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 Post subject: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:19 am 
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Chapman will collapse as a starter for the Reds? I think he will bomb....can't really substantiate that opinion, except that I don't think he has the right disposition to pace through 6-7 innings and won't be able to just throw the ball by people 2nd and third time through a line-up.


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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:41 am 
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bradf wrote:
Chapman will collapse as a starter for the Reds? I think he will bomb....can't really substantiate that opinion, except that I don't think he has the right disposition to pace through 6-7 innings and won't be able to just throw the ball by people 2nd and third time through a line-up.


I'm with you, his control is fairly awful. I can't see him being consistently effective for 20+ batters.

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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:18 pm 
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I think he'll be inconsistent, but I don't see his ERA being north of 3. He's gonna be nasty no matter how long he's in the game. The issue with him will be the innings. The Reds will either have to spread out his starts or simply not have him available in September. Tough decision.


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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:48 pm 
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I think he does well. The question I have is, "Can he maintain velocity in the upper 90's for 7 or 8 innings?"

If not, and if he is losing velocity by the 5th inning, then he may not last as a SP'er. However, he was a SP'er in Cuba and reportedly was dealing, so I think he can make the transition.

Further, his relatively high BB rate is neutralized by his K rate. Also, he does not give up HR's ... he gives up fly balls, and pitches in Cincinnati, but I have to suspect that like some pitchers (Cain), he is going to induce weaker contact than most pitchers and his HR rate remains low.

He has a plus-plus fastball, and a very good slider. He has used his change-up with increasing frequency over the past three seasons and it will now be his 3rd pitch.

Finally, he is a lefty. Put that together and I see somebody akin to Randy Johnson. He is going to have some ugly starts based on control issues, but his stuff plays and it plays well.


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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:58 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
bradf wrote:
Chapman will collapse as a starter for the Reds? I think he will bomb....can't really substantiate that opinion, except that I don't think he has the right disposition to pace through 6-7 innings and won't be able to just throw the ball by people 2nd and third time through a line-up.


I'm with you, his control is fairly awful. I can't see him being consistently effective for 20+ batters.

I wouldn't call Chapman's control awful, but it certainly is not good. I suspect that he won't be able to throw 100 MPH as a starter consistently, and that's essentially what made him so good as a reliever. It's nearly inconceivable to think that he'll maintain his K/9 rate as a starter, at which point his ERA is very likely to go above 3.00.

While on the topic of the Reds, after the number of innings they logged and pitches they threw last season, does anyone see Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto staying healthy in 2013 all season? I certainly don't, particularly with respect to Bailey after comparing his 2012 workload to those in his previous two years.

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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:03 pm 
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Willton wrote:
While on the topic of the Reds, after the number of innings they logged and pitches they threw last season, does anyone see Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto staying healthy in 2013 all season? I certainly don't, particularly with respect to Bailey after comparing his 2012 workload to those in his previous two years.

And Cueto is not a big guy. He pitched 30 more IP than his career high, and 47 more than the year prior.

Further, didn't he tweak something in the first playoff game?


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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:13 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Willton wrote:
While on the topic of the Reds, after the number of innings they logged and pitches they threw last season, does anyone see Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto staying healthy in 2013 all season? I certainly don't, particularly with respect to Bailey after comparing his 2012 workload to those in his previous two years.

And Cueto is not a big guy. He pitched 30 more IP than his career high, and 47 more than the year prior.

He also threw over 300 more total pitches in 2012 than he did in any previous year. Further, he averaged 105 pitches per start with 12 outings of throwing 110 pitches or more, including two instances of throwing at least 120 pitches. If I were a Reds fan, I would be nervous about the continued employment of Dusty Baker as the in-game manager.

Bucfan wrote:
Further, didn't he tweak something in the first playoff game?

Yes, and in the first inning no less. He was relieved by Sam LeCure in the first inning and Latos took over in the 3rd. Cueto never pitched again during that series, despite it going 5 games.

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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:16 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
bradf wrote:
Chapman will collapse as a starter for the Reds? I think he will bomb....can't really substantiate that opinion, except that I don't think he has the right disposition to pace through 6-7 innings and won't be able to just throw the ball by people 2nd and third time through a line-up.


I'm with you, his control is fairly awful. I can't see him being consistently effective for 20+ batters.

I wouldn't call Chapman's control awful, but it certainly is not good. I suspect that he won't be able to throw 100 MPH as a starter consistently, and that's essentially what made him so good as a reliever. It's nearly inconceivable to think that he'll maintain his K/9 rate as a starter, at which point his ERA is very likely to go above 3.00.

While on the topic of the Reds, after the number of innings they logged and pitches they threw last season, does anyone see Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto staying healthy in 2013 all season? I certainly don't, particularly with respect to Bailey after comparing his 2012 workload to those in his previous two years.


Well a career walk rate of 4.60/9IP in relief isn't real good, given that his disastrous 2011 jacks it up. I see him throwing more mid-90's where we won't get so many swing and misses on out of zone pitches. I also don't see his slider as being all that plus and he's a two pitch guy. We will see.

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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:35 pm 
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I actually wonder more about the mental aspect of the transition than his stuff...someone who can deal mid to upper 90s (which he should be able to do through 6-7 innings) and reach back for 100 when needed doesn't need much else to get by....an avg. 2nd pitch and a below avg. 3rd pitch will still play.

I'm just not sure he has the mental capacity to make adjustments second and third time through a line-up and carry out a game plan. It's the age-old debate between thrower and pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:53 pm 
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Willton wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Willton wrote:
While on the topic of the Reds, after the number of innings they logged and pitches they threw last season, does anyone see Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto staying healthy in 2013 all season? I certainly don't, particularly with respect to Bailey after comparing his 2012 workload to those in his previous two years.

And Cueto is not a big guy. He pitched 30 more IP than his career high, and 47 more than the year prior.

He also threw over 300 more total pitches in 2012 than he did in any previous year. Further, he averaged 105 pitches per start with 12 outings of throwing 110 pitches or more, including two instances of throwing at least 120 pitches. If I were a Reds fan, I would be nervous about the continued employment of Dusty Baker as the in-game manager.

Bucfan wrote:
Further, didn't he tweak something in the first playoff game?

Yes, and in the first inning no less. He was relieved by Sam LeCure in the first inning and Latos took over in the 3rd. Cueto never pitched again during that series, despite it going 5 games.

You don't need all those fancy pitch counts and innings. Just say "pitched for Dusty Baker" and let it go at that. We all know what that means.

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 Post subject: Re: Who else thinks...
PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:34 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
You don't need all those fancy pitch counts and innings. Just say "pitched for Dusty Baker" and let it go at that. We all know what that means.

This is what worries me about Chapman starting. How long until Dusty is abusing him. I am also curious why they want to mess with what was working. I know a starter is worth WAY more than a closer(given they are both effective). But in this case, having Chapman close made almost every game an 8 inning game for the Reds. For most of the season he was untouchable, so if you didn't get the Reds in 8 you were essentially finished. Obviously if he becomes a successful starter then that theory is blown out of the water...


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