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 Post subject: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:10 pm 
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We now enter the long cold offseason where the SP market will start to shake out. We have expressed fairly obvious interest in guys like Edwin Jackson and Brandon McCarthy, but it is likely that NH will not spend that much. So, who's going to be in our price range? I figured we could kick around a few names here and there to keep things lively. I mentioned Gavin Floyd elsewhere and we have discussed Chris Capuano, John Lannan, Jair Jurrjens, and Tom Gorzelanny. Of course we are also quite familiar with Karstens and Correia.

What do you guys think about Francisco Liriano? The major issue is walk rate which has hit 5/9IP the last two years. The major upside is K rate which is north of 9/9IP the last two years. We know he can miss bats, but can he keep it in the zone? Liriano is still only 29 and sports a FIP of 4.34 (xFIP of 4.14) in 2012. Would a move to the NL and some work with Uncle Ray result in a bargain? I kind of like the idea.

My other target would be Carlos Villanueva. Why you ask? He is also 29 and comes with a 4.71 FIP (4.09 xFIP) pitching in the AL East in 2012. Last year he K'd 8.8/9IP a tick higher than his career around 8/9IP. He really doesn't have a major control issue as he has been around 2.5:1 K:BB for his career. His xFIP reveals his biggest issue being with HR rate and I wonder if the move to the NL fixes that all by itself. The other concern is the lack of a full season as a SP, so maybe he is the swingman type who starts in the rotation then moves to the pen when Cole arrives (or Locke/McPherson make a push).

I really like the idea of adding two arms so that Locke/McPherson have competition. I see no reason why any of those 4 guys couldn't work in the pen to start giving some flexibility. We saw Brad Lincoln do a lights out job as a reliever last year. Beyond these two we could discuss Shawn Marcum, but I don't see much else out there.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:20 am 
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Seriously BMac gets only $15.5 million for 2 years! NH asleep at the switch.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:19 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Seriously BMac gets only $15.5 million for 2 years! NH asleep at the switch.

Spent too much on our new .211 hitting catcher :D


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:48 pm 
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PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Seriously BMac gets only $15.5 million for 2 years! NH asleep at the switch.

Spent too much on our new .211 hitting catcher :D


Moving hammer alone covers his $6.5 due this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 2:04 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
PirateParrot wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
Seriously BMac gets only $15.5 million for 2 years! NH asleep at the switch.

Spent too much on our new .211 hitting catcher :D


Moving hammer alone covers his $6.5 due this year.


Only if we move hammer and don't take on salary in return. Doesn't look like that's the plan.

Honestly I doubt NH is even calling on this tier of SP.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 2:53 pm 
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BBF wrote:
Honestly I doubt NH is even calling on this tier of SP.


ESPN article listed teams that had contacted or were interested in McCarthy and the Bucs weren't one of them.

NH did say the Martin deal was their "big" move(insert joke here) so I think BBF is correct...probably looking at bringing in some of the lower tier guys(insert joke here) to fill out the rotation. If this IS the case they better hope they are living in a perfect world where: Burnett doesn't show his age, JMac figures it out for a whole season, McPherson shows his promise, Wandy is Wandy...otherwise, pitching could be a real problem.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 4:24 pm 
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Liriano intrigues for sure.

Of course, it's difficult to know if the Bucs can turn around a potential-filled pitcher like him or, perhaps more importantly, if they should even try.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:25 pm 
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I thought that McCarthy was hurt pretty seriously by a line drive to the head at the end of the 2012 season.

Am I mistaken?


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:30 pm 
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Bucfan wrote:
I thought that McCarthy was hurt pretty seriously by a line drive to the head at the end of the 2012 season.

Am I mistaken?


You are correct, he had a skull fracture, but he is 100% now. Maholm got hit when he was a minor leaguer and had a fracture too, or am I remembering wrong?

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 8:56 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
Bucfan wrote:
I thought that McCarthy was hurt pretty seriously by a line drive to the head at the end of the 2012 season.

Am I mistaken?


You are correct, he had a skull fracture, but he is 100% now. Maholm got hit when he was a minor leaguer and had a fracture too, or am I remembering wrong?

Both correct. McCarthy would have been worth a gamble. Seems very solid and consistent.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:02 pm 
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I might get beat up over this statement, but I have very little confidence in JMac for next year. I thought he was the first big collapse of the Pirate season last year. In other words, he was the poster boy for the Pirate collpase. At least I viewed it as such.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:59 pm 
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bassoondirector wrote:
I might get beat up over this statement, but I have very little confidence in JMac for next year. I thought he was the first big collapse of the Pirate season last year. In other words, he was the poster boy for the Pirate collpase. At least I viewed it as such.

It seemed like he got tired. Not sure if that is the case, or even part of what his problem was...just a thought I had watching him. I think he will find his way back, but your point is a good one. Like I said above, there are a ton of question marks for this pitching staff this year. Yet it seems like acquiring pitching hasn't been made a real strong priority. Time will tell, I guess...


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Sun Dec 09, 2012 12:40 am 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
You are correct, he had a skull fracture, but he is 100% now.

Good for him. I recalled that his injury was serious and the he did not return to pitch after getting hit.

I always root for pitchers who suffer getting hit in the face or head by a line drive back up the middle. It is one of many reasons that MLB can NEVER go to metal or composite bats - a pitcher would get killed.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:44 am 
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bassoondirector wrote:
I might get beat up over this statement, but I have very little confidence in JMac for next year. I thought he was the first big collapse of the Pirate season last year. In other words, he was the poster boy for the Pirate collpase. At least I viewed it as such.


Don't worry, you won't get beat up. Nobody has confidence in JMac. He has never pitched effectively for a full season, so it is logical to expect more of the same.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:37 pm 
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With Kevin Correia getting 2 years and $10 million from the Twins, the mistake the Pirates made in not retaining Jeff Karstens for $3.8 million or so becomes even more obvious.

Right now, the Pirates' rotation is pretty bad. It features A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, both of whom are essentially #3 starters. After that, you have the spectacularly inconsistent James McDonald, followed by... Kyle McPherson and Jeff Locke. Looks like a 68-win team to me!

If the Pirates want to field even an AVERAGE rotation, they'll need to either (1) trade Hanrahan for a good to very good starting pitcher, which seems highly unlikely at this point, and/or (2) sign one or two of the top remaining free agent pitchers (Anibal Sanchez, Kyle Lohse, Shawn Marcum, Francisco Liriano).

It appears that Sanchez and Lohse are out of the Pirates' price range, so that leaves a slightly above-average starter like Marcum or a crazy inconsistent lefty like Liriano. This is not a good situation, folks. And part of it could have been relieved by simply hanging on to Karstens.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 2:40 pm 
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AJ might be a #3 starter in your book, but he sure pitched like an ace last year.

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:18 pm 
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The Pirates need to start growing their own starting pitchers. They are never going to be truly competitive until they can do that.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:53 pm 
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Rochester wrote:
AJ might be a #3 starter in your book, but he sure pitched like an ace last year.


He pitched like a solid #2 pitcher, that's for sure. But I wouldn't put a 3.51 ERA and 1.9 WAR at "ace" level.

What do you expect in 2013? I don't think anyone expects Burnett to be better than he was in 2012. That's why it's fairly safe to project him as a good #3 pitcher with, say, a 3.70 ERA and 1.5 WAR.


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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:51 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
Rochester wrote:
AJ might be a #3 starter in your book, but he sure pitched like an ace last year.


He pitched like a solid #2 pitcher, that's for sure. But I wouldn't put a 3.51 ERA and 1.9 WAR at "ace" level.

What do you expect in 2013? I don't think anyone expects Burnett to be better than he was in 2012. That's why it's fairly safe to project him as a good #3 pitcher with, say, a 3.70 ERA and 1.5 WAR.


My expectation is that he maintains. He had a couple of real hack jobs that inflated that ERA quite a bit (although WAR is WAR). He also took 3 no hitters into the twilight innings. Maybe the problem is that my expectations of a staff ace have become low over the years :)

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 Post subject: Re: Today's Bucco hypothetical SP's
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:51 am 
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Looks like the Cubs got Villanueva for 2 years and $10 million. The Porcello trade seems like the best option (unless of course they seriously want to move Smyly instead). Hanrahan plus a C prospect and get'r done.

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