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 Post subject: Re: Revisiting the Maholm and Doumit Decisions
PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:28 pm 
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Ryann wrote:
So wait? ERA determines how good the catcher is not the pitching??? Barajas had a much improved pitching staff maybe that is why his ERA was better...


I mentioned the likelihood of P dependence for something like Catcher ERA, but I also recognize that stats like RBI are [situational] dependent. For example: Doumit hit 35 of his 75 RBI's from the DH position... how do you account for those if he's on the Pirates, an NL team with no DH capabilities? What happens to those 35 RBI's (and would they affect his WAR)???

Also, I'm just throwing out stats for consideration. It's easy to say, 'Doumit hit more RBI, ergo he would have been an upgrade over Barajas!', but that ignores a slew of factors involved in the X vs. Y case.

I had about 10 minutes of free time at work, so I dug up these stats for consideration:

2012 Stats:

TWINS:
Age PA ERA RAvg
Joe Mauer 29 2712 4.9 5.3
Ryan Doumit 31 2173 5.08 5.64
Drew Butera 28 1253 4.04 4.37
Chris Herrmann 24 76 3.79 3.79

PIRATES:
Age PA ERA RAvg
Rod Barajas 36 3481 3.73 4.05
Michael McKenry 27 2616 4.05 4.4

DODGERS (Barajas' former team for comparison vs. 2011):
Age PA ERA RAvg
A.J. Ellis 31 4797 3.31 3.56
Matt Treanor 36 1234 3.55 4.4
Tim Federowicz 24 37 0.9 0.9

2011 stats:

PIRATES:
Age PA ERA RAvg
Michael McKenry 26 2118 3.75 4.1
Ryan Doumit 30 2043 4.74 5.36
Chris Snyder 30 1113 3.39 3.52
Dusty Brown 29 341 4.15 4.5
Jason Jaramillo 28 320 3.54 3.67
Eric Fryer 25 271 3.21 3.65
Matt Pagnozzi 28 68 9 9
Wyatt Toregas 28 43 3.6 3.6

DODGERS:
Age PA ERA RAvg
Rod Barajas 35 3085 3.56 3.73
Dioner Navarro 27 1768 3.41 3.87
A.J. Ellis 30 930 3.53 4.02
Tim Federowicz 23 169 3.15 3.38
Hector Gimenez 28 45 10 10

...so... Doumit had the highest Catcher ERA of his peers (among regular starters) the last two years. Barajas had the lowest for teh Bucs and 2nd lowest for the Dodgers (although he caught nearly twice as many innings as Navarro). Now, the Dodgers Catchers' ERA's were in line with Barajas' last year, and likewise Barajas 2012 ERA was similar to most of the Bucs catchers from 2011, so it might be a product of their pitching staff as opposed to the Catcher, but then why are Doumit's ERA's >4 each year? And why is his ERA >1 higher than his peers in 2011 and the highest also on the Twins??? I didn't have time to check and compare his ERA's for every year (I will later when I have more time), but it's still food for thought.

I'm not saying that all defensive metrics are iron clad. In fact, it's their ambuguity which makes the case for Doumit/against Barajas rather difficult to make either way.

That said, what defensive metrics are readily available show that Barajas may very well be better defensively (or that there is a higher probabilty that he is).

I'm not saying Barajas isn't/wasn't bad or that Doumit was horrible, I'm just saying that, when considering the variety of factors which go into playing the position of Catcher, I cannot say for certain that a Doumit-for-Barajas swap would guarantee better results.

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Last edited by NSMaster56 on Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Revisiting the Maholm and Doumit Decisions
PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:31 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
I don't think that there will ever be a way to measure defense down to the last run, and that's what most of the newer metrics claim to do. Measuring defense for catcher, well, I think that day will never come. There are just way too many variables, and some of them are unmeasurable, like the one I mentioned above.


I agree.

Which is why I don't think it's wise to say, 'swapping Doumit for Barajas would guarantee equal defensive production while improved offensive output' when only 1/2 of that statement is true.

There are too many factors at play to simply assume that one catcher is as good as another defensively, especially when available metrics show otherwise.

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 Post subject: Re: Revisiting the Maholm and Doumit Decisions
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:07 am 
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McKenry and Barajas didn't catch the same pitchers.

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 Post subject: Re: Revisiting the Maholm and Doumit Decisions
PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 8:25 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
McKenry and Barajas didn't catch the same pitchers.


That doesn't explain why Doumit's ERA was a full run higher than any 2011 Pirates catcher not named Matt Pagnozzi.

When I get time tomorrow I will find the data which compares Barajas' and Doumit's ERA's to their peers from year to year.

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