Proud fans of a 128-year old tradition

It is currently Thu Oct 23, 2014 5:42 am

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 22 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:33 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2245
Location: Naples, FL
Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.



Ok. I didn't know he got it up to .308 last year. That makes sense now.

And yeah, he's pretty much Pedro Cust if he doesn't cut down on the Ks.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 2:44 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
Posts: 5060
Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.

That or increase his walk rate to well over 10%.

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 3:20 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5632
Willton wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Weird that they have Alvarez at a .302 BABIP and only a .235 average altogether. Wasn't his BABIP quite low last season?


His babip was .308 in 2012, .341 in 2010. I expect Pedro to have a decent babip because when he hits it, he hits it hard. Its the 30% K rate that kills his batting average projection. He really has to get that down to 27% or so to take the next step.

That or increase his walk rate to well over 10%.


Pravda.

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 8:02 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 4:52 pm
Posts: 5419
Location: Pittsburgh
Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I agree, neither guy is or they would already be signed. The question is which one will be healthy by early March.

Good question. Impossible at this juncture to comment as to Liriano, since we have basically no information as to Liriano's injury.

I heard today that he has a broken right arm.

_________________
"Enjoy every sandwich." - Warren Zevon


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:04 am 
Offline
User avatar
 WWW  Profile

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:30 pm
Posts: 2245
Location: Naples, FL
sisyphus wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I agree, neither guy is or they would already be signed. The question is which one will be healthy by early March.

Good question. Impossible at this juncture to comment as to Liriano, since we have basically no information as to Liriano's injury.

I heard today that he has a broken right arm.



A broken right arm in January (unless it's like, broken like Bo Jackson's hip was or something) doesn't really seem like it would be a big deal to a veteran left-handed pitcher, but then again I don't know that much.

_________________
AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:36 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5096
Location: Washington, DC
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:46 am 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2010 1:50 pm
Posts: 3879
Location: Glenshaw, PA
J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.


Also Zips likes Phil Irwin much more than expected, plus Zach Stewart and Andy Oliver will likely get looks as SP again. The depth sounds good with one of Marcum/Liriano on board.

_________________
Well NH did get Cutch signed, but what have you done for me lately?


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Sat Apr 26, 2008 6:18 pm
Posts: 5060
Location: Scotch Plains, NJ
Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.


Also Zips likes Phil Irwin much more than expected, plus Zach Stewart and Andy Oliver will likely get looks as SP again. The depth sounds good with one of Marcum/Liriano on board.

I'd be more interested in seeing what PECOTA says about our team.

_________________
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
~H. L. Mencken


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 12:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5096
Location: Washington, DC
I see Irwin/Stewart/Oliver as "insert in case of injury" options. The real pitchers with potential to shine, in my view, are the eight I listed. Come 2014, the Pirates are likely swapping A.J. and Karstens for Cole and Taillon. That'll be an interesting year...


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:51 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:10 am
Posts: 1330
J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.

Throw Morton into the mix for mid-season as well. Obviously, they think he's going to be ready and contribute.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Wed Jan 16, 2013 11:01 pm 
Offline
 Profile

Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:21 am
Posts: 5632
burghermeister wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
If Liriano can throw off of a mound by the end of February, then there's little risk. Hopefully, the Bucs' medical staff can take a look and Liriano can be brought into the fold. At least then the Pirates would have some SP depth:

A.J.
Wandy
J-Mac
Karstens
Liriano
K-McP / Locke
Cole (around July or so)

That's eight starters (three rookies). That could end up being OK.

Throw Morton into the mix for mid-season as well. Obviously, they think he's going to be ready and contribute.


While it would be nicer to have 3 'locks' as opposed to only 2 with another 5 'wild cards', it's not crazy to think that such a bunch (even without Liriano) could be enough to crack 81 right?

Surely one (or two please!) of those 'wilds' can develope into something of a 'lock'... just need the rest to be decent.

(Someone please remember this was not only thought of, but actually written in nine months when they're all posting 5+ ERA's and swapping spots on the DL. ;) :D )

_________________
Rage, rage against the regression of the light.


Top
 
 Post subject: Re: For You Math Folk -- ZiPS Projections for the 2013 Bucs
PostPosted: Thu Jan 17, 2013 12:10 pm 
Offline
User avatar
 Profile

Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 5:46 pm
Posts: 5096
Location: Washington, DC
I see Morton as a wish more than a pitcher. Even when he was effective, he was giving up a ton of hits and exhibiting sketchy control. He's truly a $2 million lottery ticket.


Top
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 22 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2  Next

All times are UTC - 4 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], Google [Bot] and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group  
Design By Poker Bandits