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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:07 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I'd like to see two more prospects with similar upside.


Perhaps, but are targeting players with 'upside' what the Bucs should be doing right now?

Last year and certainly two years ago that made sense. For 2013, coming off of a solid and suprising 2012, what does 'upside' do for the big league squad?

As others have said, there are already enough guys on the roster with that 'upside' like Liriano, Morton, Presley, Robinson, Sanchez, Snider, Tabata...

If the Pirates want to get better and/or make a go of things in 2013, 'upside' needs to be less of a target as opposed to 'impact'.

Liriano and Martin made sense to add for potential and/or immediate 'impact', but, depending on what other player is involved with Hammer, trading too much for 'upside' is a risky proposition which the Bucs can ill afford if competing for 2013/14 is the goal.

I'd rather that the other two players be less 'upside' and more 'impact' or that instead of four 'upside' guys it was one or two 'impact'.

We'll see, I guess.


I don't necessarily disagree, Joel's value to the team in 2013 may outweigh the return, we'll see. That said he wasn't very good last year, so don't overestimate his value for 2013. Really 2011 looks like the anomaly, low K's, low BB's, great slider, extra mph.

I'm sure NH shopped him as the old "proven closer" but apparently GM's arn't falling for it as much as they used to. They should have dealt Joel last winter as many here suggested.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:54 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I'd like to see two more prospects with similar upside.


Perhaps, but are targeting players with 'upside' what the Bucs should be doing right now?

Last year and certainly two years ago that made sense. For 2013, coming off of a solid and suprising 2012, what does 'upside' do for the big league squad?

As others have said, there are already enough guys on the roster with that 'upside' like Liriano, Morton, Presley, Robinson, Sanchez, Snider, Tabata...

If the Pirates want to get better and/or make a go of things in 2013, 'upside' needs to be less of a target as opposed to 'impact'.

Liriano and Martin made sense to add for potential and/or immediate 'impact', but, depending on what other player is involved with Hammer, trading too much for 'upside' is a risky proposition which the Bucs can ill afford if competing for 2013/14 is the goal.

I'd rather that the other two players be less 'upside' and more 'impact' or that instead of four 'upside' guys it was one or two 'impact'.

We'll see, I guess.


I don't necessarily disagree, Joel's value to the team in 2013 may outweigh the return, we'll see. That said he wasn't very good last year, so don't overestimate his value for 2013. Really 2011 looks like the anomaly, low K's, low BB's, great slider, extra mph.

I'm sure NH shopped him as the old "proven closer" but apparently GM's arn't falling for it as much as they used to. They should have dealt Joel last winter as many here suggested.


Tough to argue, but now what?

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:40 am 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
I'd like to see two more prospects with similar upside.


Perhaps, but are targeting players with 'upside' what the Bucs should be doing right now?

Last year and certainly two years ago that made sense. For 2013, coming off of a solid and suprising 2012, what does 'upside' do for the big league squad?

As others have said, there are already enough guys on the roster with that 'upside' like Liriano, Morton, Presley, Robinson, Sanchez, Snider, Tabata...

If the Pirates want to get better and/or make a go of things in 2013, 'upside' needs to be less of a target as opposed to 'impact'.

Liriano and Martin made sense to add for potential and/or immediate 'impact', but, depending on what other player is involved with Hammer, trading too much for 'upside' is a risky proposition which the Bucs can ill afford if competing for 2013/14 is the goal.

I'd rather that the other two players be less 'upside' and more 'impact' or that instead of four 'upside' guys it was one or two 'impact'.

We'll see, I guess.


I don't necessarily disagree, Joel's value to the team in 2013 may outweigh the return, we'll see. That said he wasn't very good last year, so don't overestimate his value for 2013. Really 2011 looks like the anomaly, low K's, low BB's, great slider, extra mph.

I'm sure NH shopped him as the old "proven closer" but apparently GM's arn't falling for it as much as they used to. They should have dealt Joel last winter as many here suggested.


He walked 2 guys in 8 of his 63 appearances, and 3 guys in 1 of his 63 appearances.

So, in 54 of his 63 appearances, he walked 1 or 0 batters.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:50 am 
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rellimie wrote:
He walked 2 guys in 8 of his 63 appearances, and 3 guys in 1 of his 63 appearances.

So, in 54 of his 63 appearances, he walked 1 or 0 batters.


Statistically, Hammer looked alright 2012. Sure he dipped compared to 2011, but it's hard to be that good forever.

Even if the 'eye test' reveals that Joel had slipped some and it's time to 'sell' on him, it's hard to imagine that Marc !@#$%^ Melancon is a decent replacement option (at any level).

NH has a decent enough track record of picking up RP's who bounce back and all, but... Marc Melancon...

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:54 am 
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rellimie wrote:

He walked 2 guys in 8 of his 63 appearances, and 3 guys in 1 of his 63 appearances.

So, in 54 of his 63 appearances, he walked 1 or 0 batters.


That may well be statistically accurate. However, I can assure you my alcohol expense went WAY up this year watching him. Did you see the wild pitches scooped by the catchers? The deep counts? The killer singles?

That's the problem with statistics. The don't help my liver (xLiv) or Next Day Productivity (fNDP).

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:08 am 
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Rochester wrote:
rellimie wrote:

He walked 2 guys in 8 of his 63 appearances, and 3 guys in 1 of his 63 appearances.

So, in 54 of his 63 appearances, he walked 1 or 0 batters.


That may well be statistically accurate. However, I can assure you my alcohol expense went WAY up this year watching him. Did you see the wild pitches scooped by the catchers? The deep counts? The killer singles?

That's the problem with statistics. The don't help my liver (xLiv) or Next Day Productivity (fNDP).



I'm not saying don't trade him. I agree that he made the last inning interesting at times. I was just clearing up some of the stats that were being thrown around.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:52 am 
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House of Poe wrote:
This is a horrendous deal by the Pirates. Why would anyone trade a proven closer for non prospects...
I am so God da@@ed tired of this organization picking up players that have "upside"...

Amazing how you've made up your mind without seeing half of the players who are coming over to the Pirates.

You need to face the fact that Hanrahan is not rated as highly by major league general managers as he is by Pirate fans.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 2:13 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
He walked 2 guys in 8 of his 63 appearances, and 3 guys in 1 of his 63 appearances.

So, in 54 of his 63 appearances, he walked 1 or 0 batters.


From CBS Sports:
Hanrahan walked 14.2 percent of the batters he faced in 2012 versus a league average of 8.0 percent. A low BABIP and high strand rate -- both figures almost certainly aberrant -- allowed Hanrahan to work around those walks, but he can't bank on such good fortune in 2013, especially if he moves from the NL Central to the AL East.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 2:31 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
Rochester wrote:
rellimie wrote:

He walked 2 guys in 8 of his 63 appearances, and 3 guys in 1 of his 63 appearances.

So, in 54 of his 63 appearances, he walked 1 or 0 batters.


That may well be statistically accurate. However, I can assure you my alcohol expense went WAY up this year watching him. Did you see the wild pitches scooped by the catchers? The deep counts? The killer singles?

That's the problem with statistics. The don't help my liver (xLiv) or Next Day Productivity (fNDP).



I'm not saying don't trade him. I agree that he made the last inning interesting at times. I was just clearing up some of the stats that were being thrown around.


Yeah, I didn't mean to sound like I was starting a fight. I just still have nightmares of him on the mound last year.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 3:05 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
This is a horrendous deal by the Pirates. Why would anyone trade a proven closer for non prospects...
I am so God da@@ed tired of this organization picking up players that have "upside"...

Amazing how you've made up your mind without seeing half of the players who are coming over to the Pirates.

You need to face the fact that Hanrahan is not rated as highly by major league general managers as he is by Pirate fans.


My worry is with someone like Sands included that Jones may be in play.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 12:10 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
This is a horrendous deal by the Pirates. Why would anyone trade a proven closer for non prospects...
I am so God da@@ed tired of this organization picking up players that have "upside"...

Amazing how you've made up your mind without seeing half of the players who are coming over to the Pirates.

You need to face the fact that Hanrahan is not rated as highly by major league general managers as he is by Pirate fans.


I made this post when the deal was to be a 3-1 deal. Obviously, I will wait until the complete deal is announced before I make another post.
For the record, it isn't just Hanrahan that other GM's are under-valuing. They are undervaluing all closers...


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:56 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
This is a horrendous deal by the Pirates. Why would anyone trade a proven closer for non prospects...
I am so God da@@ed tired of this organization picking up players that have "upside"...

Amazing how you've made up your mind without seeing half of the players who are coming over to the Pirates.

You need to face the fact that Hanrahan is not rated as highly by major league general managers as he is by Pirate fans.


I made this post when the deal was to be a 3-1 deal. Obviously, I will wait until the complete deal is announced before I make another post.
For the record, it isn't just Hanrahan that other GM's are under-valuing. They are undervaluing all closers...

No, they are properly evaluating closers. A mere look at the Pirates' propensity for finding relievers off the scrap heap and having them excel as closers (see, e.g. Dotel, Hanrahan, Torres) should provide enough insight as to how difficult it is to find a good closer.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:07 pm 
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House of Poe wrote:
sisyphus wrote:
House of Poe wrote:
This is a horrendous deal by the Pirates. Why would anyone trade a proven closer for non prospects...
I am so God da@@ed tired of this organization picking up players that have "upside"...

Amazing how you've made up your mind without seeing half of the players who are coming over to the Pirates.

You need to face the fact that Hanrahan is not rated as highly by major league general managers as he is by Pirate fans.


I made this post when the deal was to be a 3-1 deal. Obviously, I will wait until the complete deal is announced before I make another post.
For the record, it isn't just Hanrahan that other GM's are under-valuing. They are undervaluing all closers...

More like they've all hired stat guys who have finally managed to get the fact that 60 inning is 60 innings through their heads, I'd guess. There is nothing magical about ninth inning. You just remember it more because it's the last thing you see.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:56 pm 
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My observation relative to closers: They tend to be good pitchers with an out pitch, very often the fastball.

But closers are found every year by numerous teams. Take 2012 for example. NONE of the following was a proven closer or alternatively, thought to be the team's closer at the beginning of spring training, and all did pretty well:

Jim Johnson (Balt) - 51 saves, 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Fernando Rodney (Tor) - 48 saves, 0.60 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Rafael Soriano (NYY) - 48 saves, 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Aroldis Chapman (Cin) - 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Tyler Clippard (Wash) - 32 saves, 3.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Rafael Betancourt (Col) - 31 saves, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Tom Wilhemsen (Sea) - 29 saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Santiago Casilla (SF) - 25 saves, 2.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Kenley Jansen (LAD) - 25 saves, 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

Grant Balfour (Oak) - 24 saves, 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Ernesto Frieri (LAA) - 23 saves, 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Casey Janssen (Tor) - 22 saves, 2.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Glen Perkins (Min) - 16 saves, 2.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Steve Cishek (Mia) - 15 saves, 2.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Ryan Cook (Oak) - 14 saves, 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
Wilton Lopez (Hou) - 10 saves, 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP


http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/saves

The italicazed players had never before acted as major league "closers." I think this pretty well demonstrates that closers are out there and can be found.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:30 am 
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Bucfan wrote:
My observation relative to closers: They tend to be good pitchers with an out pitch, very often the fastball.

But closers are found every year by numerous teams. Take 2012 for example. NONE of the following was a proven closer or alternatively, thought to be the team's closer at the beginning of spring training, and all did pretty well:

Jim Johnson (Balt) - 51 saves, 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Fernando Rodney (Tor) - 48 saves, 0.60 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Rafael Soriano (NYY) - 48 saves, 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Aroldis Chapman (Cin) - 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Tyler Clippard (Wash) - 32 saves, 3.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Rafael Betancourt (Col) - 31 saves, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Tom Wilhemsen (Sea) - 29 saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Santiago Casilla (SF) - 25 saves, 2.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Kenley Jansen (LAD) - 25 saves, 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

Grant Balfour (Oak) - 24 saves, 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Ernesto Frieri (LAA) - 23 saves, 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Casey Janssen (Tor) - 22 saves, 2.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Glen Perkins (Min) - 16 saves, 2.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Steve Cishek (Mia) - 15 saves, 2.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Ryan Cook (Oak) - 14 saves, 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
Wilton Lopez (Hou) - 10 saves, 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP


http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/saves

The italicazed players had never before acted as major league "closers." I think this pretty well demonstrates that closers are out there and can be found.

On a side note, Grant Balfour might be the most fantastic name for a pitcher.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:36 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
My observation relative to closers: They tend to be good pitchers with an out pitch, very often the fastball.

But closers are found every year by numerous teams. Take 2012 for example. NONE of the following was a proven closer or alternatively, thought to be the team's closer at the beginning of spring training, and all did pretty well:

Jim Johnson (Balt) - 51 saves, 2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Fernando Rodney (Tor) - 48 saves, 0.60 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Rafael Soriano (NYY) - 48 saves, 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Aroldis Chapman (Cin) - 38 saves, 1.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Tyler Clippard (Wash) - 32 saves, 3.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Rafael Betancourt (Col) - 31 saves, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Tom Wilhemsen (Sea) - 29 saves, 2.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Santiago Casilla (SF) - 25 saves, 2.84 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Kenley Jansen (LAD) - 25 saves, 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

Grant Balfour (Oak) - 24 saves, 2.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Ernesto Frieri (LAA) - 23 saves, 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
Casey Janssen (Tor) - 22 saves, 2.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP
Glen Perkins (Min) - 16 saves, 2.56 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Steve Cishek (Mia) - 15 saves, 2.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Ryan Cook (Oak) - 14 saves, 2.09 ERA, 0.94 WHIP
Wilton Lopez (Hou) - 10 saves, 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP


http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/saves

The italicazed players had never before acted as major league "closers." I think this pretty well demonstrates that closers are out there and can be found.


Fernando Rodney just had perhaps the best closer season in MLB history, yeah that Fernando Rodney, the guy who came into 2012 with 5 straight seasons with ERA north of 4.

If we get Melancon too its looking better, for those who care -

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... ld-a-team/

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 2:54 pm 
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The 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates just became worse.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 3:00 pm 
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IA Pirate wrote:
The 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates just became worse.


Melancon FIP 3.79 (4.58 in 2012)
Hanrahan FIP 3.62 (4.45 is 2012)

Not sure that is even a fraction of a win.

Lets see what they do next with the CI/OF surplus.

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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:39 pm 
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Hanrahan's xFIP 2012: 4.28
Melancon's xFIP 2012: 3.45

The more I investigate stastics like FIP and xFIP, the more I realize their value. A statistic like ERA is basically irrelevant as a predictor for a relief pitcher; stats like xFIP, on the other hand, tell us a LOT about what the reliever is likely to do in the upcoming season.


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 Post subject: Re: Hanrahan reportedly going to Red Sox
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:41 pm 
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I have no problem with Melancon. I think he'll be a good addition to the bullpen. I doubt he puts up better numbers than Hanrahan in 2013, but he's cheaper and the Bucs control him for four more years. Makes sense.

My problem with this trade is the inclusion of Brock Holt. He's a lefty bat who can just plain hit. He's 24 years old. He's not very good defensively, but he can hold up at second base pretty well and he could get a spot start here and there at short. And the bat is good. Keith Law agreed with this, noting that Brock Holt is likely the best prospect included in the trade. I don't like that the Pirates dumped him and brought in a lesser and older player in De Jesus, who plays better defense but isn't as fast and doesn't hit nearly as well.

Oh, and I've seen a decent amount of Jerry Sands. He was on my fantasy baseball team and I followed him pretty closely when he played for the Dodgers. Even watched a goodly number of Dodgers games. His swing is loooooooong. When he connects, great. But he's very susceptible to off-speed stuff away and good fastballs up. I don't see him (and most scouts don't see him) as an every day position player. Also, his defense is bad.

Finally, I really hope this doesn't mean the Pirates are going to trade Garrett Jones. He's the Pirates' most consistent left-handed hitter, and the team needs him against right-handed starters. Unless people here believe that Travis Snider is going to become a consistently good hitter (which seems a long shot to me), then the Pirates need to hold on to Jones for 2013.


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