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 Post subject: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:21 am 
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“He meant a lot to our club,” he said. “The big man could play some defense and swing the bat. He brought an edge, major league experience. He showed up every day; preparation and attention to detail was there. We'll miss Marlon.”



As far a Marlon Byrd goes…..The Bucco’s not signing him just up’ed the value of the first base position and big-time increased the possibility that GI Jones will be with the Pirates in Bradenton. They can bring him back for less than value if they throw in a few hot dogs. Obviously Polanco will not be up until around the break and hopefully the Pirates will not put all their eggs in Tabata’s basket. Tabata was a .282/.342 with 6 dingers. Anyone with better numbers than that will cost Marlon Byrd Type money. Marlon had a good season but on average he is a .280/.336 hitter. Agents will point to the 8 mil a year. Don’t look for the Pirates to land a big time Right Fielder. I know..Numbers are the same. but non saber guys would point to: "He showed up every day; preparation and attention to detail was there." Your not getting that with Tabata.
The Byrd signing up’s the value of the 1st base position by taking some of the “wait and see” patients away from the Pirates. If Loney or Morneau get anywhere near Byrd type money from some team not in Pittsburgh, well, The offense from last spring wont change much. That is if the FO wants the offense to change much. People on this blog think the Phillies over paid for Byrd. Well, teams always over pay for players. But its different for the Pirates right now. If you don’t over pay and take the wait and see approach, there wont be any position players left that are better than what you already have. This free agent period was supposed to be about taking the next step in improvement. I for one will be surprised if they improve either position. Perhaps the last 20 years has made me skeptical, but does the ownership really need or want to improve this team by spending money? Season ticket sales are blowing up. Ticket prices are up and there will be Butts in the seats without the need to buy a crap load of bobble heads.
8 mil a year for for a guy who will keep you competitive in this division was not to much to spend. If you cant afford 16 mil over 2 years then why do you own a MLB team? To make money! That’s why. Enjoy the season Mr. Nutting.

“If you don't want to give up your first-round pick, Marlon Byrd is arguably the best available outfield bat,” Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said. “We feared he was out of our price range immediately.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 1:06 pm 
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Really, this "same old Pirates" bullshit is still floating around?

Look, a small market team isn't going to sign a 35 year old coming off of a complete anomaly of a season that coincides with suspected PED use at $8m per. It's not smart money management. Billy Beane wouldn't do it, Andrew Freidman wouldn't do it, and Neal Huntington isn't going to do it.

The only way Jones comes back is if he's non-tendered and resigned. MLBTR estimated that he'll get ~$5m in arbitration and there's no way NH is going to let $5m of his budget go to the shell of Garrett Jones.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:15 pm 
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He was not given a 2 year deal because Polanco is waiting in the wings. If he would have agreed to a 1 year deal at maybe $10 mil, it would have been a good deal for the Bucs, but nothing over that. Can't block Polanco. I would not be surprised to see hims tart the season in Pittsburgh....JMHO... 8-) 8-) 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:49 pm 
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Quote:
Look, a small market team isn't going to sign a 35 year old coming off of a complete anomaly of a season that coincides with suspected PED use at $8m per. It's not smart money management. Billy Beane wouldn't do it, Andrew Freidman wouldn't do it, and Neal Huntington isn't going to do it.


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He was not given a 2 year deal because Polanco is waiting in the wings. If he would have agreed to a 1 year deal at maybe $10 mil, it would have been a good deal for the Bucs, but nothing over that. Can't block Polanco.


First off...Be smart. He's not blocking Polanco unless you need him too. If Byrd were in RF and the Pirates were competing for the division then Polanco can spend more time in Indy. If the Pirates are out of contention then the salary and Byrd get traded to a contender for a prospect.

Quote:
Really, this "same old Pirates" bullshit is still floating around?


I hope I'm wrong. I'm just saying that we have the perfect money making storm. This is a business and we don't really need better players to win in the regular season if everything continues to go so well. Carlos Beltran was linked to the Pirates. I chuckled. Burnett not tendered? No way will AJB come back for a pay cut. I'm sure he has a guy who tells him what he's worth. Do not be surprised if you see AJ pitching for the Cubs next year. Neil H said Byrd was a priority too. The NH quote was (I wish I could find it) "We will work to take the next step". What is the next step? Sit back and wait?


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:57 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
Really, this "same old Pirates" bullshit is still floating around?

Look, a small market team isn't going to sign a 35 year old coming off of a complete anomaly of a season that coincides with suspected PED use at $8m per. It's not smart money management. Billy Beane wouldn't do it, Andrew Freidman wouldn't do it, and Neal Huntington isn't going to do it.



I'm not so sure about that. Billy Beane has handed out a 2 year - $10.5 million to a 35 year closer. He also signed a 31 year old pitcher who missed the previous season due to Tommy John Surgery to a $10 million contract. And don't forget he gambled on Yoenis Cespedes. At the time that was considered a really big deal. Most were shocked by the size of that contract for player scouts had seen little of. Beane will overpay on a short deal if he thinks the reward is big enough. He isn't as risk averse as other small market GMs.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:00 pm 
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Rotten, you're assuming that Byrd is going to produce like he did in 2013. It's much more likely that he won't. A small market team trying to win cannot afford to make a $8MM mistake.

I don't know why people are getting all tied up in knots over AJ... If he's true to his word and comes back as a Pirate and only a Pirate, great. If not, happy trails, good luck, and thank you. Either way I'm sure NH has a plan for the rotation and he's earned the right to be trusted with those plans (especially with pitchers).


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:08 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
I'm not so sure about that. Billy Beane has handed out a 2 year - $10.5 million to a 35 year closer. He also signed a 31 year old pitcher who missed the previous season due to Tommy John Surgery to a $10 million contract. And don't forget he gambled on Yoenis Cespedes. At the time that was considered a really big deal. Most were shocked by the size of that contract for player scouts had seen little of. Beane will overpay on a short deal if he thinks the reward is big enough. He isn't as risk averse as other small market GMs.


Okay, I give up... Who were the pitchers and what were their track records?


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:16 pm 
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Byrd was [always] a cheap rental.

Another cheap rental like him can be had this summer.

If not, the Bucs have Tabata and Lambo to fill in RF until top prospect Greg Polanco is ready.

You don't spend $10k to refurbish your 10-year old Honda when you've got a shiny new Mercedes about to come off of the assembly line.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:28 pm 
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JollyRoger wrote:
mjdouble wrote:
I'm not so sure about that. Billy Beane has handed out a 2 year - $10.5 million to a 35 year closer. He also signed a 31 year old pitcher who missed the previous season due to Tommy John Surgery to a $10 million contract. And don't forget he gambled on Yoenis Cespedes. At the time that was considered a really big deal. Most were shocked by the size of that contract for a player scouts had seen little of. Beane will overpay on a short deal if he thinks the reward is big enough. He isn't as risk averse as other small market GMs.


Okay, I give up... Who were the pitchers and what were their track records?


Brian Fuentes and Ben Sheets. I'm not sure the track records matter much though. The point is Beane is willing to overpay and isn't afraid of risk as long as the deal is short. If Byrd was a fit for his club I think he'd be willing to pay $8 million per for him despite the red flags. For the record both Fuentes and Sheets turned out to be mistakes and Oakland seemed to weather it fine.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:48 pm 
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See Davis, Ike, in the other thread as a player who can reasonably be available and fill a power gap at 1b while Tabata and Lambo man RF until Polanco is ready.

ZM

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 4:43 pm 
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I could go for Ike Davis and see what he can contribute. Wouldn't give much up for him though.... 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:11 pm 
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LOL at anybody who thought they'd make a run at Byrd. He's average at best over the course of his career and had an outlier season at 35.

NH did the PC thing and said he'd love to have him but they weren't going to re-sign a guy with that many warning signs. Nor would it be in-line with SOP to rip a guy who caused no trouble while he was here and talk about his lack of value.

They aren't blocking Polanco with a guy who's league average in his best years. I cannot believe the phrase "be smart" was thrown out with the suggestion of blocking Polanco and them trading Byrd for a prospect (even though with a contract his size you'd get nothing in return and likely have to eat a chunk of the deal).

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:31 pm 
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Byrd would be nice to have on a modest 1 year contract. Otherwise it didn't make sense for the Bucs. I'm fine that they passed him.

By the way, anyone want to have a good old fashioned game of catch with me in front of Ruben Amaro's house? We could make millions!


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 6:33 pm 
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mjdouble wrote:
Byrd would be nice to have on a modest 1 year contract. Otherwise it didn't make sense for the Bucs. I'm fine that they passed him.

By the way, anyone want to have a good old fashioned game of catch with me in front of Ruben Amaro's house? We could make millions!


I would but I'm not 38 so I doubt I'd interest him much.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 10:07 pm 
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Sign anyone.........That's the point. NH needs to give this team a margin for error. The Offense was abysmal last year. Pitching carried it. Please keep in mind that Lambo couldn't crack the starting line up before Byrd and Morneau got there. Suddenly he's a great Pirate hero. Come on.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:03 pm 
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Yeah but nobody out there is any good in this free agent class.

There's a difference between making a worthwhile upgrade and making a move to make a move.

Most of these guys have significantly more name value than game value.

The idea that you need to spend to win is an antiquated philosophy proven to be incorrect. I'd rather see them go for talent over payroll.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 9:57 am 
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My point is, there should be no doubt that Marlon Byrd made the Pirates better. We can all guess at whether or not Byrd can sustain the level of play. But the bottom line is that you get paid for your body of work. And right now that is a lot better than most alternatives.
I guess what I'm saying here is that I was really disappointed that the Pirates did not make a play at Byrd. I know that the Pirates will never be contenders for the Napoli type free agents. Guys that are going to command 80/90 million over 4 or 5 years are never going to be in reach for the Pirates. I get that. But 8 mil for 2 years for a guy who plays pretty good and FITS IN WELL with the chemistry is well with in reach and is worth taking a chance on. If the Pirates were worried that a 2 year deal blocked Polanco then the Pirates should have tendered Byrd. 1 for 14 mil. He would have likely turned it down and the Pirates would have gained a draft pick. If he took it....So what. This team is at a turning point. Compete for a championship or status quo. This I will promise you. The Pirates as the team currently sits will not win the World Series in 2014. I say that because if you think that Byrd cannot sustain his level of play, then what makes you think the Pirates will?


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:21 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
Sign anyone.........That's the point. NH needs to give this team a margin for error. The Offense was abysmal last year. Pitching carried it. Please keep in mind that Lambo couldn't crack the starting line up before Byrd and Morneau got there. Suddenly he's a great Pirate hero. Come on.


This is my mindset. We entered 2013 relying on Tabata and Snider in RF cause 'maybe Tabata will wake up' and 'we have to give Snider the opportunity. Neither panned out, our offense sucked, and we ended up having to give up prospects to get a RF and 1B when we knew before the first pitch of the season that those were gambles and we did not win on those gambles.

Entering 2014 so far we are saying 'maybe Tabata has woken up' and 'we have to give Lambo a chance'.....and if they don't work out, we are assuming that Polanco is going to come up and produce in his first half season in the majors. I'm fine with this to be honest as one of those 3 should be able to produce on par with at least an average MLB player. I hope anyway.

BUT.....

We absolutely need a professional, above average 1B if we go that route. Our offense sucked, address it. Don't take another flyer on a Lyle Overbay and cross your fingers. Yes, you didn't draft and groom a capable 1B in the 7 years you have been here so pull the trigger on a real 1B. You aren't going to draft and groom 8 capable position players so this should not come as unexpected that you have to plug a hole or two with a somewhat expensive FA, or bite the bullet and trade prospects for one to negate some of the 'salary' cost, and let the cost be prospects. It's all a gamble but one that needs to be made.

Regarding AJ, 14 million may be a little expensive for his age and also when looking at the pitchers we already have, but it isn't far off when looking at the league and the infusion of the new 20 million each team gets. Sure, AJ and Liriano panned out. How about Bedard, Jonathan Sanchez, etc? Would you pay 12 for AJ and know you are getting a #2 or #3 caliber SP, or should we be trying to get the Bedards and Sanchez types at 6 per, as even the bottom dollar guys are going to be more expensive due to the rise in cost of all free agents and their cost is only lower because the odds of them doing well are very low.


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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:05 am 
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ZelieMike wrote:
See Davis, Ike, in the other thread as a player who can reasonably be available and fill a power gap at 1b while Tabata and Lambo man RF until Polanco is ready.

ZM




Would make sense. I read that there are quite a few teams considering trading for Davis, though.

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 Post subject: Re: Same Old Song and Dance
PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 11:11 am 
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The Rotten One wrote:
My point is, there should be no doubt that Marlon Byrd made the Pirates better. We can all guess at whether or not Byrd can sustain the level of play. But the bottom line is that you get paid for your body of work. And right now that is a lot better than most alternatives.
I guess what I'm saying here is that I was really disappointed that the Pirates did not make a play at Byrd. I know that the Pirates will never be contenders for the Napoli type free agents. Guys that are going to command 80/90 million over 4 or 5 years are never going to be in reach for the Pirates. I get that. But 8 mil for 2 years for a guy who plays pretty good and FITS IN WELL with the chemistry is well with in reach and is worth taking a chance on. If the Pirates were worried that a 2 year deal blocked Polanco then the Pirates should have tendered Byrd. 1 for 14 mil. He would have likely turned it down and the Pirates would have gained a draft pick. If he took it....So what. This team is at a turning point. Compete for a championship or status quo. This I will promise you. The Pirates as the team currently sits will not win the World Series in 2014. I say that because if you think that Byrd cannot sustain his level of play, then what makes you think the Pirates will?



He was so bad that he almost retired last year, at 36, but now after using steroids he's good again. And the Pirates have a top prospect in the wings.

And, a guy who just got 2 years 16 mil would turn down 1 year at 14? He probably would have accepted that offer in a second.

Finally, your last sentence is complete insanity. I think Byrd cannot sustain this BECAUSE HE'S A 36 YEAR OLD CAREER-YEAR STEROID USER while the rest of the Pirates are NOT 36 YEAR OLD STEROID USERS.

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