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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:19 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:20 pm 
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Should the Pittsburgh Pirates Throw a Victory Parade if They Win 82 Games?

No.

I'm firmly with JC on this one.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:41 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
It wouldn't be enough for me. Finishing .500 has never been, and should never be, the goal. Qualifying for the playoffs is the goal. That's what matters.


Then I take it that you were satisfied with the final results of '90, '91 and '92. And '74 and '75.

I choose to take a realistic view of expectations. I was pleased with the results in '88 because it appeared that the Bucs were going to break out of the miserable stretch in the mid-80s and built upon a decent '87 year. '89 was horrendous following the positive '88 season. I was thrilled with playoff qualification in '90 and disappointed with the loss to the Reds but playoff qualification was "enough" for me that year. Both '91 and '92 broke my heart and playoff qualification was not "enough" for me because those teams had enough talent to win it all.

If you won't be satisfied with anything less than playoff qualification this year, then prepare for disappointment. Your expectations exceed any objective evaluation of what is currently on the roster. This team is, at best, a long shot at qualifying for the playoffs.

A realist's view of the talent on this team suggests that winning more games than it loses along with talent advancement in key positions such as Marte, Alvarez, Walker and Snider would be a positive accomplishment. Seeing advancement from Heredia, Cole, Taillon, Bell, Hansen and Polanco and others in the minors. Yeah, playoff qualification and world championships may be the "ultimate goal" but refusing to be satisfied with solid progression towards that goal is, at least in my eyes, myopic.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:57 pm 
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The ultimate answer to everything is ... 42. (Shout-out to fans of The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.)

Actually, my take is that 82 wins is great - if the teams shows improvement.

If Marte gets on base, shows some power, and his defense is as advertised.

If Travis Snider finds his power and hits 20+ HR's.

If Cole gets a midseason call-up and shows why he was the first pick in the 2011 draft.

If Taillon, Hanson, Polanco, Barnes, Bell, Heredia make really good progress in the minors.

At that point, 82 wins is fine since the 2014 Pirates would be a much more competitive team and possibly a playoff contender.


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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:50 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I know you're opinion on the matter well, have fun being upset with 85 wins, but don't say things like "Qualifying for the playoffs is the goal. That's what matters". Winning matters too, a lot. We all understand that playoffs are the goal, you arn't teaching anyone anything. I highly doubt that anyone here thinks that .500 is the goal.


That's what matters "to me," my friend. And the PBC's stated goals are PLAYOFFS and CHAMPIONSHIP.

Also, I'm not trying to "teach" anybody anything. I'm simply giving you (and the board) my perspective as a born-and-raised Pittsburgher. I know what my city stands for. And it ain't gonna do backflips for slightly above .500 non-playoff baseball seasons.


Your perspective is apparently the same as everyone's, you admit that winning matters, but its not the goal. No one has said they will do "back-flips" if the win 85 games. The question is whether it will be satisfactory. You honestly are telling me that you will be angry about the Pirates 2013 season if they finish 85-77. You know you won't be, you will talk about the positive developments and how it leads to the ultimate goal. Stop being so black and white.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 3:51 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Should the Pittsburgh Pirates Throw a Victory Parade if They Win 82 Games?

No.

I'm firmly with JC on this one.


Everyone on this board agrees on this.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:21 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Your perspective is apparently the same as everyone's, you admit that winning matters, but its not the goal. No one has said they will do "back-flips" if the win 85 games. The question is whether it will be satisfactory. You honestly are telling me that you will be angry about the Pirates 2013 season if they finish 85-77. You know you won't be, you will talk about the positive developments and how it leads to the ultimate goal. Stop being so black and white.


Going 85-77 and not qualifying for the playoffs won't be satisfactory to me as a season. It'll be improvement, but still failure. Hopefully, it'll be failure on the path to success.

I have high standards. Always have. Always will. I refuse to apologize for that.

Oh, and a word about "expectations": The Pirates were 60-44 on August 1, 2012. They should be fielding a slightly better, deeper team this season. Why do so many here consider the playoffs to be a pipe dream in 2013? Given that last year's second-half collapse was largely due to lack of depth and the team shored that up a bit (particularly in terms of pitching), why aren't people gung ho about the Bucs' chances to qualify for the playoffs?


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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 5:18 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Your perspective is apparently the same as everyone's, you admit that winning matters, but its not the goal. No one has said they will do "back-flips" if the win 85 games. The question is whether it will be satisfactory. You honestly are telling me that you will be angry about the Pirates 2013 season if they finish 85-77. You know you won't be, you will talk about the positive developments and how it leads to the ultimate goal. Stop being so black and white.


Going 85-77 and not qualifying for the playoffs won't be satisfactory to me as a season. It'll be improvement, but still failure. Hopefully, it'll be failure on the path to success.

I have high standards. Always have. Always will. I refuse to apologize for that.

Oh, and a word about "expectations": The Pirates were 60-44 on August 1, 2012. They should be fielding a slightly better, deeper team this season. Why do so many here consider the playoffs to be a pipe dream in 2013? Given that last year's second-half collapse was largely due to lack of depth and the team shored that up a bit (particularly in terms of pitching), why aren't people gung ho about the Bucs' chances to qualify for the playoffs?


Largely because the Cardinals and Reds have better teams with less holes on paper. Things could break right for us, Votto could continue to show no power due to his knee, Chapman could be a disaster in the rotation (making Broxton and Arroyo regressions more painful), the Cards young arms could struggle and Garcia could be surgery bound, Furcal and Beltran might miss big chunks of time. There are lots of plausible scenarios that would have us in 1st place, but the odds are against it.

I wouldn't say the collapse was due to lack of depth but rather regression to the mean by many 1st half key over achievers including JMac, Cutch, Walker, and Grilli/Hammer combined with losing 2/5 of the starting rotation (Morton and Bedard). Then the panic set in and things really went to hell, which speaks to the psychological importance of breaking the streak. No team in MLB has enough SP to take losing three effective SP (one ace in JMac) while compensating for key dropoffs from their best two hitters (Walker due to injury) and 8th/9th inning issues.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 6:20 pm 
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Regression to the mean and injuries were part of it but the pyschological aspect was the main reason. They just couldn't take the pressure.

The trade deadline has been a problem both years. Hopefully this year there will be fewer trades and the team will be playing well both before and after the deadline.

I too think the Reds and Cards are better but you never know. I'd be thrilled to make the playoffs but would be fine with breaking the streak this year and true contention next year.


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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:21 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
It wouldn't be enough for me. Finishing .500 has never been, and should never be, the goal. Qualifying for the playoffs is the goal. That's what matters.

There's something we can agree on.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 8:26 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
It wouldn't be enough for me. Finishing .500 has never been, and should never be, the goal. Qualifying for the playoffs is the goal. That's what matters.


Come off it JC, playoffs matter more, but .500 matters too. Its ridiculous to claim that a winning season doesn't matter to a team mired in a 20 year losing streak. It matters to attendance, it matters to merchandise revenue, it matters psychologically to the team and fanbase, it matters to the owner who holds the purse strings.

The Pirates just had their second highest attendance in history in year 20. That streak only matters to the people who enjoy looking in the rear view mirror. Nothing wrong with that, if that's what your into. I'm more interested in now. If the Pirates are not serious contenders deep into September, this season will be a disappointment to me, no matter how many games they win.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2013 10:57 pm 
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This fan says yes.

Just win baby.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 11:44 am 
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Satisfaction: .500 ball and in the hunt throughout all of August.

Unbridled excitement: Challenging for the division last week of season.

Pure Joy: Playoffs. Even a one gamer.

Ecstasy: Playoffs and Scarlett Johannson starts returning my calls.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:59 pm 
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Rochester wrote:
Ecstasy: Playoffs and Scarlett Johannson starts returning my calls.


Good luck with that. She not only failed to return my calls but obtained a restraining order. Something about harassing her with phone calls every 5 minutes . . . .

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:06 pm 
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Per BP - the Bucs project to win 79 games and have a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs. That's not terrible.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:32 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Per BP - the Bucs project to win 79 games and have a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs. That's not terrible.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

It sure as heck ain't great.


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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:42 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The Pirates just had their second highest attendance in history in year 20. That streak only matters to the people who enjoy looking in the rear view mirror. Nothing wrong with that, if that's what your into. I'm more interested in now. If the Pirates are not serious contenders deep into September, this season will be a disappointment to me, no matter how many games they win.

As a diehard fan, I'm not willing to forget about the past 20 years. I get excited for each coming season(looking forward as you say) but I'm not going to just pretend the last 20 years didn't happen(looking in the rear view as you say).

Attendance is influenced by more than just performance, although there was no denying when they were playing well last year the park was full.

For me I think it is about watching fun baseball...which of course goes hand in hand with winning. Seeing that light at the end of the tunnel is important, and I'm not sure I see it just yet. Whoever said about 1988 is correct. That was a fun season because you started to see things coming together. They couldn't beat the Mets, but you could see and sense they were on the verge. That would be acceptable in my book. 90, 91, 92 would be better, and 79 would be the ultimate. But realistically, after 20 miserable seasons I just want to see fun baseball, and that light at the end of the tunnel. I don't wish to watch another epic collapse!


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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:47 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
The Pirates just had their second highest attendance in history in year 20. That streak only matters to the people who enjoy looking in the rear view mirror. Nothing wrong with that, if that's what your into. I'm more interested in now. If the Pirates are not serious contenders deep into September, this season will be a disappointment to me, no matter how many games they win.

As a diehard fan, I'm not willing to forget about the past 20 years. I get excited for each coming season(looking forward as you say) but I'm not going to just pretend the last 20 years didn't happen(looking in the rear view as you say).

Attendance is influenced by more than just performance, although there was no denying when they were playing well last year the park was full.

For me I think it is about watching fun baseball...which of course goes hand in hand with winning. Seeing that light at the end of the tunnel is important, and I'm not sure I see it just yet. Whoever said about 1988 is correct. That was a fun season because you started to see things coming together. They couldn't beat the Mets, but you could see and sense they were on the verge. That would be acceptable in my book. 90, 91, 92 would be better, and 79 would be the ultimate. But realistically, after 20 miserable seasons I just want to see fun baseball, and that light at the end of the tunnel. I don't wish to watch another epic collapse!


The "fun" factor is pretty big for me too PP, being a season ticket holder. That is a key reason why I don't view 2012 as darkly as many others. I just can't erase high fiving my family and friends at PNC being 16 games over and all the joy that went with that. The collapse didn't negate all the fun of the 4 months being a true contender. I enjoyed the path we took to 79 wins much more than if we had played right at .500 all year sitting in 4th place.

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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:54 pm 
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val wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Per BP - the Bucs project to win 79 games and have a 17.0% chance of making the playoffs. That's not terrible.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

It sure as heck ain't great.


So you're tellin' me there's a chance?



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 Post subject: Re: Is .500 going to be enough for Pirates fans this season?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:56 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
I don't wish to watch another epic collapse!


If the Pirates have a third epic collapse in three seasons, I will start a thread on this board that will blow up the internet. Figuratively, not literally.


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