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 Post subject: Re: Gammons tweets that Hanrahan trade is finalized
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:41 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
Predicting player performance is a tough game, dealing mostly in probabilities, but there is one baseball prediction that you can safely make: Garrett Jones will not hit lefties in 2013. Why? Because he never has.

That is the reason why Sanchez has value for the Pirates. His splits show the following against left-handers:

440 PA's, .291/.385/.484, OPS of .869, 15 HR's, 54 BB's, just 60 K's. That is serious offense against left-handed pitching.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... Career&t=b

And Sands has hit lefties well in his limited action thus far:

.316/.372/.532, .904 OPS, 3 HR's in 79 AB's.

Whereas last year against a left-handed starting pitcher, the Pirates were faced with the prospect of putting Jones, Alvarez, Walker, and a guy like Harrison on the field, now they can put Sanchez, Sands, Marte, et al. on the field.

Sanchez needs to regain his form to put up those numbers. He is a middle of the order guy and was pretty average last year against lefties. If he regains his form then I'm with you. From reports I've read, Sands has a long swing with lots of K's. We have plenty of guys like that, so I'm not sure how he helps...


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 Post subject: Re: Gammons tweets that Hanrahan trade is finalized
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:10 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
No, he didn't hit lefties well last year. He had an OPS of .532 against them. He had a .460 OPS against them in 2011. He had a .621 OPS against them in 2010. Predicting player performance is a tough game, dealing mostly in probabilities, but there is one baseball prediction that you can safely make: Garrett Jones will not hit lefties in 2013. Why? Because he never has.

Statistically he wasn't great, although he did better when he started games against lefties. Watching his AB's against lefties last year, he looked better and more confident up until late in the year. I have to admit I thought his numbers were a bit better than that. His 2010 numbers weren't awful and then the last two years they rarely let him hit lefties. I guess my dislike of Gaby Sanchez's performance may have clouded my thinking on Jones. I still hope they keep Jones if they plan on competing next year. His overall performance was solid and unless they get real lucky with this Sands guy or pull another rabbit out of a hat somewhere they will need his production.

I'm hoping that Jones sticks around as well, as he's a very good left handed half of a platoon, good enough that I can grit my teeth and put up with his defense and baserunning. Plus I just like the guy.

Sanchez had a .729 OPS vs. lefties for the year last year (a little higher for the Pirates, I think). But he's put up an .869 OPS against them for his career, and I think he's more likely to move towards that number than he is to have another bad year at the age of 29.

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 Post subject: Re: Gammons tweets that Hanrahan trade is finalized
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 10:42 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
No, he didn't hit lefties well last year. He had an OPS of .532 against them. He had a .460 OPS against them in 2011. He had a .621 OPS against them in 2010. Predicting player performance is a tough game, dealing mostly in probabilities, but there is one baseball prediction that you can safely make: Garrett Jones will not hit lefties in 2013. Why? Because he never has.

Statistically he wasn't great, although he did better when he started games against lefties. Watching his AB's against lefties last year, he looked better and more confident up until late in the year. I have to admit I thought his numbers were a bit better than that. His 2010 numbers weren't awful and then the last two years they rarely let him hit lefties. I guess my dislike of Gaby Sanchez's performance may have clouded my thinking on Jones. I still hope they keep Jones if they plan on competing next year. His overall performance was solid and unless they get real lucky with this Sands guy or pull another rabbit out of a hat somewhere they will need his production.

I'm hoping that Jones sticks around as well, as he's a very good left handed half of a platoon, good enough that I can grit my teeth and put up with his defense and baserunning. Plus I just like the guy.

Sanchez had a .729 OPS vs. lefties for the year last year (a little higher for the Pirates, I think). But he's put up an .869 OPS against them for his career, and I think he's more likely to move towards that number than he is to have another bad year at the age of 29.

Hope you're right on Sanchez. I'm a big Jones fan too. I lost one of my other favorites today so I hope he stays!


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 Post subject: Re: Gammons tweets that Hanrahan trade is finalized
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:36 am 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Hope you're right on Sanchez. I'm a big Jones fan too. I lost one of my other favorites today so I hope he stays!

I've got my fingers crossed. As it stands today, I could see this team winning 72 games, 90 games, or anything in between.

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 Post subject: Re: Gammons tweets that Hanrahan trade is finalized
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:37 am 
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bucco boy wrote:
Of the following,who has options left?
Sanchez
Presley
Marte
Tabata
Snider
Sands


Options remaining - Sanchez, Presley, Sands, Marte

I believe that Snider and Tabata are out of options.

They can't really go into 2013 with this logjam, I can't imagine they brought in Sands to let him rot at AAA. Sands and Sanchez are quite similar at the plate with Gaby having the better hit tool and Sands having better power. Both are capable of wRC+ in the 110 range right now and neither has a bad platoon split.

That said, Jones is certainly the best trade chip they have. See if Baltimore will move Tillman, Arrietta, or Britton.

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 Post subject: Re: Gammons tweets that Hanrahan trade is finalized
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:47 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
bucco boy wrote:
Of the following,who has options left?
Sanchez
Presley
Marte
Tabata
Snider
Sands


Options remaining - Sanchez, Presley, Sands, Marte

I believe that Snider and Tabata are out of options.

They can't really go into 2013 with this logjam, I can't imagine they brought in Sands to let him rot at AAA. Sands and Sanchez are quite similar at the plate with Gaby having the better hit tool and Sands having better power. Both are capable of wRC+ in the 110 range right now and neither has a bad platoon split.

That said, Jones is certainly the best trade chip they have. See if Baltimore will move Tillman, Arrietta, or Britton.


Of the four with options, Presley is probably most likely to be shifted down to AAA, right?

Pretty surprising that Gaby has options left, too.

You're dead on about GJ. Tabata's value is kaput and the rest of the guys you cite, except Marte, were castoffs from other teams (so trading them seems unlikely).

If anyone is going to be shopped, it's almost certain Jones or... *gulp*... Marte.

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