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 Post subject: Pedro
PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 7:46 am 
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Let me preface by saying I'm a huge Pedro fan and tend to defend him probably more than I should. That being said I'm starting to wonder if Alvarez is going to be another Adam Dunn at least from an offensive standpoint.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 8:17 am 
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Another Pedro Alvarez thread.... :D, not that I mind it. Pedro showed yesterday that he just needs to hit the ball where its pitched. He showed patience yesterday and even earned a walk. Pitchers will always be careful with him because of his power threat. The strikeouts, they're going to happen because he's a power hitter with a big long swing. With a little help with the wind and he would've hit another homerun.

Adam Dunn has earned the reputation as a guy that can hit the ball a mile but also as a guy who's pull happy and can't lay off down and away.

Pedro can't be that guy. He has too much power to all fields. Then again Dunn has stuck around awhile.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 10:33 am 
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Adam Dunn's been a better player than Alvarez overall and in terms of where they are by age.

Pedro's 26 years old. When Dunn was 26, he put up this line with the Reds -- .234/.365/.490 with 40 home runs.

Pedro broke into the league at 23 years old and put up this line -- .256/.326/.461 with 16 home runs in 347 at-bats. In Dunn's 23-year-old season, he was in his third year and put up this line -- .215/.354/.465.

Overall, Dunn's career numbers are very respectable -- .238/.368/.497. And that includes his ridiculously awful 2011 season and his awful start to 2013. Pedro's career numbers pale by comparison -- .233/.305/.423.

I'd LOOOOOOVE for Pedro to do offensively in 2013-17 what Dunn did from 2004-2008. That would be spectacular. Over those seasons (Dunn's age 24 through 28 seasons), Dunn hit 46, 40, 40, 40, and 40 home runs each season, and boasted OPSs of .956, .927, .855, .940, and .898. Pedro has yet to have a season where he finishes with an OPS of .800.

So fears that Pedro may "become Adam Dunn" should rather be hopes that Pedro can "become Adam Dunn," at least with the stick.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 10:39 am 
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He's got the Dunn-effortless-power swing down for sure.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 10:43 am 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Adam Dunn's been a better player than Alvarez overall and in terms of where they are by age.

Pedro's 26 years old. When Dunn was 26, he put up this line with the Reds -- .234/.365/.490 with 40 home runs.

Pedro broke into the league at 23 years old and put up this line -- .256/.326/.461 with 16 home runs in 347 at-bats. In Dunn's 23-year-old season, he was in his third year and put up this line -- .215/.354/.465.

Overall, Dunn's career numbers are very respectable -- .238/.368/.497. And that includes his ridiculously awful 2011 season and his awful start to 2013. Pedro's career numbers pale by comparison -- .233/.305/.423.

I'd LOOOOOOVE for Pedro to do offensively in 2013-17 what Dunn did from 2004-2008. That would be spectacular. Over those seasons (Dunn's age 24 through 28 seasons), Dunn hit 46, 40, 40, 40, and 40 home runs each season, and boasted OPSs of .956, .927, .855, .940, and .898. Pedro has yet to have a season where he finishes with an OPS of .800.

So fears that Pedro may "become Adam Dunn" should rather be hopes that Pedro can "become Adam Dunn," at least with the stick.


I never said I feared he would be Adam Dunn, I just wondered. If he it's 40 HR and 100 RBI I don't care if he bats 220.

another example is Dan Uggla in 2011


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 8:19 pm 
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So many high power/low contact comparisons can be made; take your pick:

Rob Deer
Dave Kingman
Carlos Pena
Adam Dunn
Mark Reynolds
Pat Burrell
Richie Sexson
Greg Vaughn
Jay Buhner
You get the idea...

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 8:16 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Jay Buhner


"What did you trade Jay Buhner for? He 30 home runs, over 100 RBI's.... He's got a rocket for an arm... You don't know what the hell you're doing!"

"My baseball people told me 'Ken Phelps' ..."

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 2:40 pm 
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Batting average - not a good barometer of offensive contribution.

Dunn posts low BA's but very good OBP, slugging and OPS.

If a player posts a .230 BA but walks 100 times, has a .350 OBP, hits home runs, and has a .550 slugging, then he is productive - very productive.

That has been Dunn's strength. I would love for Pedro to be as productive as Dunn.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 3:35 pm 
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Rochester wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Jay Buhner


"What did you trade Jay Buhner for? He 30 home runs, over 100 RBI's.... He's got a rocket for an arm... You don't know what the hell you're doing!"

"My baseball people told me 'Ken Phelps' ..."


LOVE a Seinfeld reference! Frank Costanza sparring with George Steinbrenner in the episode where Steinbrenner thought George was dead!


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 4:03 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Batting average - not a good barometer of offensive contribution.

Dunn posts low BA's but very good OBP, slugging and OPS.

If a player posts a .230 BA but walks 100 times, has a .350 OBP, hits home runs, and has a .550 slugging, then he is productive - very productive.

That has been Dunn's strength. I would love for Pedro to be as productive as Dunn.


Except that Dunn, and guys like Dunn, never seem to win anything. And, also seem to wear out their welcome fairly early. Why? Probably because they are expected to actually hit the ball rather than passively take walks.

Its what separates the Stargell's from the Dunn's.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 11:05 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Batting average - not a good barometer of offensive contribution.

Dunn posts low BA's but very good OBP, slugging and OPS.

If a player posts a .230 BA but walks 100 times, has a .350 OBP, hits home runs, and has a .550 slugging, then he is productive - very productive.

That has been Dunn's strength. I would love for Pedro to be as productive as Dunn.


Except that Dunn, and guys like Dunn, never seem to win anything. And, also seem to wear out their welcome fairly early. Why? Probably because they are expected to actually hit the ball rather than passively take walks.

Its what separates the Stargell's from the Dunn's.

ZM



Yeah, Dunn never carried those mid-2000s Reds to the title.

Eddie Yost somehow walked his way to a World Series.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:08 pm 
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Yep, that is pretty much what I would argue.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 6:08 pm 
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How many of you guys remember Jay Buhner as a hot shot Bucco prospect that many fans were very very disappointed to see traded? Damn, I am old!

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 6:12 pm 
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Animal wrote:
How many of you guys remember Jay Buhner as a hot shot Bucco prospect that many fans were very very disappointed to see traded? Damn, I am old!



I had no idea the Bucs drafted him until this post.

A first-ballot inductee into the Hall of Very Good.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 6:51 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Animal wrote:
How many of you guys remember Jay Buhner as a hot shot Bucco prospect that many fans were very very disappointed to see traded? Damn, I am old!



I had no idea the Bucs drafted him until this post.

A first-ballot inductee into the Hall of Very Good.


YEP...Second round draft pick of the Bucs and if I recall correctly, even though he was only 19, they thought he would be a great HR hitter. I remember being disappointed when they traded him. In his only year as a Bucco, in A ball at Watertown, he hit .323 with .964 OPS...9 HR and 58 RBI in JUST 65 games.

But then again, we did unload Dale Berra with him and got Steve Kemp and 34 year old Tim Foli back.

Foli went on to hit .189.
Kemp went on to play 86 games over two seasons, hitting .250 and .188 with 3 HR and 22 RBI.

All Buhner went on to do was hit 310 HR...including 3 straight years of 40+. In adddition, he had over 100 RBI those 3 years and was pretty good at driving in runs throughout his career. Damn NH, I mean Littlebrain, I mean Bonifay. Ummm, I mean Simmons, No Doughty.....

It was actually one of our most beloved GM's who pulled the trigger on that one....Harding Peterson.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 7:03 pm 
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Guess you can't win 'em all.

Can't see NH trading a 19-year old hitting like that, though. Howevs, and you...uh, baseball veterans can answer this...are prospects viewed as more valuable these days? Seems to be a lot of emphasis on systems that I don't remember hearing until recently.

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 8:55 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Guess you can't win 'em all.

Can't see NH trading a 19-year old hitting like that, though. Howevs, and you...uh, baseball veterans can answer this...are prospects viewed as more valuable these days? Seems to be a lot of emphasis on systems that I don't remember hearing until recently.

I think prospect's rookie contracts are more highly prized these days.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 11:48 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Can't see NH trading a 19-year old hitting like that, though. Howevs, and you...uh, baseball veterans can answer this...are prospects viewed as more valuable these days?

Yes. A result of the exploding cost of veteran players who produce is that young players who produce now have much more value.

And because of that, young players who are expected to produce - but have not yet done so - are also deemed to have significant value.

Try and get Profar, or Tavares, or a similar prospect in a deal and be prepared to offer a lot.


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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2013 9:35 am 
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... and as with all things, they are quickly approaching the point of "overvalued". For more info, read the Sawchuck blog on the Trib-Rev. from yesterday.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Pedro
PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2013 10:26 am 
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One thing I like about Pedro is that he takes pride in his defense. He made three very good plays at third base last night, and he was mad at himself for two low throws he made to Jones at first base. No matter what people may say about the guy, he is a professional. And he acts like it.


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