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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 12:50 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
Porcello is a target, and one I hope the Pirates can get. His K totals have improved each of the past 3 seasons (from 4.64, to 5.14, to 5.46 per 9 IP). His velocity last season was north of 92 mph.

If he moves to the Pirates, with a much better infield defense, and facing pitchers 2-3x per start, his ERA plummets. That is why a stat like xFIP is relevant.

Porcello's xFIP the past 3 seasons: 4.24. 4.02, 3.89.

He is young, getting better, a groundball maven, with improving velocity.

I am 100% for obtaining Porcello.

One report indicated that the Tigers were also alternatively shopping Drew Smyly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/t ... smyly.html

Why, I have no idea. He would be a great addition. Lefty, deals in the 90's, great stuff, pitched well last year for the Tigers in the AL (3.99 ERA, 94 K's in 99 IP). He is just 23, and with his limited ML time, would have at least and maybe 6 years of control for the team that gets him.

Either one would be the Pirates No. 2 or 3 immediately.


Scratch that.....Pirates are about to sign a FA pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:19 pm 
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rellimie wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
Porcello is a target, and one I hope the Pirates can get. His K totals have improved each of the past 3 seasons (from 4.64, to 5.14, to 5.46 per 9 IP). His velocity last season was north of 92 mph.

If he moves to the Pirates, with a much better infield defense, and facing pitchers 2-3x per start, his ERA plummets. That is why a stat like xFIP is relevant.

Porcello's xFIP the past 3 seasons: 4.24. 4.02, 3.89.

He is young, getting better, a groundball maven, with improving velocity.

I am 100% for obtaining Porcello.

One report indicated that the Tigers were also alternatively shopping Drew Smyly.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/t ... smyly.html

Why, I have no idea. He would be a great addition. Lefty, deals in the 90's, great stuff, pitched well last year for the Tigers in the AL (3.99 ERA, 94 K's in 99 IP). He is just 23, and with his limited ML time, would have at least and maybe 6 years of control for the team that gets him.

Either one would be the Pirates No. 2 or 3 immediately.


Scratch that.....Pirates are about to sign a FA pitcher.



I still wouldn't be against it.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 1:53 pm 
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Pirates signed Liriano. His struggles the past 2 years have arisen in large part from his loss of control. He is walking more than 5 batters per 9 IP.

Once again, moving from the AL to the NL makes any pitcher better. If Liriano can find the strike zone and avoid those 5 inning, 100 pitch starts, he will be a good addition.

The likely rotation now looks like this:

Burnett, Rodriguez, McDonald, Liriano, and McPherson/Locke.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 2:10 pm 
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On paper, I actually like that a lot. Especially with Cole at the end of it.

Now let's hope that McDonald and Liriano don't continue being terrible.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:25 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?


First, I appreciate the "with all due respect." That's always a nice way to start a post.

Second, I gave my opinion on the Karstens non-tender based only on information available to me. I certainly acknowledge that NH and his scouts and personnel likely have more information on the topic than I do. I hope they are right and I am wrong. It just doesn't seem that obvious to me at the moment.

Third, if it turns out that, in 2013, Jeff Karstens does not pitch effectively and his services do not prove to be worth $3.8 million, then I will certainly come back here and admit that NH's decision was correct. As you properly note, it is my view that RESULTS matter. So if he turns out to be correct, he will have made a good decision and I will recant my prior criticism.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 9:49 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?


First, I appreciate the "with all due respect." That's always a nice way to start a post.

Second, I gave my opinion on the Karstens non-tender based only on information available to me. I certainly acknowledge that NH and his scouts and personnel likely have more information on the topic than I do. I hope they are right and I am wrong. It just doesn't seem that obvious to me at the moment.

Third, if it turns out that, in 2013, Jeff Karstens does not pitch effectively and his services do not prove to be worth $3.8 million, then I will certainly come back here and admit that NH's decision was correct. As you properly note, it is my view that RESULTS matter. So if he turns out to be correct, he will have made a good decision and I will recant my prior criticism.

If Karstens signs somewhere and manages to crank out 25 or more starts you won't have to rip Huntington, he'll be ripping himself. He's already said that his decision was a gamble, and that if Karstens stays healthy he'll have been very, very wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:34 am 
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sisyphus wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
No. 9 wrote:
JC -
With all due respect, I find it interesting that you are being critical of Pirate management regarding a decision that they made before Karstens has thrown a single pitch in 2013, let alone completing the entire season. You have consistently written that people should not evaluate a particular acquisition, draft, signing, etc. based upon what was known at the time of that decision . . . you have consistently claimed that it is the RESULT that counts. So . . . to be consistent with your prior commentary, I would expect you to be all over NH's case if he signed Karstens for $3.8 and Karstens ended up pitching only 30 innings because of injury. Similarly, if Karstens posted a 6.00+ ERA, you'd be all over NH and his staff for not accurately assessing the situation.

NH has admitted - repeatedly - that they took a risk. He has admitted - repeatedly - that the decision may turn out to be a mistake and that it is a bit of a gamble.

I trust that, if Karstens has a bad year, that you will be wholly consistent with your prior analysis and admit that NH's decision was dead on accurate and that he should be commended for not paying $3.8M on a player who didn't perform. Am I right? Or . . . are you going to stick with your current line of thought and say that NH's decision should be evaluated without the benefit of hindsight?


First, I appreciate the "with all due respect." That's always a nice way to start a post.

Second, I gave my opinion on the Karstens non-tender based only on information available to me. I certainly acknowledge that NH and his scouts and personnel likely have more information on the topic than I do. I hope they are right and I am wrong. It just doesn't seem that obvious to me at the moment.

Third, if it turns out that, in 2013, Jeff Karstens does not pitch effectively and his services do not prove to be worth $3.8 million, then I will certainly come back here and admit that NH's decision was correct. As you properly note, it is my view that RESULTS matter. So if he turns out to be correct, he will have made a good decision and I will recant my prior criticism.

If Karstens signs somewhere and manages to crank out 25 or more starts you won't have to rip Huntington, he'll be ripping himself. He's already said that his decision was a gamble, and that if Karstens stays healthy he'll have been very, very wrong.


I still won't be surprised if Karstens comes back cheap.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:51 pm 
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Looks like I nailed one back on 12/7. I'm a little surprised by the price tag (a little high), but I really like the move. Liriano will really be helped by the RH power suppression at PNC. He and JMac will make or break 2013.

Now flip Joel.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:45 am 
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rellimie wrote:
I still won't be surprised if Karstens comes back cheap.

I don't know where he'll end up, but it looks to me as if the best he can hope for is a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.

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