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 Post subject: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 5:01 pm 
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...that the Pirates are playing as well as they can right now? Personally, I don't and yet at the current pace they are on, they will win 91-92 games. I know some are going to jump on the "yeah, but they will collapse just like the last two years" schtick, but I think this team is much better than those teams and will be even better when the pitching depth arrives.

Laugh me off the board if you want, but this team is not unlike the teams of '68-'69 and '88-'89....not quite as good as that, but closer than most think.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 5:12 pm 
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bradf wrote:
...that the Pirates are playing as well as they can right now? Personally, I don't and yet at the current pace they are on, they will win 91-92 games. I know some are going to jump on the "yeah, but they will collapse just like the last two years" schtick, but I think this team is much better than those teams and will be even better when the pitching depth arrives.

Laugh me off the board if you want, but this team is not unlike the teams of '68-'69 and '88-'89....not quite as good as that, but closer than most think.


Brad -
I've been quietly saying this to myself for the last two weeks. Cutch isn't hitting on all cylinders. Walker's been out with injuries. Martin missed time due to injuries. Kdro has been mostly inept. Right there . . . that's 50% of the "key" offensive components. The team record is 22-17 and that involves stretches with Sanchez and Gomez taking the bump and Rodriguez being injured.

Let's also not forget that the Bucs endured a pretty tough stretch of games and opponents to start the season.

They may still collapse but . . . I expect better baseball to be played as June approaches. I don't think that you are crazy. Not one bit.

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 5:18 pm 
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I agree with both of you too....particularly with the fact that Cutch and Walker WILL, and Pedro SHOULD do better. While the starting pitching has been okay, I think it can be better.

Regarding a regression or a relapse, I think we have some weapons we did not have the past couple years when that happened. We have a much more solid bench....much stronger catching. We have more depth should injuries or problems pop up with the rotation. I think we have more options for the middle relievers too.

..and without jumping on the bandwagon, I really believe that Barmes will hit better. I think he is a very solid ss and will get it back going this year. If not, we actually have a VIABLE backup this year in Mercer.

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 5:35 pm 
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So, let's say (for purely wild ass speculative purposes) that the Bucs continue to be 6, 7 games over into late June and are still within 1.5 games of Wild Card. The pitching depth arrives in Karstens and Morton who prove at least mostly effective. JMac arm is ok and he is what he is, one game good, one bad, one so-so. Cole is deemed ready, but no roster space is available.

BUT, Kdro is still trapped at .210, with the occasional solo HR giving him say, oh... 12 at the time.

Do you start thinking about some type of package that brings Chase Headley back to you to play 3b?

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 5:36 pm 
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No way are they playing as well as they can. This team is going to rack up some runs and some wins. There were many warning track fly balls the last two days that would be gone in warmer weather.

Liriano just got here and is going to be good. Cole is on the way. There are capable guys in the minors that we can bring up if needed.

I am firmly convinced that this is the best team we've had since 92. And St. Louis can't possibly be this good, can they?

I don't know if we can actually make the playoffs, but we can at least stay in contention into September and at least break .500 glory hallelujah.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 5:38 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
So, let's say (for purely wild ass speculative purposes) that the Bucs continue to be 6, 7 games over into late June and are still within 1.5 games of Wild Card. The pitching depth arrives in Karstens and Morton who prove at least mostly effective. JMac arm is ok and he is what he is, one game good, one bad, one so-so. Cole is deemed ready, but no roster space is available.

BUT, Kdro is still trapped at .210, with the occasional solo HR giving him say, oh... 12 at the time.

Do you start thinking about some type of package that brings Chase Headley back to you to play 3b?

ZM


At some point if your third baseman can't hit you have to find one who can. But I don't know at what point.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 6:29 pm 
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I wanted to post my feelings about this topic after went unscathed through the "gauntlet (a word from the board)". But, nevertheless, decided to keep it inside. I have my hopes as I feel this team is good and I also feel that there's adequate depth at Indy if the injury bug creeps up. Add Cole, and he'll make a rotation even stronger. That time is coming.

Just a gut feeling, I think this team will be well above. 500 at the deadline and we'll see some series moves in upgrades as well. A possible impact shortstop, a better player to platoon alongside Pedro, a possible current platoon be split up as current players are sent away (but not forgotten).


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 6:37 pm 
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And yes, I agree if you have a chance to give up Pedro, without giving up much else, in return landing another talented, already proven third baseman I say do it (chase Headley type player). I was ecstatic the day Pedro was drafted but lets face it the man is running out of time.

The inconsistency is past frustrating. I was completely frustrated with the strikeouts last year amidst his other numbers. This year an even slower start.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 6:55 pm 
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bradf wrote:
...that the Pirates are playing as well as they can right now? Personally, I don't and yet at the current pace they are on, they will win 91-92 games. I know some are going to jump on the "yeah, but they will collapse just like the last two years" schtick, but I think this team is much better than those teams and will be even better when the pitching depth arrives.

Laugh me off the board if you want, but this team is not unlike the teams of '68-'69 and '88-'89....not quite as good as that, but closer than most think.



I'm still concerned about the pitching overall and will it hold up late into the season. I'm still concerned about the offense overall. Will it become a consistent run scoring offense which will finish among the top teams in the league?

Lots of "ifs" for me still. Hoping that the players we have will live up to their potential versus what actually will happen can be an dangerous trap one can fall into.

Having said that, I think the Pirates can play better baseball individually and as a team. I think they can be the real deal.

Will that translate into wins? Remains to be seen.

Will the Pirates end the season with a winning record? Remains to be seen.

Will the Pirates make the playoffs? Remains to be seen.

I prefer at this point to be cautiously optimistic. :D

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 7:00 pm 
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Bassoonman, by your post standards that was downright giddy of you! ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 7:10 pm 
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Trading Pedro would be among some of the dumbest moves this franchise has ever made.

I definitely believe in this team. It's just going to be a matter of keeping the momentum going forward ALL year. Like not getting swept by the Padres in August and September.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 7:49 pm 
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If the Pirates can ever figure out how to conistently beat the Brewers, even a 50/50 split, they'll win 100 games a year. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 7:51 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
So, let's say (for purely wild ass speculative purposes) that the Bucs continue to be 6, 7 games over into late June and are still within 1.5 games of Wild Card...

BUT, Kdro is still trapped at .210, with the occasional solo HR giving him say, oh... 12 at the time.

Do you start thinking about some type of package that brings Chase Headley back to you to play 3b?

ZM


It'd certainly be worth exploring.

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 9:25 pm 
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ZelieMike wrote:
Bassoonman, by your post standards that was downright giddy of you! ;)


:D

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 9:57 pm 
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Leway512 wrote:
Trading Pedro would be among some of the dumbest moves this franchise has ever made.

I definitely believe in this team. It's just going to be a matter of keeping the momentum going forward ALL year. Like not getting swept by the Padres in August and September.


Trading Pedro, etc... for Chase Headley would not be among some of the dumbest moves the Pirates have made.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 10:04 pm 
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I'm new to the board, so a quick overview of me: I like numbers. A lot. So, a lot of opinions will be based off of numbers (payroll, assets, stats, etc.). Just a primer before I post.

I think the offense is due for a step forward. Cutch's metrics are right on par with his career averages...except for BABIP. His LD% is the same, his contact rate is actually improved, and his BB/K rate is better than last year as well. Right now, he's just been plain unlucky (case in point, the rocket he hit at A-Ram tonight).

Pedro is due for a progression from where he currently is. Regardless of how much you love/hate him, he's not a .200 hitter. As always, he started the year out cold, but he still has some hot streaks in him that will bring him back up to about where he was last year.

Walker and Barmes should progress beyond where they currently are as well. Not sure Marte can sustain the .320+ BA and have no idea what to think of Tabata/Snider because they're so young, but I think Martin, Sanchez, and Jones are for real. Gaby's always mashed left-handers and obviously GI had a huge year last year as a platoon guy against righties.

I think the pitching regresses slightly, mostly due to the bullpen. Good news is, the bullpen regressing is slightly easier to weather than the rotation regressing. I think Locke may regress a bit, but Liriano replacing Sanchez is an upgrade and Karstens has proven to be solid as well.

JMO. Overall, I think this team is right around where they should be, and I think the 87 win projection that was recently posted on Fangraphs is reasonable unless we see something implode (not out of the question, sadly).

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 8:35 am 
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This team's best baseball is still ahead. The reason I think the pitching won't regress is because it is so deep. No one is really playing over their head, except maybe Marte. But truthfully, we don't know what his ceiling is.
Cutch has yet to play his best ball, and Pedro will get untracked eventually. I feel really good about where we are.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 8:56 am 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Leway512 wrote:
Trading Pedro would be among some of the dumbest moves this franchise has ever made.

I definitely believe in this team. It's just going to be a matter of keeping the momentum going forward ALL year. Like not getting swept by the Padres in August and September.


Trading Pedro, etc... for Chase Headley would not be among some of the dumbest moves the Pirates have made.


It absolutely would. For one, Headley is going to be the highest paid Padre in history, so why would they trade him to begin with? If they were to trade him, it would be a rental, or us pledging a ton of money to a 29 year old player who had exactly one MLB season worth talking about so far in his career. Or even worse, he's just a rental. Trading a 26 year old with absurd power, who's still got a ways to Free Agency, for Headley is DUMB.

I don't know what universe you're in that you think we're in a position to trade one of our few MLB cornerstone players, who we're not losing any time soon, for another MLB player.

It would make much more sense if it were trading a package of prospects, and moving Pedro to first base. That would be something I could see making sense, though I doubt any trade for Chase Headley would make sense for us. It's really jumping the gun on a good start to the season, by suggesting we move Pedro if we're in contention. We're really not that good or deep to suggest moving a guy with 50 HR potential, when he hasn't hit his prime yet. Does Headley mean World Series THIS year? I seriously doubt it.

The last time we just booted a player with great power, he turned out to be Jose Bautista. We already know Pedro has a 40-50 HR ceiling, and you're still suggesting trading him? That's madness. Be patient. Don't just suggest throwing away players because it appears we might contend in May.


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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 9:54 am 
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First time I've heard a guy hitting at he Mendoza line, with nominal production and below average defense, called a "cornerstone".

So, the deal is to move that player to first and sit Jones/Sanchez?

The point of this is not what could Pedro be, but what IS he and in the context of the team winning right now.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Who thinks...
PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 10:12 am 
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When Chase Headley was Pedro's age (and had much more MLB experience), no team wanted to trade for him.

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