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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 4:04 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:

Huge risk.

Tim Lincecum. Throws 200+ innings per year. No injury history. ERA under 3 every year. 2 Cy Youngs. Strikes out 250+ per year. 5 years $100 mil? Worth it.


In fairness, Timmy looks like his arm is about to separate from his body on each pitch. He and Felix are two very different animals. Still any long term SP deal is filled with risk.



Yeah, that is true. But there are a whole lot more of these guys than there are Clemenses.


There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:09 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:

Well that will surely make them contenders.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:14 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

Note the eventual fate of Gooden's right elbow.

That said, Felix's arm didn't take the early abuse that Gooden's did. Maybe he'll stay healthy.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:41 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

Note the eventual fate of Gooden's right elbow.

That said, Felix's arm didn't take the early abuse that Gooden's did. Maybe he'll stay healthy.


Gooden regressed before the arm injury, his K rate plummeted immediately to the 7.50 range where we has merely a very good pitcher for 10 years. I think the nostrils were a bigger issue for him. Point taken, any pitcher is healthy until they are not.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:19 pm 
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Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:22 pm 
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For those of you who aren't aware of the great blog USS Mariner, it lit up with the signing.

A great analysis by one commenter here:

Quote:
Somebody above asked about attendance differences when Felix is pitching, and it is a good question that illustrates Dave’s point well. Last year, the Mariners drew 1,171,920 (an average of 21,258 over 81 games). In 18 home starts by Felix, the Mariners drew 436,515 (an average of 24,251 per game). However, Felix’s impact isn’t measured by the difference in those two averages, because Felix was a big part of why the overall attendance per game average was as high as it was. If you subtract the attendance in games pitched by Felix, the Mariners drew 735,405 over 63 games – an average of only 11,673 per game. Basically, on average, attendance DOUBLED in 2012 when Felix pitched. Do you really think the Mariners could afford to leave their fan base with the impression that they might let Felix go?

Beyond that, this is a pretty fair contract, in terms of Felix’s expected value over the life of the contract.

By fWAR, Felix has averaged 6.0 WAR over both the last 3-year and 4-year periods (his age 24-26 and 23-26 seasons, respectively), and rWAR has him a bit lower (4.9 WAR/year over the last 3 years, and 5.1 WAR over the last 4). Felix is still a year away from what most aging curves would say is his expected peak, and he has been extremely durable and mostly injury free for his MLB career (since his first full year in MLB, he has never failed to make at least 30 starts, and hasn’t thrown less than 200 innings in a season since his age 21 year, when the Mariners were restricting his innings; even then, he has never thrown less than 190 innings in any full MLB season).

Apart from a discussion of which version of WAR you prefer, there is no projection system which would not peg Felix in 2013 as less than a 5-win player, with 6 WAR probably a fairer projection.

If you peg dollars per win at somewhere between $5.25M and $5.5M per year (I think it is closer to $5.5M per year this year), assume a 5% increase per year in the dollar value of a win, and an average decline of 0.5 WAR per season, you find that Felix’s contract is pretty damn fair.

At the rosy end of the projections (assuming a 2013 starting point of 6.0 WAR, with the dollar value of wins at $5.5M), Felix will be “worth” $197.25M over the life of this contract – over $20M more than the Mariners paid. On the other end of the spectrum, if you assume the dollar value of a win is $5.25M and Felix starts at 5.0 WAR instead of 6.0, his value over the life of the contract is $146M.

A more moderately conservative projection, using $5.25M per win, and Felix’s starting value in 2013 at 5.5 WAR, shows Felix being worth $167M over the life of the contract – pretty close to what the M’s paid. If the value of a win is $5.5M to start – as I think it is – and Felix is a 5.5-win player now, the expected value Felix will produce is *exactly* $175M over the life of the contract.

Of course, you can’t really assign any particular “expected decline” to any pitcher, because they can get hurt at any time. However, assuming Felix doesn’t have a career-ending injury in the first five years or so, from a baseball perspective this contract should work out just fine. And really, from a business perspective, they had no choice.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 11:00 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.


Great comp too NS! They better hope it doesn't prove to be accurate. Fernando was awesome up until age 26 then was never the same. Of course he threw 250+ innings for 6 straight years maxing out at 285.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:52 pm 
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ESPN reporting that the deal isn't done yet and "one side" in the negotiations has concerns about his elbow.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:39 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
ESPN reporting that the deal isn't done yet and "one side" in the negotiations has concerns about his elbow.

Let me guess which side ....

Young pitchers who carry the work load that Felix did now seem headed to Dr. Yocum a very large percentage of the time.


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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:29 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
For those of you who aren't aware of the great blog USS Mariner, it lit up with the signing.

A great analysis by one commenter here:

Quote:
Somebody above asked about attendance differences when Felix is pitching, and it is a good question that illustrates Dave’s point well. Last year, the Mariners drew 1,171,920 (an average of 21,258 over 81 games). In 18 home starts by Felix, the Mariners drew 436,515 (an average of 24,251 per game). However, Felix’s impact isn’t measured by the difference in those two averages, because Felix was a big part of why the overall attendance per game average was as high as it was. If you subtract the attendance in games pitched by Felix, the Mariners drew 735,405 over 63 games – an average of only 11,673 per game. Basically, on average, attendance DOUBLED in 2012 when Felix pitched. Do you really think the Mariners could afford to leave their fan base with the impression that they might let Felix go?

Beyond that, this is a pretty fair contract, in terms of Felix’s expected value over the life of the contract.

By fWAR, Felix has averaged 6.0 WAR over both the last 3-year and 4-year periods (his age 24-26 and 23-26 seasons, respectively), and rWAR has him a bit lower (4.9 WAR/year over the last 3 years, and 5.1 WAR over the last 4). Felix is still a year away from what most aging curves would say is his expected peak, and he has been extremely durable and mostly injury free for his MLB career (since his first full year in MLB, he has never failed to make at least 30 starts, and hasn’t thrown less than 200 innings in a season since his age 21 year, when the Mariners were restricting his innings; even then, he has never thrown less than 190 innings in any full MLB season).

Apart from a discussion of which version of WAR you prefer, there is no projection system which would not peg Felix in 2013 as less than a 5-win player, with 6 WAR probably a fairer projection.

If you peg dollars per win at somewhere between $5.25M and $5.5M per year (I think it is closer to $5.5M per year this year), assume a 5% increase per year in the dollar value of a win, and an average decline of 0.5 WAR per season, you find that Felix’s contract is pretty damn fair.

At the rosy end of the projections (assuming a 2013 starting point of 6.0 WAR, with the dollar value of wins at $5.5M), Felix will be “worth” $197.25M over the life of this contract – over $20M more than the Mariners paid. On the other end of the spectrum, if you assume the dollar value of a win is $5.25M and Felix starts at 5.0 WAR instead of 6.0, his value over the life of the contract is $146M.

A more moderately conservative projection, using $5.25M per win, and Felix’s starting value in 2013 at 5.5 WAR, shows Felix being worth $167M over the life of the contract – pretty close to what the M’s paid. If the value of a win is $5.5M to start – as I think it is – and Felix is a 5.5-win player now, the expected value Felix will produce is *exactly* $175M over the life of the contract.

Of course, you can’t really assign any particular “expected decline” to any pitcher, because they can get hurt at any time. However, assuming Felix doesn’t have a career-ending injury in the first five years or so, from a baseball perspective this contract should work out just fine. And really, from a business perspective, they had no choice.


But what are the chances that Felix will put up that kind of WAR? This blog post, from the excellent High Heat Stats blog, takes a look at how similar pitchers have fared.

http://www.highheatstats.com/2013/02/king-felixs-new-clothes/

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:51 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

Note the eventual fate of Gooden's right elbow.

That said, Felix's arm didn't take the early abuse that Gooden's did. Maybe he'll stay healthy.


Gooden regressed before the arm injury, his K rate plummeted immediately to the 7.50 range where we has merely a very good pitcher for 10 years. I think the nostrils were a bigger issue for him. Point taken, any pitcher is healthy until they are not.

I"ve seen a lot of pitchers start to falter before an injury crops up. I have a theory that they are injured for quite some time before the pain becomes too severe to keep pitching. Just a theory, mind you. I don't have any kind of evidence to back it up apart from observation over a lot of seasons.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:55 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.

The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 8:59 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.


Great comp too NS! They better hope it doesn't prove to be accurate. Fernando was awesome up until age 26 then was never the same. Of course he threw 250+ innings for 6 straight years maxing out at 285.

Fernando racked up a season of 285 innings at age 21, the first of six consecutive seasons in which he exceeded Felix's career high. I haven't seen too many pitchers so abused at an early age as Fernando was.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:08 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.


Actually, I (and quite a few others) argued just last year that the Pirates "had to" sign Andrew McCutchen to a long-term extension. That certainly wasn't a mistake.


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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:39 pm 
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donburgh wrote:
But what are the chances that Felix will put up that kind of WAR?


That's the $25 M question.

So long as he stays healthy it's not unreasonable to believe that a young pitcher approaching his prime with Felix's skills can hit 4-ish+ WAR for the duration of his contract [extension] (into his 30's).

He'll probably have to 'reinvent' his technique(s) as he loses MPH on some of his pitches and/or to prevent injury, but unless his arm does blow out or he get 'Steve Blass disease' he should earn most of that contract.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:46 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.


Comparing Kendall to Felix is flawed though, for many and obvious reasons.

The M's and Felix situation is more like the Bucs not retaining Bonds.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2013 9:26 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
The last time the Pirates just "had" to sign a guy, his name was Jason Kendall.

Any time a team starts to think that it just has to sign a guy, they're about to make a big mistake.


Actually, I (and quite a few others) argued just last year that the Pirates "had to" sign Andrew McCutchen to a long-term extension. That certainly wasn't a mistake.

I'm speaking more along the lines of teams having to sign guys to placate the fan base. Also, it's senseless to commit big money long term to anyone if the team has little or no chance of contending in that time.

You really don't have to resign anyone at all. You need to either resign a guy or find a way to replace his production.

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