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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:03 am 
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IA Pirate wrote:
I laugh whenever I see someone write how poor last season was for Hanrahan. He had a 2.72 ERA with 36 saves. In other words...he got the job done in All-Star fashion. I don't care what other metrics are used or if he walked the bases loaded before he got the save. He's been one of the best in the game for two years.


The difference between 2011 and 2012...Hanrahan kept us on the edge of our seats a little more, but he got the job done...Did he walk more batters and give up more dingers? Yes...but HE GOT THE JOB DONE!!!
Another example of sabre stupidity...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:27 am 
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House of Poe wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
I laugh whenever I see someone write how poor last season was for Hanrahan. He had a 2.72 ERA with 36 saves. In other words...he got the job done in All-Star fashion. I don't care what other metrics are used or if he walked the bases loaded before he got the save. He's been one of the best in the game for two years.


The difference between 2011 and 2012...Hanrahan kept us on the edge of our seats a little more, but he got the job done...Did he walk more batters and give up more dingers? Yes...but HE GOT THE JOB DONE!!!
Another example of sabre stupidity...


Its not SABR stupidity to examine how well other guys could have done in the role. Sure Joel got the job done, but he was unimpressive about doing it. Joel getting the job done doesn't mean that Grilli couldn't have done better in the role. It also doesn't mean Joel will get it done in 2013. Joel was exceedingly lucky in 2012. Even traditionalists can't seriously argue that really high walk rates and flyball rates is a good thing for a closer.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:29 am 
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House of Poe wrote:
Make no mistake about it, this was a salary dump. They signed Martin and Liriano and needed to shed some payroll so they dealt Hanrahan once Grilli re-signed with the Bucs. They figure they dealt from a strength since the bullpen is strong.
My problem is two-fold. The organization's refusal to spend money for a playoff run and the front office's insane attraction to quantity over quality. The Bucs got a serviceable arm, two guys who have "potential" and a minor league pitcher who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a rowboat...


Its not a salary dump, its a salary rearrangement. They are still increasing payroll over 2012 to record levels. The loaded "salary dump" phrase is more accurately applied to what the Marlins did, slash payroll to low levels to save money.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:46 am 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
Make no mistake about it, this was a salary dump. They signed Martin and Liriano and needed to shed some payroll so they dealt Hanrahan once Grilli re-signed with the Bucs. They figure they dealt from a strength since the bullpen is strong.
My problem is two-fold. The organization's refusal to spend money for a playoff run and the front office's insane attraction to quantity over quality. The Bucs got a serviceable arm, two guys who have "potential" and a minor league pitcher who couldn't hit water if he fell out of a rowboat...


Its not a salary dump, its a salary rearrangement. They are still increasing payroll over 2012 to record levels. The loaded "salary dump" phrase is more accurately applied to what the Marlins did, slash payroll to low levels to save money.

Semantics. Fact is that this owner continues to keep payroll lower than most other teams of our ilk. Couple that with a GM that I have lost all trust in, and it is hard to see the Pirates being able to build a winner. And I'm not sure that Nutting isn't ok with that. The real problem is baseball itself, but since that ain't getting fixed any time soon.... :evil:


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:55 am 
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House of Poe wrote:
IA Pirate wrote:
I laugh whenever I see someone write how poor last season was for Hanrahan. He had a 2.72 ERA with 36 saves. In other words...he got the job done in All-Star fashion. I don't care what other metrics are used or if he walked the bases loaded before he got the save. He's been one of the best in the game for two years.


The difference between 2011 and 2012...Hanrahan kept us on the edge of our seats a little more, but he got the job done...Did he walk more batters and give up more dingers? Yes...but HE GOT THE JOB DONE!!!
Another example of sabre stupidity...


A little more? I believe everyone could tell he wasn't nearly as dominant this season, chalk it up to dealing with a nagging injury(which he could have been we don't know), loss of mph on his fastball, mixing in a far lesser quality pitch, or just a simple decline in ability. I've heard complaints that NH was unable to make a shrewd trade either here or Bucs Dugout but to me this was a very shrewd deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 12:08 pm 
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I agree that Hanrahan was somewhat lucky last year. Many times the guy was wild to the point of Steve Blass disease. Hitters often bailed him out by swinging when they had no business doing so.

Considering that they had to dump Hanrahan's salary, they got a pretty good return. Neil got what he could get. If there was a better offer out there, he would have taken it.

I heard a couple of media reports saying that Hanrahan would definitely have been worth more had the Pirates waited until spring training, but I don't see why that would be true. There is a very real chance his value might have declined even further.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:05 pm 
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There are no numbers in exsistence that quantify the psychological difference between getting three outs in the middle of a game and getting the final three outs of a game.
Nobody can say with factual basis that Grilli will be able to replace Hanrahan as a closer because nobody knows how he's going to handle the role.
As far as Hanrahan's performance last year, he left his pitches up at times and was erratic control wise, but he still got it done. Is this a trend? No because anybody can have an off year...he might have been hurt or he might have had off the field problems...nobody knows...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:09 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There are no numbers in exsistence that quantify the psychological difference between getting three outs in the middle of a game and getting the final three outs of a game.
Nobody can say with factual basis that Grilli will be able to replace Hanrahan as a closer because nobody knows how he's going to handle the role.
As far as Hanrahan's performance last year, he left his pitches up at times and was erratic control wise, but he still got it done. Is this a trend? No because anybody can have an off year...he might have been hurt or he might have had off the field problems...nobody knows...

So your thesis is "nobody knows." Nobody knows if Grilli will be an effective closer next year, and nobody knows if Hanrahan will be an effective closer next year. Fantastic analysis, sir. Thanks for making the rock-solid case for keeping Hanrahan. :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:20 pm 
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Willton wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
There are no numbers in exsistence that quantify the psychological difference between getting three outs in the middle of a game and getting the final three outs of a game.
Nobody can say with factual basis that Grilli will be able to replace Hanrahan as a closer because nobody knows how he's going to handle the role.
As far as Hanrahan's performance last year, he left his pitches up at times and was erratic control wise, but he still got it done. Is this a trend? No because anybody can have an off year...he might have been hurt or he might have had off the field problems...nobody knows...

So your thesis is "nobody knows." Nobody knows if Grilli will be an effective closer next year, and nobody knows if Hanrahan will be an effective closer next year. Fantastic analysis, sir. Thanks for making the rock-solid case for keeping Hanrahan. :roll:


Dude, you're a tool... Hanrahan has been proven to be an effective closer, Grilli has no such history... If u don't get that, you don't understand the game...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:52 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
Willton wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
There are no numbers in exsistence that quantify the psychological difference between getting three outs in the middle of a game and getting the final three outs of a game.
Nobody can say with factual basis that Grilli will be able to replace Hanrahan as a closer because nobody knows how he's going to handle the role.
As far as Hanrahan's performance last year, he left his pitches up at times and was erratic control wise, but he still got it done. Is this a trend? No because anybody can have an off year...he might have been hurt or he might have had off the field problems...nobody knows...

So your thesis is "nobody knows." Nobody knows if Grilli will be an effective closer next year, and nobody knows if Hanrahan will be an effective closer next year. Fantastic analysis, sir. Thanks for making the rock-solid case for keeping Hanrahan. :roll:


Dude, you're a tool... Hanrahan has been proven to be an effective closer, Grilli has no such history... If u don't get that, you don't understand the game...

Oh, I understand that just fine. I also understand that Shingo Takatsu was a "proven closer" in Chicago, Shawn Chacon was a "proven closer" in Colorado, Billy Koch was a "proven closer" in Oakland and Toronto, Dan Kolb was a "proven closer" in Milwaukee, and Todd Jones was a "proven closer" twice in Detroit. I also know that such "proof" did not mean a damn thing the years following their seasons as "proven closers" because despite racking up save totals, they each benefited from a good deal of luck and were not really as effective as they appeared in getting batters out. A look at their FIP and xFIP rates would have indicated as much.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:52 pm 
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None of those guys mentioned are remotely close to Hanrahan's talent and u know that...at least I hope u know that...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 2:56 pm 
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Grilli was very effective in the eight inning last year. He is mature and appears to be very determined. I expect him to be able to handle the pressure of performing in the ninth.

Hanrahan I could see going either way. He seemed to be on the verge of a meltdown last year. The pressure of pitching in Boston may send him over the edge, or he may get over his nervousness and perform very well. He certainly has the stuff to do that.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:03 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
None of those guys mentioned are remotely close to Hanrahan's talent and u know that...at least I hope u know that...

Oh, I know that. That's why I'm not cavalierly throwing around the "proven closer" label. I'm judging Hanrahan based on his performance in the areas over which he has control: strikeouts, walks, and groundball/flyball ratio, all of which is tidily wrapped up in the FIP and xFIP (i.e., Fielder Independent Pitching and Expected Fielder Independent Pitching) statistics. In other words, I'm judging Hanrahan based on past performance as a predictor of future performance, and his past performance that indicates that his 2011 was the anomaly and his 2012 was extremely lucky. He's a good reliever, but not so good as to warrant a $7M salary or a higher return than the Pirates received via trade.

If you are as high on Hanrahan as you appear to be, perhaps you should tout Hanrahan based on his actual ability and not because he is a "proven closer." Being a "proven closer" means jack squat, as I indicated upthread.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:22 pm 
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There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...
Do me a favor and tell me if any of those came remotely close to Hanrahan's save %... also, this is Joel's free agent year and he will want to get paid a ton of benjaimin's...another reason for a bounce back year...
I'm enjoying the debate....and I am grudgingly learning a little...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 4:06 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...
Do me a favor and tell me if any of those came remotely close to Hanrahan's save %... also, this is Joel's free agent year and he will want to get paid a ton of benjaimin's...another reason for a bounce back year...
I'm enjoying the debate....and I am grudgingly learning a little...

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com
Code:
"Proven Closer"  Year  Team  Save%

Shingo Takatsu   2005   CHW   95%
Shawn Chacon     2004   COL   80%
Billy Koch       1999   TOR   89%
Billy Koch       2000   TOR   87%
Billy Koch       2001   TOR   82%
Billy Koch       2002   OAK   88%
Dan Kolb         2003   MIL   91%
Dan Kolb         2004   MIL   89%
Todd Jones       1997   DET   86%
Todd Jones       1998   DET   88%
Todd Jones       1999   DET   86%
Todd Jones       2000   DET   91%
Todd Jones       2005   FLA   89%
Todd Jones       2006   DET   86%

Joel Hanrahan    2011   PIT   91%
Joel Hanrahan    2012   PIT   90%


Admittedly, I should exclude Shawn Chacon because everybody and their brother knew he was bad. In addition, I will note that Todd Jones was very good for the Marlins in 2006. But there you have it.

Feel free to draw your own conclusions. My conclusion: saves and save percentage are not an accurate reflection of a relief pitcher's ability to prevent runs in the final inning of a game.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:37 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There are no numbers in exsistence that quantify the psychological difference between getting three outs in the middle of a game and getting the final three outs of a game.
Nobody can say with factual basis that Grilli will be able to replace Hanrahan as a closer because nobody knows how he's going to handle the role.
As far as Hanrahan's performance last year, he left his pitches up at times and was erratic control wise, but he still got it done. Is this a trend? No because anybody can have an off year...he might have been hurt or he might have had off the field problems...nobody knows...

There was no difference before some sportswriter invented the save statistic, and for a couple of decades afterwards.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:42 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...

I call bullshit. In many games last year Grilli faced tougher hitters in the eighth than Hanrahan saw in the ninth. If you are suggesting that the same hitter is better in the ninth inning of close games than at any other time, bring on your evidence.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:04 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...

I call bullshit. In many games last year Grilli faced tougher hitters in the eighth than Hanrahan saw in the ninth. If you are suggesting that the same hitter is better in the ninth inning of close games than at any other time, bring on your evidence.


His point does not relate to the hitters faced by the pitcher, but rather the pressure felt by the pitcher attempting to close out the game.

I know it irks the saber crowd, but the truth is that baseball players are people. And different people react to pressure differently. Some people maintain their level of performance in the face of extreme pressure. Some coaches, like Mike Tomlin, call this have a "slow heartbeat." Other people get a little tight, grip the ball a bit harder, and struggle to maintain their normal level of performance in key pressurized moments.

It's possible that Grilli will try to throw a little harder when he's protecting a 1-run lead in the ninth inning of a game before a full house at PNC Park. We don't know. I saw him struggle a bit in a closing situation at PNC last year against Kansas City. It's not bullshit; it's a possibility. What some people call "proven closers" at least have a track record of performing under that level of pressure. There's some value in that, even if it's limited and not as important as overall performance.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:25 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
There's a big difference between getting outs in the 7th or 8th innings and getting the last three outs...just like there's more on the line in a September game than there is in a game in May...

I call bullshit. In many games last year Grilli faced tougher hitters in the eighth than Hanrahan saw in the ninth. If you are suggesting that the same hitter is better in the ninth inning of close games than at any other time, bring on your evidence.


His point does not relate to the hitters faced by the pitcher, but rather the pressure felt by the pitcher attempting to close out the game.

I know it irks the saber crowd, but the truth is that baseball players are people. And different people react to pressure differently. Some people maintain their level of performance in the face of extreme pressure. Some coaches, like Mike Tomlin, call this have a "slow heartbeat." Other people get a little tight, grip the ball a bit harder, and struggle to maintain their normal level of performance in key pressurized moments.

It's possible that Grilli will try to throw a little harder when he's protecting a 1-run lead in the ninth inning of a game before a full house at PNC Park. We don't know. I saw him struggle a bit in a closing situation at PNC last year against Kansas City. It's not bullshit; it's a possibility. What some people call "proven closers" at least have a track record of performing under that level of pressure. There's some value in that, even if it's limited and not as important as overall performance.


Come on JC, its tougher to come in with runners on base and get outs to prevent a run than it is to start a inning with no one on base. The 9th inning mental game might have some small effect, but Joel had no proven ability prior to 2011 when he got his shot. Melancon has proven ability in the 9th while Grilli is clearly better than Joel as a pitcher.

Its funny that anyone outside of Pittsburgh who isn't applying emotion to this thinks the Bucs at worst made an even trade. Many, including some in Boston think we will win handily.

Its the same thing we saw with Russell Martin, any outside person saw the top FA catcher with a good contract. Around town we attach 20 years of failure to the move. Someone asked Dave Cameron why teh Pittsburgh local press didn't like the move and his reply was spot on "bitterness".

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 7:35 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Grilli is clearly better than Joel as a pitcher.


Wait...what?!?

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