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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:29 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
OK new hypothetical -

Hammer for Gavin Floyd. Floyd makes $9.5 million in 2013 and will be a free agent.

Seems like a fair match and gives us a quality #3 SP. Thoughts?


Is this trade straigt up or would the Sox eat some of that salary?

If just SU, 'yes'.

If with some salary dip, 'hell yes'.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:37 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
J_C_Steel wrote:
How about these trades?

Starling Marte and Jameson Taillon for Elvis Andrus.

OR

Joel Hanrahan and Travis Snider for Jason Kubel.


NO and no.


I don't understand people being against trading Marte/Taillon for Andrus. Elvis Andrus is a 24-year-old shortstop star who gets on base, runs well, and plays good defense. He's a PERFECT lead-off hitter for the Pirates. Trading for him and signing him to a long-term deal turns a huge weakness into a big-time strength. If he could be added for two prospects, one of which is a corner outfielder, the Bucs should do it.


It's not a horrible idea. It's just not 'cost effective' or 'most efficient'.

It's not guaranteed that the Pirates can retain Elvis and the need for SS is not as pressing (or, more exactly, cannot be as cheaply filled) as other positions. (Since we're talking hypotheticals, just think for comparison: Would you rather trade Marte+Taillon for $100 M of Andrus or Marte+Taillon+2-3 other players for 1/2 that cost of Giancarlo Stanton???)

That probably is what the price for an Andrus-type would be and it would serve two needs for the Bucs, but the long-term value of both Marte and Taillon may prove to be greater than an expensive position player where the Bucs could otherwise 'just get by'.

Many recent WS winners have had sub-standard-to-standard Shortstops; from David Eckstein and Edgar Renteria to Marco Scutaro... Paying $100 M for SS, even a top-of-the-line one, seems like a luxury that the Bucs are not in position to afford at this time.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:38 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
It's not a horrible idea. It's just not 'cost effective' or 'most efficient'.

It's not guaranteed that the Pirates can retain Elvis and the need for SS is not as pressing (or, more exactly, cannot be as cheaply filled) as other positions. (Since we're talking hypotheticals, just think for comparison: Would you rather trade Marte+Taillon for $100 M of Andrus or Marte+Taillon+2-3 other players for 1/2 that cost of Giancarlo Stanton???)

That probably is what the price for an Andrus-type would be and it would serve two needs for the Bucs, but the long-term value of both Marte and Taillon may prove to be greater than an expensive position player where the Bucs could otherwise 'just get by'.

Many recent WS winners have had sub-standard-to-standard Shortstops; from David Eckstein and Edgar Renteria to Marco Scutaro... Paying $100 M
for SS, even a top-of-the-line one, seems like a luxury that the Bucs are not in position to afford at this time.


A couple things here.

First of all, I'd obviously rather have Giancarlo Stanton. I was the first person on this board to suggest going after him with a huge package, including a Marte/Taillon/Hanson/McPherson combo. Stanton is a game-changing home run hitter. I'd overpay for him.

But the argument that SS isn't a need for the Pirates because Clint Barmes was just below average for the second half last year and not absolutely horrible like he was in the first half is a terrible argument. Barmes is an offensive black hole that drags down the lineup. His defense is good, but that doesn't make up for his lack of contribution to the offense. Adding Elvis Andrus solves at least three problems for the Pirates. First, it replaces Barmes with a very good offensive player. Second, it adds a hitter who can get on base (three straight years of OBPs higher than .340). Third, it give the Pirates a speedy, solid lead-off hitter with a good eye. All without sacrificing defense (Andrus' dWAR over the last two years has been 1.5 and 1.6).

Finally, the argument that World Series winners have gotten by with substandard shortstops is a fallacy. Plenty of such winners have also had substandard center fielders. Does that mean the Pirates should trade Cutch? Of course not. Teams need to put together solid lineups, period. Position isn't nearly as important as actual value. And Elvis Andrus would add something to the Pirates that they TRULY need -- a solid lead-off hitter who gets on base and plays solid defense at shortstop.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:17 pm 
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The idea that we should be looking to trade 3 or more top prospects to acquire one very good player is not an approach the Pirates should be taking, in my opinion.

We need Marte, Taillon, Hanson, and McPherson combined to provide way more value than Andrus ever could by himself. And to do it for 3 years at or near league minimum. That's the only way we are going to be successful in the long term.


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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 1:23 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
When I said not well north of Cutch's deal, I was talking in terms of yearly salary, not overall value.

Your proposal of a 7-year $105M deal for Andrus (i.e., $15M/yr) is certainly well north of Cutch's 6-year $51.5M deal (i.e., $8.6M/yr), even in terms of yearly salary.

J_C_Steel wrote:
Would you be FOR the deal if the Pirates signed Andrus to a 7-year, $105 million extension?

Probably, but again, you haven't explained how that condition would likely be satisfied. You are presuming that Andrus, a star player only 2 years away from free agency, would take such a deal from the Pirates, a perennial loser. I don't see why Andrus would take that deal from any team, much less the Pirates, when Jose Reyes, a player of comparable value, received a much richer contract from the Marlins last year ($105M over 6 years = $17.5M/yr). I also don't understand how it is "feasible" for the Pirates to make such a deal and still have the resources to make the pitching improvements necessary to make this team a contender.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:01 pm 
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J_C_Steel wrote:
First of all, I'd obviously rather have Giancarlo Stanton... I'd overpay for him.


The Stanton hypothetical was just as a comparison to the cost of Andrus.

J_C_Steel wrote:
But the argument that SS isn't a need for the Pirates because Clint Barmes was just below average for the second half last year and not absolutely horrible like he was in the first half is a terrible argument.


It's a faulty argument if the goal is to have an AS caliber player @ SS or if one is intent on having a premier player @ SS. Otherwise it's more just accepting the Pirates current position.

If the goal is to win games, make the playoffs and/or make/win a WS, there is no concrete evidence which supports that an elite SS is needed.

J_C_Steel wrote:
Finally, the argument that World Series winners have gotten by with substandard shortstops is a fallacy. Plenty of such winners have also had substandard center fielders. Does that mean the Pirates should trade Cutch? Of course not. Teams need to put together solid lineups, period. Position isn't nearly as important as actual value. And Elvis Andrus would add something to the Pirates that they TRULY need -- a solid lead-off hitter who gets on base and plays solid defense at shortstop.


Yes, position isn't as important as actual value and Andrus would add something. However, you answered your own question: position isn't as important as actual value. So long as the Pirates get 'actual value' which equates to what Andrus can produce or near it, it doesn't matter if that production comes from SS, 2B, CF, etc.

It isn't imperative that the Pirates have an elite SS and/or that SS be an elite leadoff hitter, etc. All that is imperative is that the lineup functions enough to win more than losing.

Furthermore, look at what Ben Revere just netted: a solid SP and a AAA P averaging 11/K/9 IP ratio! Many are claiming that it was 'quite a haul' for a CF like Reve.

Isn't Marte as good and/or projects better than Revere? So Marte+Taillon (a former #1 pick who projects as an 'Ace') may be more in 'actual value', both long and short term, than spending $100+ M on Andrus.

The years and levels of production provided by Marte+Taillon+the other players the Pirates could afford by not shelling out $100 M for Andrus (a Barmes like SS, another SP, probably more) may very well prove to have more 'actual value' than the 'importance of having an elite SS'.

All this appears moot anyways as the Rangers appear more intent on moving Michael Young as opposed to Elvis.

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 Post subject: Re: Would you make this trade?
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2012 6:33 pm 
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Not intended to drudge this back up, but I came across this nice piece of work looking at BA's top 100 from 1990-2003 and defining success as averaging 1.5 WAR per season of cost-control (first 6 1/2 years). That's a bit of a high bar, but it basically indicates the rate of prospects turning into good durable MLB players.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1 ... -prospects

The failure rate overall is near 70%, of course its much higher at the bottom of the list than the top. Even so, in the top 20 rankings its about 40% fail for hitters, 60% for pitchers.

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