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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:51 pm 
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McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Thoughts on the 'Crystal Ball' piece:

It is likely that the O's will have to rebuild soon or might trade youth for 'win now' players, but, if they do deliver on promise, wouldn't they have to hold onto Bundy and/or Machado? When the Pirates tore down their team, they kept Cutch (and Walker). The M's have kept Felix through thick and thin, the Indians still have Asdrubal and Santana... Machado in particular would be great to land, but it's just (unfortunately) doubtful.

And on Sale... the Sox probably rushed him up because their farm system has stunk for years. It's unlikely that he'd have seen as much immediate success as he has if he were drafted by Burgh.

That said, Sale might be an easier land than Bundy. Unless the Sox do turn around their farm system fast they'll probably be in position when you say to trade a player like Sale for prospects.

Good stuff as always.


My more in-depth thinking on this is as follows. Baltimore's farm system is pretty thin. Really thin actually. It's Bundy and then Gausman (Machado has technically graduated), then half a handful of B- guys and some scrubs. Let's say Baltimore decides to go for it this season and they go big this trade deadline and get a few (two; player A and player B) guys who have 1.5 years or 2.5 years left of team control. They basically sell the farm system except Bundy and Gausman.

Regardless of what they actually do, the 2014 season finishes. Let's say player A nets them a draft pick in free agency the other is around for one more year. Their roster construction would be as follows. Adam Jones had three expensive years left on his contract and he'll be 30 soon. He'll still be good, but he's not a guy you can count on to be good in say 2017. Matt Weiters is a year away from free agency. J.J. Hardy is a free agent. Then you've got Bundy and Machado.

Orioles management looks at a barren farm system, they've just lost two key components to free agency and another will be a free agent after the season (and Nick Markakis as well probably). They've got an extra draft pick and might get another with Hardy. If they trade Weiters and player B, they can start to rebuild a barren farm system. Now, they can keep Machado and Bundy for the years they have them, try and extend them, etc - I wouldn't fault them at all - but at the same time, there just isn't much in the pipeline to support Machado and Bundy and two players, no matter how good they are, can't do it all. Now, maybe they are able to resign Weiters. Maybe their farm system has several guys break out this season and they have stuff in the pipeline to compliment Bundy and Machado. The other option is to trade both when they each have several years of team control left (maybe it's after the 2015 season; they decide to try to go for it one more year, make sure player A and B have 2.5 years of control this deadline to get them through 2015, and let Weiters walk taking the draft pick) and just really restock the farm system and try another rebuild. I think that's certainly palatable considering they did make the playoffs.

Honestly, it's improbable, but it's pretty hard predicting the off season trade market 2-3 years from now ;) . I just think, if things go a certain way for the O's, they could find themselves in a situation 2-3 years from now looking at a barren farm system and not enough talent on the major league squad to compete in the AL east. On the other hand, if they can get 2 extra years from each Bundy and Machado so both are signed through at least 2020, they could just trade Adam Jones and Weiters in a few years to get the prospects they need to back those guys up. I'm just spitballing now.

Thanks for the compliment!


On an aside, I think you can count the number of times that teams are trading low cost superstar talents with 4+ years of MLB control on 0 fingers. Bundy and Machado in 2014-2015 is nonsense. You either get these guys by suckering a stupid GM at the prospect level (D.Moore) or you get them when they are about to become FA's. As for Sale, his arm will have fallen off well before that.

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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:24 pm 
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Inge has incredible, incredible defense. He hits lefties better than Pedro too. I think it's worth platooning him unless you believe Pedro can make significant strides this year against southpaws. I don't personally.[/quote]

Pedro is a 26 year old franchise cornerstone, it is way, way too early to be discussing platooning him and giving up on him as an everyday player.

Inge HAD incredible defense, he's been just above average over the last 5 years. He is done, his 2012 numbers in Oakland were his proverbial "dead cat bounce". He was likely on the same stuff that allowed Brandon Moss to crush the ball for 1/2 a season.[/quote]

Eh, maybe you are right on Inge - although his UZR numbers were fantastic last year; that said, they have been trending down - but I don't think Pedro should be immune to being platooned. I understand he's 26, but he's not a cornerstone, high draft pick and lofty prospect status aside. Plus, the numbers show he severely needs a platoon. No way around it.

2012
vLHP
78 wRC+
.284 wOBA
.684 OPS

vRHP
124 wRC+
.353 wOBA
.833 OPS

Career
vLHP
74 wRC+
.281 wOBA
.634 OPS

vRHP
111 wRC+
.335 wOBA
.775 OPS

For his career, he's struck out 10% of the time more against LHP. Using plate appearances, he hits a homerun 2.77% of the time against LHP. Against RHP, 4.50% of the time. The best thing about Pedro - his ability to hit long balls - doesn't even happen against LHP.

It's not like Pedro won't be useful either. He had 434 PA against RHP last year. He'll get plenty of trips to the plate just facing right-handers.


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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 8:49 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Pedro is a 26 year old franchise cornerstone, it is way, way too early to be discussing platooning him and giving up on him as an everyday player.

Agreed. The occasional day off against a nasty lefty? Sure.

Full-time platoon? No.


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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 9:40 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
McCutchenistheTruth wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Thoughts on the 'Crystal Ball' piece:

It is likely that the O's will have to rebuild soon or might trade youth for 'win now' players, but, if they do deliver on promise, wouldn't they have to hold onto Bundy and/or Machado? When the Pirates tore down their team, they kept Cutch (and Walker). The M's have kept Felix through thick and thin, the Indians still have Asdrubal and Santana... Machado in particular would be great to land, but it's just (unfortunately) doubtful.

And on Sale... the Sox probably rushed him up because their farm system has stunk for years. It's unlikely that he'd have seen as much immediate success as he has if he were drafted by Burgh.

That said, Sale might be an easier land than Bundy. Unless the Sox do turn around their farm system fast they'll probably be in position when you say to trade a player like Sale for prospects.

Good stuff as always.


My more in-depth thinking on this is as follows. Baltimore's farm system is pretty thin. Really thin actually. It's Bundy and then Gausman (Machado has technically graduated), then half a handful of B- guys and some scrubs. Let's say Baltimore decides to go for it this season and they go big this trade deadline and get a few (two; player A and player B) guys who have 1.5 years or 2.5 years left of team control. They basically sell the farm system except Bundy and Gausman.

Regardless of what they actually do, the 2014 season finishes. Let's say player A nets them a draft pick in free agency the other is around for one more year. Their roster construction would be as follows. Adam Jones had three expensive years left on his contract and he'll be 30 soon. He'll still be good, but he's not a guy you can count on to be good in say 2017. Matt Weiters is a year away from free agency. J.J. Hardy is a free agent. Then you've got Bundy and Machado.

Orioles management looks at a barren farm system, they've just lost two key components to free agency and another will be a free agent after the season (and Nick Markakis as well probably). They've got an extra draft pick and might get another with Hardy. If they trade Weiters and player B, they can start to rebuild a barren farm system. Now, they can keep Machado and Bundy for the years they have them, try and extend them, etc - I wouldn't fault them at all - but at the same time, there just isn't much in the pipeline to support Machado and Bundy and two players, no matter how good they are, can't do it all. Now, maybe they are able to resign Weiters. Maybe their farm system has several guys break out this season and they have stuff in the pipeline to compliment Bundy and Machado. The other option is to trade both when they each have several years of team control left (maybe it's after the 2015 season; they decide to try to go for it one more year, make sure player A and B have 2.5 years of control this deadline to get them through 2015, and let Weiters walk taking the draft pick) and just really restock the farm system and try another rebuild. I think that's certainly palatable considering they did make the playoffs.

Honestly, it's improbable, but it's pretty hard predicting the off season trade market 2-3 years from now ;) . I just think, if things go a certain way for the O's, they could find themselves in a situation 2-3 years from now looking at a barren farm system and not enough talent on the major league squad to compete in the AL east. On the other hand, if they can get 2 extra years from each Bundy and Machado so both are signed through at least 2020, they could just trade Adam Jones and Weiters in a few years to get the prospects they need to back those guys up. I'm just spitballing now.

Thanks for the compliment!


On an aside, I think you can count the number of times that teams are trading low cost superstar talents with 4+ years of MLB control on 0 fingers. Bundy and Machado in 2014-2015 is nonsense. You either get these guys by suckering a stupid GM at the prospect level (D.Moore) or you get them when they are about to become FA's. As for Sale, his arm will have fallen off well before that.


Read the article? Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez both had 4 years of control left when they were traded. Stanton was reportedly available. Upton just got traded, albeit with a bit less team control. It's unlikely and Bundy + Machado might be too good for a team to afford them prospect-wise, but it happens. Granted, you are ultimately right. Probably wishful thinking on my part.


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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:06 pm 
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Re: O's

Machado should be the goal, but landing Wieters or Jones could probably be easier.

Regardless of who, if anyone, is pursued, should the O's find themselves in need of a rebuild the Pirates may very well line up as good trade partners in OF (Polanco, Marte, Bell...) and P (Heredia, Taillon, others...).

A good indication on whether or not Machado will be available is this year's draft. With two early first rounders (in what we all hope is the last time they pick in the top-10 for some time) it's key to land guys that will either contribute to the big league squad or who will serve as valuable trade chips.

[Young] Pitchers wise, snagging someone from the Tigers (be it Porcello or Scherzer) might be easier. Detroit's going to have to pay Verlander, their bullpen in questionable, their WS window is now and they'll be cash-strapped in 2-3 years unless their owner 'goes for broke' (moreso).

Alternatively, it might only be a matter of time until the A's move some of their arms as their FA approaches (it's what they do). First up will surely be Brett Anderson. Injury concerns and 'pay day' aside, he'd be a nice addition.

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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:19 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Re: O's

Machado should be the goal, but landing Wieters ... could probably be easier.

Image
Unpossible!


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 Post subject: Re: Brandon Inge: Platoon Option + Francisco Liriano Injury
PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2013 2:48 pm 
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Joined: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:18 pm
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Bucfan wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Re: O's

Machado should be the goal, but landing Wieters ... could probably be easier.

Image
Unpossible!


Nice


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