarez through age 29, and that he has several characteristics that are common to players who age poorly. I agree with him. Extending Alvarez to age 30 and beyond is a big gamble, unless you're getting a huge bargain. Scott Boras is not noted for getting his players to sign contracts that are huge bargains for their employers.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 7:58 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5711
It's an interesting thought, not because it's worthy of another Pedro 'good or bad?' disection, but rather because 'bigger picture' it's arguably pivotal.

Should Pedro remain under control until 2017 (assuming he's not traded or doesn't break down/fizzle out), that should cover the bulk of his hypothetical productive seasons.

Given what we know/can expect from him, and barring breakthrough, he's a 2---maybe 3---WAR player. If he can sustain that a few years into his 30's, might he be worth the cost?

The answer is complicated, because we all know that Boras is the type unlikely to sign an extension NOW which might become a 'bargain' and also because while we know Pedro's streakiness, does he? How much is he willing to bet on his own---and/or the Bucs---future? Even before we start talking $, that's really the crux of any potential deal.

It's further complicated because until a clear successor arises, do the Bucs really want to risk losing a steady 2+ WAR (and possible cleanup) player in what could be a competitive window?

Ideally, if some fair deal were offered to 'buy back/into' his arb years and extend maybe 2 years past them (into hypothetical FA)---something in the realm where you pay him as a 3 WAR player (maxing out at $8-10 M)---it would help provide stability for this Bucs regime.

Of course, with 3B being a thin position, teams earning more $ with TV deals and the Boras factor, Pedro might very well be worth some ridiculous overpay on the 'open market' which isn't 'cost effective' (or at least not to this mid-market team).

Unless he rounds out his game, $8 M is fair value with $9-10 M being an overpay. Anything above $11 is desperation and anything close to Longoria ($14-18) is absurd---for any team.

The only way it becomes foolish for the Bucs to extend Pedro is if he falls of of a cliff like Daryl Strawberry or if they somehow give in to the demands of Scott Boras and overpay/overextend him Vernon Wells style.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:05 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5558
Location: Pittsburgh
NSMaster56 wrote:
It's an interesting thought, not because it's worthy of another Pedro 'good or bad?' disection, but rather because 'bigger picture' it's arguably pivotal.

Should Pedro remain under control until 2017 (assuming he's not traded or doesn't break down/fizzle out), that should cover the bulk of his hypothetical productive seasons.

Given what we know/can expect from him, and barring breakthrough, he's a 2---maybe 3---WAR player. If he can sustain that a few years into his 30's, might he be worth the cost?

The answer is complicated, because we all know that Boras is the type unlikely to sign an extension NOW which might become a 'bargain' and also because while we know Pedro's streakiness, does he? How much is he willing to bet on his own---and/or the Bucs---future? Even before we start talking $, that's really the crux of any potential deal.

It's further complicated because until a clear successor arises, do the Bucs really want to risk losing a steady 2+ WAR (and possible cleanup) player in what could be a competitive window?

Ideally, if some fair deal were offered to 'buy back/into' his arb years and extend maybe 2 years past them (into hypothetical FA)---something in the realm where you pay him as a 3 WAR player (maxing out at $8-10 M)---it would help provide stability for this Bucs regime.

Of course, with 3B being a thin position, teams earning more $ with TV deals and the Boras factor, Pedro might very well be worth some ridiculous overpay on the 'open market' which isn't 'cost effective' (or at least not to this mid-market team).

Unless he rounds out his game, $8 M is fair value with $9-10 M being an overpay. Anything above $11 is desperation and anything close to Longoria ($14-18) is absurd---for any team.

The only way it becomes foolish for the Bucs to extend Pedro is if he falls of of a cliff like Daryl Strawberry or if they somehow give in to the demands of Scott Boras and overpay/overextend him Vernon Wells style.

I don't think that there's a chance in hell that Boras sells out any free agent years for $10M, let along $8M. He'd be looking for money in the neighborhood of Ryan Zimmerman.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 8:09 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5711
sisyphus wrote:
I don't think that there's a chance in hell that Boras sells out any free agent years for $10M, let along $8M. He'd be looking for money in the neighborhood of Ryan Zimmerman.


You're probably right. The smart money says you are.

If that is the case, woe to whoever pays that money. Serious, serious woe.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:26 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5558
Location: Pittsburgh
NSMaster56 wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
I don't think that there's a chance in hell that Boras sells out any free agent years for $10M, let along $8M. He'd be looking for money in the neighborhood of Ryan Zimmerman.


You're probably right. The smart money says you are.

If that is the case, woe to whoever pays that money. Serious, serious woe.

Might be worthwhile talking to Boras about it anyway. You never know. Maybe they agree on a deal to buy out his arbitration.

Also, don't forget that I'm the guy who insisted that McCutchen would never agree to a deal buying out any of his free agent years.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 7:51 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 5:27 pm
Posts: 2151
Hopefully Bell and/or Allie are slugging by then. I don't think Boras will keep Pedro within the Bucs' budget.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2013 8:13 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5558
Location: Pittsburgh
RTJR wrote:
Hopefully Bell and/or Allie are slugging by then. I don't think Boras will keep Pedro within the Bucs' budget.

Think about it. If Alvarez rates big FA bucks, that means the Pirates have benefitted from superior performance throughout his arbitration years. They'll get the cream. The team that signs him will, at best, get what they pay for, and if he falls into an early decline, they'll end up paying for production that the Pirates already have in their pockets.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 1:49 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:44 pm
Posts: 10763
I think sisyphus has the right approach - buy out the arbitration years. Me? I think they should consider buying out arbitration plus 1, like they did with McCutchen.

Age 30 is not an age that gives me the concerns that those above 30 do. Get his 7 best years, and then get a draft pick when he leaves.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5558
Location: Pittsburgh
Bucfan wrote:
I think sisyphus has the right approach - buy out the arbitration years. Me? I think they should consider buying out arbitration plus 1, like they did with McCutchen.

Age 30 is not an age that gives me the concerns that those above 30 do. Get his 7 best years, and then get a draft pick when he leaves.

Arbitration +1 wouldn't be bad, but I think it might drive the price a lot higher.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BD article on potential Alvarez extension
PostPosted: Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:02 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5711
What is the max money you guys would want to see the Bucs pay Pedro?

And, since wanting is not the same as having, what do you think is the likely price he'd either ask for, win in arb or command if he negotiated a deal which bought out his arb and/or arb+1?

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 12 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], J_C_Steel, JollyRoger, val and 7 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits