Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Fri Aug 01, 2014 9:23 pm

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 17 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:10 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 5:54 pm
Posts: 6089
Location: Keystone State
Oh, so close.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

_________________
The Bucs are going all the way, all the way this year!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:31 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
bucco boy wrote:


On the plus side, the Bucs have far outperformed their spring predictions in the last two years under Hurdle. I believe last year was 72 wins. So, 80 + 7 equals playoff contention ;)

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:34 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2142
Location: Naples, FL
Barrys Dopers wrote:
bucco boy wrote:


On the plus side, the Bucs have far outperformed their spring predictions in the last two years under Hurdle. I believe last year was 72 wins. So, 80 + 7 equals playoff contention ;)



So it's looking like this year, maybe get on a pace for 100 wins and then collapse back to 85?

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:44 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
bucco boy wrote:


On the plus side, the Bucs have far outperformed their spring predictions in the last two years under Hurdle. I believe last year was 72 wins. So, 80 + 7 equals playoff contention ;)



So it's looking like this year, maybe get on a pace for 100 wins and then collapse back to 85?


yep, that seems probably, lol. :D

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:09 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
BTW, Fangraphs also projects us to win 80 games

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... s-wrap-up/

I guess its good that we are getting projected far better than any time in the recent past.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:16 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
Check out the NL central

Reds 86
Cards 84
Brewers 82 (with Lohse)
Bucs 80
Cubs 78

8 wins from worst to 1st, this could be a very exciting division all year.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:20 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 7:01 pm
Posts: 7206
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Check out the NL central

Reds 86
Cards 84
Brewers 82 (with Lohse)
Bucs 80
Cubs 78

8 wins from worst to 1st, this could be a very exciting division all year.


They seem to be expecting a lot from the Cubs.

_________________
I say keep the $50 and ban him anyway...

For those jumping ship, we'll keep the bandwagon warm for you...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:31 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
nad69dan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Check out the NL central

Reds 86
Cards 84
Brewers 82 (with Lohse)
Bucs 80
Cubs 78

8 wins from worst to 1st, this could be a very exciting division all year.


They seem to be expecting a lot from the Cubs.


Well the Cubs do have a good deep rotation and at least 3 good hitters. In reality they will sell off parts like Garza and Soriano and quickly become a worse team.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:34 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Check out the NL central

Reds 86
Cards 84
Brewers 82 (with Lohse)
Bucs 80
Cubs 78

8 wins from worst to 1st, this could be a very exciting division all year.



BP sees it as the Reds #1 then a total wash.
Reds 92
Cards 83
Bucs 80
Brewers 80
Cubs 78

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 1:45 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4865
Location: Washington, DC
I'm not sure if it's because of the generally awful spring, the injuries in the starting rotation, or the putrid bench, but I'm feeling decidedly pessimistic about the 2013 campaign. I'm revising my prediction to 74 wins. I hope I'm wrong.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:25 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 4865
Location: Washington, DC
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/preview1 ... s-2013-mlb

Dan Szymborski of ESPN projects the NL Central this way:

Cincy 90-72
St. Louis 85-77
Milwaukee 81-81
Pittsburgh 77-85
Chi Cubs 74-88

He gives the Pirates an 8.5% chance to win the division, a 17.3% chance to qualify for the playoffs, and a 1.6% chance to win the World Series.

Here's his blurb on the team:

Pittsburgh is another place that Kyle Lohse would have been a good fit (assuming they would pay him), as the Pirates are similar to the Brewers in that they're in that "slightly competitive" tier in the division. The Bucs won't really go into the legitimately interesting category until we see pitching prospects Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon in black-and-yellow. ZiPS does give the Pirates nearly a 1-in-5 chance to make the playoffs, so it's certainly not a team without hope.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 2:49 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
J_C_Steel wrote:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/preview13/story/_/id/9100758/projecting-national-league-standings-2013-mlb

Dan Szymborski of ESPN projects the NL Central this way:

Cincy 90-72
St. Louis 85-77
Milwaukee 81-81
Pittsburgh 77-85
Chi Cubs 74-88

He gives the Pirates an 8.5% chance to win the division, a 17.3% chance to qualify for the playoffs, and a 1.6% chance to win the World Series.

Here's his blurb on the team:

Pittsburgh is another place that Kyle Lohse would have been a good fit (assuming they would pay him), as the Pirates are similar to the Brewers in that they're in that "slightly competitive" tier in the division. The Bucs won't really go into the legitimately interesting category until we see pitching prospects Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon in black-and-yellow. ZiPS does give the Pirates nearly a 1-in-5 chance to make the playoffs, so it's certainly not a team without hope.


Yeah his the worst I've seen and it is a bit flawed when you look at his SP projections. He basically has all our SP worth a total of 7 WAR and our bullpen at 1 WAR which I think is overly pessimistic. We had 12.2 WAR last year pitching so that explains the 3 win difference.

Personally I predict 84 wins.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:58 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:27 am
Posts: 1352
Location: Eastern Shore
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Personally I predict 84 wins.

At this point, I'd be happy with that. But like JC, I'm not optimistic. Maybe because I'm not a fan of Marte yet...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4886
Location: Pittsburgh
J_C_Steel wrote:
I'm not sure if it's because of the generally awful spring, the injuries in the starting rotation, or the putrid bench, but I'm feeling decidedly pessimistic about the 2013 campaign. I'm revising my prediction to 74 wins. I hope I'm wrong.

Shhh.... save it for the prediction thread.

There is going to be a prediction thread, isn't there?

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 12:21 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2009 2:48 pm
Posts: 569
Location: Springfield, IL
I think the Bucs take a step back this year because the Hanrahan trade has weakened their bullpen, the back end of the rotation stinks and they still dont have a legit lead-off hitter.
Now thats not to say that I dont think this team is doomed per say. I think the starting pithing will be significantly better when Cole and Taillon get to the show, but for this year I got them winning 75. It costs Neal his job, even though he has put the pieces in place for a contending team in 2014...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 10:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4886
Location: Pittsburgh
nad69dan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Check out the NL central

Reds 86
Cards 84
Brewers 82 (with Lohse)
Bucs 80
Cubs 78

8 wins from worst to 1st, this could be a very exciting division all year.


They seem to be expecting a lot from the Cubs.

They're also expecting too much from the Brewers. Lohse was a bad addition, IMO. I'd be surprised if he can keep his ERA under 4.00.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: BP Predictions
PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 10:29 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 4886
Location: Pittsburgh
House of Poe wrote:
I think the Bucs take a step back this year because the Hanrahan trade has weakened their bullpen, the back end of the rotation stinks and they still dont have a legit lead-off hitter.
Now thats not to say that I dont think this team is doomed per say. I think the starting pithing will be significantly better when Cole and Taillon get to the show, but for this year I got them winning 75. It costs Neal his job, even though he has put the pieces in place for a contending team in 2014...

I don't think that the back end of the rotation is as bad as you might think. Locke is going to surprise some people. Not that he's going to become an ace or anything like that, but I think he'll put up numbers that would be acceptable from a number three or four.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 17 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], NSMaster56 and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits