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 Post subject: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:50 am 
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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=19125

Its behind the pay wall except for the list itself. BP describes it as one of MLB's most impact heavy systems. The one thing I noticed that was odd is that Hanson is listed as an IF/LF???

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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:56 am 
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Sad part is, after #5 it's all huge question marks. And numbers 3, 4 and 5 (Polanco, Heredia and Hanson) are a looooong way from the majors.

I sure hope Wyatt Mathisen turns out better than Tony Sanchez.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 12:45 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Sad part is, after #5 it's all huge question marks. And numbers 3, 4 and 5 (Polanco, Heredia and Hanson) are a looooong way from the majors.

I sure hope Wyatt Mathisen turns out better than Tony Sanchez.


Sorry, but which MLB system isn't "all question marks" after #5? Texas is the #1 system in my book and here is their #6-10 per BA

6. Luke Jackson, rhp
7. Luis Sardinas, ss/2b
8. Cody Buckel, rhp
9. Jorge Alfaro, c/1b
10. Joey Gallo, 3b

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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 1:03 pm 
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Well, let me ask you this. Are the Pirates typical in that only 2 of their top 5 prospects are even close to the majors? A lot can go wrong between A-ball and the major leagues, which is why we need to temper our expectations for the Polanco/Hanson/Heredia trio.

Only Cole and Taillon project to be with the Pirates in 2013 (Cole) or 2014 (Taillon).


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:23 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Well, let me ask you this. Are the Pirates typical in that only 2 of their top 5 prospects are even close to the majors? A lot can go wrong between A-ball and the major leagues, which is why we need to temper our expectations for the Polanco/Hanson/Heredia trio.

Only Cole and Taillon project to be with the Pirates in 2013 (Cole) or 2014 (Taillon).


Yes I believe they are typical, most top prospects are in the lower minors, below AA (or only a little time at AA). Once a guy gets to AA, he either quickly gets to MLB or he develops warts and drops in the rankings.

Its really irrelevant what level they are at for the long term success of the Pirates. Its about having impact talent for a 6-7 year control window. These guys would all overlap in Pittsburgh.

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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:35 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Well, let me ask you this. Are the Pirates typical in that only 2 of their top 5 prospects are even close to the majors? A lot can go wrong between A-ball and the major leagues, which is why we need to temper our expectations for the Polanco/Hanson/Heredia trio.

Only Cole and Taillon project to be with the Pirates in 2013 (Cole) or 2014 (Taillon).


Yes I believe they are typical, most top prospects are in the lower minors, below AA (or only a little time at AA). Once a guy gets to AA, he either quickly gets to MLB or he develops warts and drops in the rankings.

Its really irrelevant what level they are at for the long term success of the Pirates. Its about having impact talent for a 6-7 year control window. These guys would all overlap in Pittsburgh.


It's not irrelevant. The closer a top prospect is to the majors the less chance there is of injury, regression, etc. With 3 of the Pirates' top 5 prospects in A ball or below, there's a lot of time for those guys to fade.

With the talent level equal, would you rather have a five-star prospect in A or AAA? Obviously, the answer is AAA.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:49 pm 
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By the way, Tim Williams agrees with me that it's a "very young system."

http://www.piratesprospects.com/2012/12 ... .html?wt=2

Outside of Cole and Taillon, that’s a very young system. All of the other players in the top ten have played below high-A ball. Polanco, Hanson, Kingham, and Barnes should jump to high-A this year, and some of those guys could make the jump to Double-A by the end of the year.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:55 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Well, let me ask you this. Are the Pirates typical in that only 2 of their top 5 prospects are even close to the majors? A lot can go wrong between A-ball and the major leagues, which is why we need to temper our expectations for the Polanco/Hanson/Heredia trio.

Only Cole and Taillon project to be with the Pirates in 2013 (Cole) or 2014 (Taillon).


I think if you take into account that this FO has only been building this system for 5 years with very little ML talent to trade then it makes sense that most of the talent is younger.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:56 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19125

Its behind the pay wall except for the list itself. BP describes it as one of MLB's most impact heavy systems. The one thing I noticed that was odd is that Hanson is listed as an IF/LF???


If Hansen makes it to the show it won't be as a SS.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:12 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19125

Its behind the pay wall except for the list itself. BP describes it as one of MLB's most impact heavy systems. The one thing I noticed that was odd is that Hanson is listed as an IF/LF???


If Hansen makes it to the show it won't be as a SS.


Really, I have seen no such conclusion anywhere, just people being skeptical about his arm strength. Even if he isn't a SS he is a 2B, so why would anyone mention LF at this point?

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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:13 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Well, let me ask you this. Are the Pirates typical in that only 2 of their top 5 prospects are even close to the majors? A lot can go wrong between A-ball and the major leagues, which is why we need to temper our expectations for the Polanco/Hanson/Heredia trio.

Only Cole and Taillon project to be with the Pirates in 2013 (Cole) or 2014 (Taillon).


Yes I believe they are typical, most top prospects are in the lower minors, below AA (or only a little time at AA). Once a guy gets to AA, he either quickly gets to MLB or he develops warts and drops in the rankings.

Its really irrelevant what level they are at for the long term success of the Pirates. Its about having impact talent for a 6-7 year control window. These guys would all overlap in Pittsburgh.


It's not irrelevant. The closer a top prospect is to the majors the less chance there is of injury, regression, etc. With 3 of the Pirates' top 5 prospects in A ball or below, there's a lot of time for those guys to fade.

With the talent level equal, would you rather have a five-star prospect in A or AAA? Obviously, the answer is AAA.


Sure I'd rather have a 5 star guy that is AAA already, but how many of those are there?

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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 5:31 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Well, let me ask you this. Are the Pirates typical in that only 2 of their top 5 prospects are even close to the majors? A lot can go wrong between A-ball and the major leagues, which is why we need to temper our expectations for the Polanco/Hanson/Heredia trio.

Only Cole and Taillon project to be with the Pirates in 2013 (Cole) or 2014 (Taillon).


I think if you take into account that this FO has only been building this system for 5 years with very little ML talent to trade then it makes sense that most of the talent is younger.


You wouldn't think that some of that talent this FO drafted in 2008 and 2009 would be closer to the big leagues than A-ball? Seems like those draft classes aren't turning out very well...


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:28 am 
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J_C, basically all prospect lists rely on players below AA, since top-tier talent that is producing in AA or above makes the major leagues and is no longer eligible for the prospect list (see, Marte, Starling).


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:27 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
J_C, basically all prospect lists rely on players below AA, since top-tier talent that is producing in AA or above makes the major leagues and is no longer eligible for the prospect list (see, Marte, Starling).


I hear ya, but 3 of the Pirates' top 5 prospects have yet to play High A ball. Do you think that's typical?


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:34 pm 
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Who the heck is:

9) RHP Nick Kingham


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:34 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
J_C, basically all prospect lists rely on players below AA, since top-tier talent that is producing in AA or above makes the major leagues and is no longer eligible for the prospect list (see, Marte, Starling).


I hear ya, but 3 of the Pirates' top 5 prospects have yet to play High A ball. Do you think that's typical?


How many team's top 5's would you trade ours for straight up?

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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:49 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
J_C, basically all prospect lists rely on players below AA, since top-tier talent that is producing in AA or above makes the major leagues and is no longer eligible for the prospect list (see, Marte, Starling).


I hear ya, but 3 of the Pirates' top 5 prospects have yet to play High A ball. Do you think that's typical?


How many team's top 5's would you trade ours for straight up?


I have no problem with the Pirates' top two. But the top 5 after that consists of three guys WHO HAVEN'T PLAYED HIGH A BALL YET. That's a "very young" system, as I described and Tim Williams agreed. We have no idea if Heredia, Polanco, or Hanson will even make it to the majors.

Anyway, here's a short answer based on my skimming of American League prospect lists:

Certainly the Royals, pre-Myers trade.

Absolutely the Rays, post-Myers trade.

The Rangers have potential stars far closer to the majors (Jurickson Profar, ss, Mike Olt, 3b/1b, Martin Perez, lhp, Leonys Martin, of, Justin Grimm, rhp).

How 'bout the Mariners, who have a star catcher, a nice collection of pitchers and an excellent ss/2b prospect? Mike Zunino, c, Taijuan Walker, rhp, Danny Hultzen, lhp, James Paxton, lhp, Nick Franklin, ss/2b.

Baseball America's top 10 prospects for National League organizations comes out in January. I'll update you then.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:03 pm 
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Charleston_Charlies wrote:
Who the heck is:

9) RHP Nick Kingham

He is a pitcher, drafted out of high school in 2010. He has pitched well for the minor league system, including working up to 127 IP in 2012, with 112 H's allowed and 117 K's. Has very good command, and his fastball is in the low 90's. He is still quite young, and his projections suggest he will add some velocity as he matures.


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 Post subject: Re: BP's Pirates top 10 prospects
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:26 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:

I hear ya, but 3 of the Pirates' top 5 prospects have yet to play High A ball. Do you think that's typical?


How many team's top 5's would you trade ours for straight up?


I have no problem with the Pirates' top two. But the top 5 after that consists of three guys WHO HAVEN'T PLAYED HIGH A BALL YET. That's a "very young" system, as I described and Tim Williams agreed. We have no idea if Heredia, Polanco, or Hanson will even make it to the majors.

Anyway, here's a short answer based on my skimming of American League prospect lists:

Certainly the Royals, pre-Myers trade.

Absolutely the Rays, post-Myers trade.

The Rangers have potential stars far closer to the majors (Jurickson Profar, ss, Mike Olt, 3b/1b, Martin Perez, lhp, Leonys Martin, of, Justin Grimm, rhp).

How 'bout the Mariners, who have a star catcher, a nice collection of pitchers and an excellent ss/2b prospect? Mike Zunino, c, Taijuan Walker, rhp, Danny Hultzen, lhp, James Paxton, lhp, Nick Franklin, ss/2b.

Baseball America's top 10 prospects for National League organizations comes out in January. I'll update you then.


I would only agree on the Mariners, but its pretty even. The old Royals really? Myers, Zimmer plus a bunch of OK prospects (and Starling who looked lost this season)? The Rays now with Myers maybe, its Lee and 3 decent SP prospects? I would consider the Rangers for Profar alone, but Olt is no star and Perez looks like a bust.

I imagine St. Louis would be better with Taveras, Miller, Martinez, Jenkins, Rosenthal, and/or Wong. I don't think any other NL team would be close.

Either way I think you get my point being that the Bucs top 5, with its youth is as good as any team in MLB and you could only argue maybe 3 or 4 teams being better.

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