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 Post subject: Stats
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 5:08 am 
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I know thatI'm late to the party but watched MLB and listened to an explanation of reasons to look at the relative value of accepted stats. It made the point that slugging gives a double twice the value of a single and a triple three times and a homer 4 times. But in reality those are not the real value to the offense in scoring and should be altered in the eyes of fans when assessing a players worth. When you look at run producing values, you see a HR is on average worth 1.3 runs, a triple worth .76 runs, a double .47 , a single .32 and a walk worth .27(those numbers may not be exact). So, when rating a player, a HR is worth more than 4 singles and is correctly reflected in his WAR and something called leinier worth(?).

Also, a strke out is more negative then a ground out which is more negative then a flyout interms of run production.

That may make old guys like me to look at these new ways as more valuable for evaluating players. Not sure I got it right but wonder what you guys think of the newer ways of looking at players????

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 Post subject: Re: Stats
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:17 am 
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You know what sub? I'm looking at the overall total offense now rather than individual statistics. I'd prefer a balanced attack with high average players who get the singles, doubles, and triples, along with the big sluggers who get their fair share of home runs.

If a batting line up has speed, high batting averages, and power, it should be a successful offense...in my opinion.

Of course, playing smart and taking advantage of scoring situations are other components that are just as important...in my opinion.

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 Post subject: Re: Stats
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 11:32 am 
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bassoondirector wrote:
You know what sub? I'm looking at the overall total offense now rather than individual statistics. I'd prefer a balanced attack with high average players who get the singles, doubles, and triples, along with the big sluggers who get their fair share of home runs.

If a batting line up has speed, high batting averages, and power, it should be a successful offense...in my opinion.

Of course, playing smart and taking advantage of scoring situations are other components that are just as important...in my opinion.



BD, the problem with using batting average is that it weighs singles, doubles, triples, and HR equally and they clearly are not equal in terms of contribution to offense. It also ignores walks which are nearly as important as singles. That's why OBP is better (but also flawed by treating all hits equal), that's why OPS got popular. OPS is also pretty flawed because it treats OBP and SLG equally and that is far from correct.

In reality if you want one stat look at wOBA or wRC+.

wOBA goes after the problem of all hits not being equal - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index. ... ense/woba/

wRC+ is based off of wOBA and adds in park and league adjustments so it comparable over different hitting environments, be it Coors field, Petco park or 1952. - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/

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 Post subject: Re: Stats
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:19 pm 
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Well, we're all looking for ways to improve on the eye test. And not that that's not important. But slugging percentage was one of the first attempts to get beyond batting average. And since doubles and homeruns have more value than a single, it reflects that. But you are right, it's harder to get a grasp on some of the numbers, esp when there are competing WARs to look at. And of course, some of it is situational. In the example you quoted, 4 consecutive singles (a rare instance granted, but still) may be of greater value than a HR. To wit: say a pitcher hangs his curveball and the batter knocks it out of the park. Said pitcher recovers and gets through the rest of the inning in 9 pitches, and maybe it wasn't a bad inning. But if that same pitcher gives up 4 singles and tosses 35-40 pitches to get out of the inning, well, he may not make it back for the start of the next inning. And that would have a value as well.

But, it's all good, to my way of thinking. Read this piece from Grantland re: using advanced metrics for a game like basketball, and it'll make the value for an event-discrete game like baseball make way more sense.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... -available


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 Post subject: Re: Stats
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:21 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
You know what sub? I'm looking at the overall total offense now rather than individual statistics. I'd prefer a balanced attack with high average players who get the singles, doubles, and triples, along with the big sluggers who get their fair share of home runs.

If a batting line up has speed, high batting averages, and power, it should be a successful offense...in my opinion.

Of course, playing smart and taking advantage of scoring situations are other components that are just as important...in my opinion.

But hasn't that always been the formula?


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 Post subject: Re: Stats
PostPosted: Sun Feb 17, 2013 10:59 pm 
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val wrote:
bassoondirector wrote:
You know what sub? I'm looking at the overall total offense now rather than individual statistics. I'd prefer a balanced attack with high average players who get the singles, doubles, and triples, along with the big sluggers who get their fair share of home runs.

If a batting line up has speed, high batting averages, and power, it should be a successful offense...in my opinion.

Of course, playing smart and taking advantage of scoring situations are other components that are just as important...in my opinion.

But hasn't that always been the formula?


Yes, now people are just putting mathematics behind the "formula".

I think of it this way; people knew that things naturally fell to the ground before Newton came around, Newton just gave us the mathematics behind it (while subsequently discovering calculus- ho hum).


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