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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:03 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
What's your point?


1. IF everyone can close, why don't they? See Detroit Tigers 2013.

2. If you don't have a good and dependable closer, you are in trouble. See Detroit Tigers so far and recent signing.


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:06 pm 
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Animal wrote:
Anybody think Jay Bell is making a difference at all?


Less job security for Clint Barmes?


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:21 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
What's your point?


1. IF everyone can close, why don't they? See Detroit Tigers 2013.

2. If you don't have a good and dependable closer, you are in trouble. See Detroit Tigers so far and recent signing.


I'm not sure how Jason Grilli's success this year translates to a conclusion that either (a) anyone can close or (2) closers are overrated. Now . . . if Jeanmar Gomez was mowing down opponents in the 9th inning of one-run games . . . I might be more open to that claim. One thing that is certain in my mind . . . with a one-run or a two-run lead in the 9th inning . . . I'd certainly prefer handing the ball to Jason Grilli than I would to Carlos Marmol.

Now . . . that doesn't mean that Melancon can't close or that there is only one potential closer that currently sits in the Bucs' bullpen (or any other team's bullpen). I don't buy the notion that there are only 30 "true" closers in today's game. I don't buy that at all. Strip the label "closer" off of a particular pitcher and label them instead as a "shut down" reliever. I find "shut down" relievers to be eminently valuable and the results in Philadelphia are a decent example of why.

I'm just not in the "the 9th inning doesn't matter, anyone can close" camp.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:56 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
What's your point?


1. IF everyone can close, why don't they? See Detroit Tigers 2013.

2. If you don't have a good and dependable closer, you are in trouble. See Detroit Tigers so far and recent signing.

Perhaps the better saying is that "Any good reliever can close." There's no magic to pitching the 9th inning versus pitching the 8th or 7th. The reason the Tigers can't close games is because they make bad decisions on who should close games. Why Al Albuquerque or Drew Smyly haven't been given the job is a mystery to me.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 1:41 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
I like the fight that they show when down in games, that is a big change from the Russell era.

That's not fair. Nobody bothered to wake Russell up and let him know they were behind. I'm sure a rousing motivational speech would have been given.


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 1:51 pm 
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I would say if anyone "proves it", that would be Brian Wilson. Widely considered the best closer in the MLB, he goes down and the Giants don't miss a beat. To the point of not bothering to resign him.

It's not to say it's all "overrated", it's just that bullpen can be an easier fix than offense or starting pitching, yet some people greatly exaggerate a closers impact. Losing an All-Star closer shouldn't mean half as much as losing an All-Star first baseman or SP.


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:00 pm 
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Mike Williams was an All-Star Closer.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:42 pm 
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Marte following a nice upward trend (WAR by BR.com, WARP by BP.com):

Starling Marte's 2012 WAR/WARP (182 PA): 1.0/0.0
Starling Marte's 2013 WAR/WARP (95 PA): 1.6/0.8 (!!!)

Just for fun comparison:
Shin-Soo Choo 2006 WAR (179 PA):1.1
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 WAR (127 PA): 0.6
Matt Kemp 2006 WAR (162 PA): -0.2
Justin Upton 2007 WAR (152 PA): -0.6

There are other recent examples of young guys with Marte's skill set putting up similar WAR in roughly twice as many PAs in their rookie years (Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Miguel Cabrera...)

Also, Russell Martin. So far it looks as if the terrible end to 2012 will have been 'worth it' if it meant ridding of Barajas and leading to signing R-Mart.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:44 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Marte following a nice upward trend (WAR by BR.com, WARP by BP.com):

Starling Marte's 2012 WAR/WARP (182 PA): 1.0/0.0
Starling Marte's 2013 WAR/WARP (95 PA): 1.6/0.8 (!!!)

Just for fun comparison:
Shin-Soo Choo 2006 WAR (179 PA):1.1
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 WAR (127 PA): 0.6
Matt Kemp 2006 WAR (162 PA): -0.2
Justin Upton 2007 WAR (152 PA): -0.6

There are other recent examples of young guys with Marte's skill set putting up similar WAR in roughly twice as many PAs in their rookie years (Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Miguel Cabrera...)


The one thing that concerns me about Marte is his BB:K ratio, which currently sits at 5:25. Not good.


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:52 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
What's your point?


1. IF everyone can close, why don't they? See Detroit Tigers 2013.

2. If you don't have a good and dependable closer, you are in trouble. See Detroit Tigers so far and recent signing.


1. The Tigers are a sample size nightmare, you give each guy two chances and then switch. Of course, they now have Valverde back and he is 1 for 1. The Cubs panic with Marmol was similar, two bad games and chaos, now Marmol is back in the role. they chose small sample over teh entire second half of 2012 that suggested Marmol will be fine.

2. No one is arguing that you don't need a good closer to win, the argument is over paying big money for an established guy (Hammer) or rolling with a good RP regardless of 9th inning stats (Grilli).

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:54 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Az Bucco fan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
What's your point?


1. IF everyone can close, why don't they? See Detroit Tigers 2013.

2. If you don't have a good and dependable closer, you are in trouble. See Detroit Tigers so far and recent signing.


I'm not sure how Jason Grilli's success this year translates to a conclusion that either (a) anyone can close or (2) closers are overrated. Now . . . if Jeanmar Gomez was mowing down opponents in the 9th inning of one-run games . . . I might be more open to that claim. One thing that is certain in my mind . . . with a one-run or a two-run lead in the 9th inning . . . I'd certainly prefer handing the ball to Jason Grilli than I would to Carlos Marmol.

Now . . . that doesn't mean that Melancon can't close or that there is only one potential closer that currently sits in the Bucs' bullpen (or any other team's bullpen). I don't buy the notion that there are only 30 "true" closers in today's game. I don't buy that at all. Strip the label "closer" off of a particular pitcher and label them instead as a "shut down" reliever. I find "shut down" relievers to be eminently valuable and the results in Philadelphia are a decent example of why.

I'm just not in the "the 9th inning doesn't matter, anyone can close" camp.


Correct No. 9, it should be stated that any good reliever can close. Or more accurate, anyone with a good K rate (>8/9IP) and low BB (<3/9IP) rate can close.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:59 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Marte following a nice upward trend (WAR by BR.com, WARP by BP.com):

Starling Marte's 2012 WAR/WARP (182 PA): 1.0/0.0
Starling Marte's 2013 WAR/WARP (95 PA): 1.6/0.8 (!!!)

Just for fun comparison:
Shin-Soo Choo 2006 WAR (179 PA):1.1
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 WAR (127 PA): 0.6
Matt Kemp 2006 WAR (162 PA): -0.2
Justin Upton 2007 WAR (152 PA): -0.6

There are other recent examples of young guys with Marte's skill set putting up similar WAR in roughly twice as many PAs in their rookie years (Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Miguel Cabrera...)


The one thing that concerns me about Marte is his BB:K ratio, which currently sits at 5:25. Not good.


The BB rate for him is OK at 5.3% that's about all he is every going to give us. Soriano has had a nice career at 6%, with a 20% K rate. Marte's K rate at 26.3% is too high for sustained success, his babip is .459, absolutely insanely high. He does look like a player that will have higher than average babip, maybe .330-.340, but no one stays above .400. If he continues to K at this pace he'll be lucky to hit .280. Fortunately he is still pretty raw and you can argue he'll improve enough to post .300/.340/.460 which would be great.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:05 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Marte following a nice upward trend (WAR by BR.com, WARP by BP.com):

Starling Marte's 2012 WAR/WARP (182 PA): 1.0/0.0
Starling Marte's 2013 WAR/WARP (95 PA): 1.6/0.8 (!!!)

Just for fun comparison:
Shin-Soo Choo 2006 WAR (179 PA):1.1
Jacoby Ellsbury 2007 WAR (127 PA): 0.6
Matt Kemp 2006 WAR (162 PA): -0.2
Justin Upton 2007 WAR (152 PA): -0.6

There are other recent examples of young guys with Marte's skill set putting up similar WAR in roughly twice as many PAs in their rookie years (Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Miguel Cabrera...)

Also, Russell Martin. So far it looks as if the terrible end to 2012 will have been 'worth it' if it meant ridding of Barajas and leading to signing R-Mart.


FG has him at 1.2WAR, that's 9 WAR pace, geez, of course that won't happen, but wow!

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:38 pm 
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Ask tiger fans about closer by committee. Or just Phil Coke for that matter,,,, :o :o :o :o :o


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:55 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
The one thing that concerns me about Marte is his BB:K ratio, which currently sits at 5:25. Not good.

Well, it concerns us all. But given his early season excellence everywhere else, we can live with it. And as BD pointed out, the Ks will have to come down for long term success. And thus is a project born.....


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 4:34 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Ask tiger fans about closer by committee. Or just Phil Coke for that matter,,,, :o :o :o :o :o


Oh we agree, I don't like closer by committee much, I think defined roles certainly help. I just have no use for paying a "proven closer" $8-10 million a year.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 6:54 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I really like the current run differential which suggests that our start is not a fluke despite the horrendous BB/9IP rate and league best babip we are sporting.


A certain someone who receives his checks from the Tribune-Review has in the recent past days cited the Pirates current run differential (+7) as potentally indicative that they are a fluke right now. Funny thing is . . . if you are a strict adherent to the Pythogariam (or however the hell you spell it) expected win/loss record formula . . . and setting aside whether that formula has any applicabilty or relevance after 22 games . . . the Bucs' expected win/loss record is 12-10 instead of 13-9. A +7 run differential after 13.5% of the season translates to a +54 over the course of the season. And a 12-10 record translates to an 88 win season.

Jus' saying.

Yeah, DK is grasping at straws citing run differential 22 games in.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 6:55 pm 
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Az Bucco fan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
What's your point?


1. IF everyone can close, why don't they? See Detroit Tigers 2013.

Not everyone can close. Anyone who can PITCH, can close.

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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 10:46 pm 
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Marte's penchant for leading off the first with a hit.


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 Post subject: Re: The 'what I like about this team' thread
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 10:50 pm 
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Hurdle arguing with the ump even though Sanchez was throwing meatballs.

Jay Bell getting kicked out for sticking up for Marte after the quick trigger pull on Sanchez.

Coaching FIRE.

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