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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:30 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
I fall into the same group as DK. Until the prospects get to the Bigs I'll be skeptical. McCutchen is a star, the jury is out on Marte (although it sure looks good so far), Walker is average, and Alvarez is average to below-average. Until Cole, Taillon, Palanco, Hansen, and Bell prove successful I'll have my doubts. The days of me getting too excited over prospects is fading.

So it doesn't matter if the farm system is ranked in the top 5 or bottom 5?

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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 4:34 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Well IA if you discount all the players that have already been developed you'll always be skeptical. Its DK's favorite game, discount the successes and focus on the problems. "Cole, well my daughter could have picked him. McCutchen, he was inherited from DL. Marte, he was signed 3 months before NH. Alvarez was an obvious decision. Polanco nearly had his foot ripped off in paramilitary operations in Beirut"


Cautiously optimistic would be a good phrase for my view of the farm system. I'm hoping like mad Cole and Co. will keep progressing and be an instant impact for the big club. It also wouldn't surprise me if he has a 5.20 ERA this summer. I guess this part of me is a casualty of 20 years of a poorly run organization.

I think that cautiously optimistic is probably right where you should be, unless you're a Cardinal fan. They obviously have access to some unknown voodoo that other systems just don't know about.

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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:16 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
I fall into the same group as DK. Until the prospects get to the Bigs I'll be skeptical. McCutchen is a star, the jury is out on Marte (although it sure looks good so far), Walker is average, and Alvarez is average to below-average. Until Cole, Taillon, Palanco, Hansen, and Bell prove successful I'll have my doubts. The days of me getting too excited over prospects is fading.

So it doesn't matter if the farm system is ranked in the top 5 or bottom 5?

Farm system rankings seem as important, and relevant, as NFL draft day grades.


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:36 pm 
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val wrote:
Farm system rankings seem as important, and relevant, as NFL draft day grades.

MASSIVE difference, val.

The NFL draft "grades" are based on ZERO actual performance data, while the minor league rankings are based in substantial part on performance in the minor leagues, against relevant peers (many of whom will constitute the prospects' competition in the majors).

If the NFL had a minor league system, where only players signed with a professional team participated, and led to 2 or even 3 seasons of performance for the ratings, then the analogy would have merit, IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:17 pm 
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val wrote:
Farm system rankings seem as important, and relevant, as NFL draft day grades.


Even with Bucfan's comments above, I agree with this.

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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 7:20 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
Even with Bucfan's comments above, I agree with this.

Who was the last significant rookie contributor who was not ranked in the top 50 prospects?

Harper, Trout, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey, and on and ...

Guess what they had in common.


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:41 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
Even with Bucfan's comments above, I agree with this.

Who was the last significant rookie contributor who was not ranked in the top 50 prospects?

Harper, Trout, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey, and on and ...

Guess what they had in common.

Of course the good players were good when they were in the minors and in college and in high school. But can you get a list of the 50 top prospects from 2000, say? How many of them had stellar careers?

And there is a ton of evidence upon which to base reviews of NCAA football players. Only they've been performing in a much more pressurized environment than any minor leaguer.


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:19 pm 
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val wrote:
Of course the good players were good when they were in the minors and in college and in high school. But can you get a list of the 50 top prospects from 2000, say?

The prospect rankings for 2007 (six years ago, so the production is now a known item, even for the youngest players) included the following in the top-25:

1. Dice-K
2. Alex Gordon
3. Delmon Young
4. Philip Hughes
5. Homer Bailey
6. Cameron Maybin
7. Evan Longoria
8. Brandon Wood
9. Justin Upton
10. Andrew Miller
11. Tim Lincecum
12. Chris Young
13. Andrew McCutchen
14. Jay Bruce
15. Troy Tulowitzki
16. Yovanni Gallardo
17. Reid Brignac
18. Carlos Gonzalez
19. Andy Laroche
20. Mike Pelfrey
21. Matt Garza
24. Clayton Kershaw
25. Billy Butler
26. Ryan Braun

I would win just about any division in baseball with that group. Look at this line-up

1B Butler
2B Gordon (he is athletic enough)
SS Tulowitzki
3B Longoria
LF Braun
CF McCutchen
RF Gonzalez
DH Upton

SP Kershaw
SP Lincecum
SP Bailey
SP Hughes
SP Gallardo

I think I could deal Bruce for a solid C.

You see the point, no?


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 11:21 pm 
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The minor leagues is what it is. A professional development league. There isn't much hype around the leagues and if there is hype for a certain player go ahead a chalk that up to the media. The minors isn't that far removed from "Bull Durham."

But, when scouts put there time in and relay it to the social public that a young man has extraordinary talents, five star stuff, then I usually try to follow them. Five star talent doesn't come around very often. What it really comes down to is how much that ultra young talented player wants it. He progresses, he advances, he makes it to the show, he puts on a show. Polanco is an exciting player and with the system needing a boost at short hopefully Hansen as well.


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:43 am 
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OK, since you picked 2007, this is the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft (since I am unaware of a similar Top 50 Prospects type tabulation for college football players).



1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB
1 2 Calvin Johnson WR
1 3 Joe Thomas OT
1 4 Gaines Adams DE Deceased
1 5 Levi Brown OT
1 6 LaRon Landry S
1 7 Adrian Peterson RB
1 8 Jamaal Anderson DE
1 9 Ted Ginn Jr WR
1 10 Amobi Okoye DT
1 11 Patrick Willis LB
1 12 Marshawn Lynch RB
1 13 Adam Carriker DT
1 14 Darrelle Revis CB
1 15 Lawrence Timmons LB
1 16 Justin Harrell DT
1 17 Jarvis Moss DE
1 18 Leon Hall CB
1 19 Michael Griffin S
1 20 Aaron Ross CB
1 21 Reggie Nelson S
1 22 Brady Quinn QB
1 23 Dwayne Bowe WR
1 24 Brandon Meriweather S
1 25 Jon Beason LB
1 26 Anthony Spencer LB
1 27 Robert Meachem WR
1 28 Joe Staley OT
1 29 Ben Grubbs G
1 30 Craig "Buster" Davis WR
1 31 Greg Olsen TE
1 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR

I think I could make an pretty fine team with the players from the first round alone, though I am obviously missing a QB this go round:

WR: Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe, with Ted Ginn Jr handling KO returns
TE: Greg Olson
T: Joe Thomas and Joe Staley
G: Ben Grubbs
C: None
QB: Brady Quinn (yikes!)
RB: Adrian Peterson

DL: OK, a weakness for this entire draft. Gaines Adams was going to be a fine player, but he passed away after a 1.5 years
LB: Best corps in the NFL: Patrick Willis, Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer, Lawrence Timmons
CB: Darrell Revis and Leon Hall
S: Brandon Merriweather and Michael Griffin

The point is, that even with major flops like Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell, as well as the lesser miscues on LaRon Landry and Ted Ginn Jr, for instance, all the talent of a given time frame is still going to be, well, talent. But any one or two or three of these guys can fail, despite talent, coaching and pedigree. Until they produce at the major league level, it seems pointless to worry to much about them.

Clint Hurdle was once "the phenom", and look what kind of career he had.....


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 1:25 am 
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val - I don't get the point of your post.

I am the one proposing that having a group of top prospects is good. You were suggesting that the failure rate, even among top-25 guys, was too high to care very much.

Are you saying that my list convinced you? If not, how about 2008 as well:

1. Jay Bruce
2. Evan Longoria
3. Joba Chamberlain
4. Clay Bucholtz
5. Colby Rasmus
6. Cameron Maybin
7. Clay Kershaw
8. Franklin Morales
9. Homer Bailey
10. David Price
11. Travis Snider
12. Matt Weiters
13. Jacoby Ellsbury
14. Andrew McCutchen
15. Jake McGee
16. Brandon Wood
17. Wade Davis
18. Mike Moustakas
19. Elvis Andrus
20. Fernando Martinez
21. Rick Porcello
22. Carlos Gonzalez
23. Matt Laporta
24. Nick Adenhart
25. Jordan Schafer
26. Gio Gonzalez
28. Jason Heyward

I put up my prospect team against any team you can name, ever, in the history of the game. I think my team competes:

C Weiters
1B Bruce
2B Moustakas (he'll have to fake it)
SS Andrus
3B Longoria
LF Gonzalez
CF McCutchen
RF Heyward

SP Bucholz
SP Price
SP Gonzalez
SP Kershaw
SP Bailey

Pretty good team, ehh?


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 6:35 am 
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I wouldn't say prospect lists have that high of a failure rate, but the actual farm system rankings can sometimes be BS. The Yankees are always put over as having some great farm system, for instance, when they haven't put out a legit starting pitcher in decades, and barely have any not-Cano position players worth talking about. The Cards and Rays, in my opinion, seem to have the best farm systems that have been putting out great MLB teams for the past 5 years or so now. And a lot of the time, Cards prospects are ranked as "average" or "solid" or what not.

That's why I think we worry a little too much about where our farm is ranked. We have a good balance of "superstar" potential prospects, and "solid" prospects. I think our team is going to be fine for the next 5 years. Especially that outfield. Polanco/Cutch/Marte??? Most teams in the MLB would KILL for that. We can harp on the fact that we don't have a star SS, but lots of teams will harp on the fact that they don't have one great outfielder, while we have the potential of having THREE great ones at the same time.


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 Post subject: Re: BA comment regarding Polanco, Pirates' farm system
PostPosted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 9:45 am 
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IA Pirate wrote:
val wrote:
Farm system rankings seem as important, and relevant, as NFL draft day grades.


Even with Bucfan's comments above, I agree with this.




I third this. Anecdotally, I've seen more top 50 prospect (heck, make it top 32) busts in MLB than in NFL. Now, I'm sure there's a way to actually quantify that, and I'm sure someone's done it, I just don't have time to find out.

THAT BEING SAID, I love NFL draft talk and speculation, and I'm beginning to feel the same way about MLB prospects now that I've gotten back into baseball (can you fault a Buccos fan who was 8 in '92?). I see nothing wrong with being excited over the number of high-ceiling guys in the Bucs' farm, just as I see nothing wrong with being skeptical until they show it in MLB. I think both opinions/views are just that and have perfectly reasonable explanations. Why I'm excited about the Pirates' farm is the number of these guys that they have. This isn't Philly depending entirely on Domonic Brown's projections.

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