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 Post subject: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:56 pm 
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Wow. Very risky contract because of the years.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8926518/felix-hernandez-seattle-mariners-agree-175-million-contract-according-report

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 2:23 am 
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He's only 26.

He's a CY winner and perennial candidate.

He's the face of a failing franchise.

He tosses 200 innings, K's 200 and would win 15+ a year if he had any offensive support.

Risk? Worth it.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:23 am 
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NH asleep at the wheel. Could have offered to trade the entire system for Hernandez and offer him $30 mil.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:23 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
He's only 26.

He's a CY winner and perennial candidate.

He's the face of a failing franchise.

He tosses 200 innings, K's 200 and would win 15+ a year if he had any offensive support.

Risk? Worth it.



Huge risk.

Tim Lincecum. Throws 200+ innings per year. No injury history. ERA under 3 every year. 2 Cy Youngs. Strikes out 250+ per year. 5 years $100 mil? Worth it.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:09 pm 
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We can only hope (and dream) that Gerrit Cole pitches like King Felix and eventually receives (earns) a similar contract from the PBC.


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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:45 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
He's only 26.

He's a CY winner and perennial candidate.

He's the face of a failing franchise.

He tosses 200 innings, K's 200 and would win 15+ a year if he had any offensive support.

Risk? Worth it.



Huge risk.

Tim Lincecum. Throws 200+ innings per year. No injury history. ERA under 3 every year. 2 Cy Youngs. Strikes out 250+ per year. 5 years $100 mil? Worth it.


In fairness, Timmy looks like his arm is about to separate from his body on each pitch. He and Felix are two very different animals. Still any long term SP deal is filled with risk.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 12:58 pm 
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My initial thoughts when reading about the contract extension:
1. How much of that contract were the Mariners able to insure?
2. What was the premium cost of that insurance policy?
3. What percentage of Seattle's revenues are now invested in one pitcher?
4. Is it a wise investment to invest X% of total revenue into a pitcher when (a) that player will appear in no more than 25% of the team's games and (b) plays a position that is rife with risk for injury?

Then I started to think of pitchers who have sustained greatness for 10 straight years. The only name that jumped to mind was CC Sabathia.

There can be little doubt that it was a very risky move by the Mariners. Very risky.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 1:30 pm 
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Very risky, but I totally get why the Mariners extended him. Given the way teams jealously guard their top prospects, there was little chance that the M's were going to get fair value in a trade, and a mere draft pick is not enough compensation for the departure of arguably the best pitcher in the game. I would have extended him, though perhaps not for the same number of years.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:09 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
He's only 26.

He's a CY winner and perennial candidate.

He's the face of a failing franchise.

He tosses 200 innings, K's 200 and would win 15+ a year if he had any offensive support.

Risk? Worth it.

He's lost 10 games over the past two years when he held the opponents to under 2 runs.

But if they're not going to give him some run support, what really do they need him for?


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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 3:25 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
NSMaster56 wrote:
He's only 26.

He's a CY winner and perennial candidate.

He's the face of a failing franchise.

He tosses 200 innings, K's 200 and would win 15+ a year if he had any offensive support.

Risk? Worth it.



Huge risk.

Tim Lincecum. Throws 200+ innings per year. No injury history. ERA under 3 every year. 2 Cy Youngs. Strikes out 250+ per year. 5 years $100 mil? Worth it.


In fairness, Timmy looks like his arm is about to separate from his body on each pitch. He and Felix are two very different animals. Still any long term SP deal is filled with risk.



Yeah, that is true. But there are a whole lot more of these guys than there are Clemenses.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 4:04 pm 
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SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
SUPERCHARGED APE wrote:

Huge risk.

Tim Lincecum. Throws 200+ innings per year. No injury history. ERA under 3 every year. 2 Cy Youngs. Strikes out 250+ per year. 5 years $100 mil? Worth it.


In fairness, Timmy looks like his arm is about to separate from his body on each pitch. He and Felix are two very different animals. Still any long term SP deal is filled with risk.



Yeah, that is true. But there are a whole lot more of these guys than there are Clemenses.


There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:09 pm 
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bucco boy wrote:

Well that will surely make them contenders.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:14 pm 
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Barrys Dopers wrote:
There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

Note the eventual fate of Gooden's right elbow.

That said, Felix's arm didn't take the early abuse that Gooden's did. Maybe he'll stay healthy.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 6:41 pm 
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sisyphus wrote:
Barrys Dopers wrote:
There are not a "whole lot" of King Felix. He was pitching in the majors at age 19 with a 2.67 era, that's Doc Gooden and virtually no one else in the last 30 years.

Note the eventual fate of Gooden's right elbow.

That said, Felix's arm didn't take the early abuse that Gooden's did. Maybe he'll stay healthy.


Gooden regressed before the arm injury, his K rate plummeted immediately to the 7.50 range where we has merely a very good pitcher for 10 years. I think the nostrils were a bigger issue for him. Point taken, any pitcher is healthy until they are not.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:19 pm 
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Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2013 10:22 pm 
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For those of you who aren't aware of the great blog USS Mariner, it lit up with the signing.

A great analysis by one commenter here:

Quote:
Somebody above asked about attendance differences when Felix is pitching, and it is a good question that illustrates Dave’s point well. Last year, the Mariners drew 1,171,920 (an average of 21,258 over 81 games). In 18 home starts by Felix, the Mariners drew 436,515 (an average of 24,251 per game). However, Felix’s impact isn’t measured by the difference in those two averages, because Felix was a big part of why the overall attendance per game average was as high as it was. If you subtract the attendance in games pitched by Felix, the Mariners drew 735,405 over 63 games – an average of only 11,673 per game. Basically, on average, attendance DOUBLED in 2012 when Felix pitched. Do you really think the Mariners could afford to leave their fan base with the impression that they might let Felix go?

Beyond that, this is a pretty fair contract, in terms of Felix’s expected value over the life of the contract.

By fWAR, Felix has averaged 6.0 WAR over both the last 3-year and 4-year periods (his age 24-26 and 23-26 seasons, respectively), and rWAR has him a bit lower (4.9 WAR/year over the last 3 years, and 5.1 WAR over the last 4). Felix is still a year away from what most aging curves would say is his expected peak, and he has been extremely durable and mostly injury free for his MLB career (since his first full year in MLB, he has never failed to make at least 30 starts, and hasn’t thrown less than 200 innings in a season since his age 21 year, when the Mariners were restricting his innings; even then, he has never thrown less than 190 innings in any full MLB season).

Apart from a discussion of which version of WAR you prefer, there is no projection system which would not peg Felix in 2013 as less than a 5-win player, with 6 WAR probably a fairer projection.

If you peg dollars per win at somewhere between $5.25M and $5.5M per year (I think it is closer to $5.5M per year this year), assume a 5% increase per year in the dollar value of a win, and an average decline of 0.5 WAR per season, you find that Felix’s contract is pretty damn fair.

At the rosy end of the projections (assuming a 2013 starting point of 6.0 WAR, with the dollar value of wins at $5.5M), Felix will be “worth” $197.25M over the life of this contract – over $20M more than the Mariners paid. On the other end of the spectrum, if you assume the dollar value of a win is $5.25M and Felix starts at 5.0 WAR instead of 6.0, his value over the life of the contract is $146M.

A more moderately conservative projection, using $5.25M per win, and Felix’s starting value in 2013 at 5.5 WAR, shows Felix being worth $167M over the life of the contract – pretty close to what the M’s paid. If the value of a win is $5.5M to start – as I think it is – and Felix is a 5.5-win player now, the expected value Felix will produce is *exactly* $175M over the life of the contract.

Of course, you can’t really assign any particular “expected decline” to any pitcher, because they can get hurt at any time. However, assuming Felix doesn’t have a career-ending injury in the first five years or so, from a baseball perspective this contract should work out just fine. And really, from a business perspective, they had no choice.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Sat Feb 09, 2013 11:00 am 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
Lots of good points and questions.

First things first: isn't the obvious King Felix comparison Fernando Valenzuela?

Secondly and more 'intangibly', the M's HAD to sign Felix. Much like the post-Bonds Bucs, M's fans have been alienated and betrayed since the Randy trade. Seriously, many fans are at their wits end with the M's. Granted, the M's had a fair option on Felix the next two years ($40 M, ~$20 M/season), but it was likely he would want out if they didn't lock him up ASAP (as he could command more $ from LA/NY/etc. and/or they could offer a better 'winning atmosphere'). Considering their recent FA/trade misses (Hamilton & Upton), this at least sends a message to fans and players alike: we're serious about changing... we WILL do what it takes to win.

Lastly and also 'intangibly', while there is certain risk when signing a player even as great as King Felix to a deal of this size one must ask themself: how often does a player of his caliber come along? And, if they don't break down like others have, what's a player of that caliber worth?

Most teams wait 30/40/50 years for a player like Felix to land on their team, so when you get one it's hard to pass up the opportunity to keep them around. If you're going to spend insane amounts of money on one player, it might as well be a phenom like Felix. It's absolutely worth the risk.


Great comp too NS! They better hope it doesn't prove to be accurate. Fernando was awesome up until age 26 then was never the same. Of course he threw 250+ innings for 6 straight years maxing out at 285.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 9:52 pm 
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ESPN reporting that the deal isn't done yet and "one side" in the negotiations has concerns about his elbow.

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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2013 10:39 pm 
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No. 9 wrote:
ESPN reporting that the deal isn't done yet and "one side" in the negotiations has concerns about his elbow.

Let me guess which side ....

Young pitchers who carry the work load that Felix did now seem headed to Dr. Yocum a very large percentage of the time.


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 Post subject: Re: Felix Hernandez
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:29 pm 
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NSMaster56 wrote:
For those of you who aren't aware of the great blog USS Mariner, it lit up with the signing.

A great analysis by one commenter here:

Quote:
Somebody above asked about attendance differences when Felix is pitching, and it is a good question that illustrates Dave’s point well. Last year, the Mariners drew 1,171,920 (an average of 21,258 over 81 games). In 18 home starts by Felix, the Mariners drew 436,515 (an average of 24,251 per game). However, Felix’s impact isn’t measured by the difference in those two averages, because Felix was a big part of why the overall attendance per game average was as high as it was. If you subtract the attendance in games pitched by Felix, the Mariners drew 735,405 over 63 games – an average of only 11,673 per game. Basically, on average, attendance DOUBLED in 2012 when Felix pitched. Do you really think the Mariners could afford to leave their fan base with the impression that they might let Felix go?

Beyond that, this is a pretty fair contract, in terms of Felix’s expected value over the life of the contract.

By fWAR, Felix has averaged 6.0 WAR over both the last 3-year and 4-year periods (his age 24-26 and 23-26 seasons, respectively), and rWAR has him a bit lower (4.9 WAR/year over the last 3 years, and 5.1 WAR over the last 4). Felix is still a year away from what most aging curves would say is his expected peak, and he has been extremely durable and mostly injury free for his MLB career (since his first full year in MLB, he has never failed to make at least 30 starts, and hasn’t thrown less than 200 innings in a season since his age 21 year, when the Mariners were restricting his innings; even then, he has never thrown less than 190 innings in any full MLB season).

Apart from a discussion of which version of WAR you prefer, there is no projection system which would not peg Felix in 2013 as less than a 5-win player, with 6 WAR probably a fairer projection.

If you peg dollars per win at somewhere between $5.25M and $5.5M per year (I think it is closer to $5.5M per year this year), assume a 5% increase per year in the dollar value of a win, and an average decline of 0.5 WAR per season, you find that Felix’s contract is pretty damn fair.

At the rosy end of the projections (assuming a 2013 starting point of 6.0 WAR, with the dollar value of wins at $5.5M), Felix will be “worth” $197.25M over the life of this contract – over $20M more than the Mariners paid. On the other end of the spectrum, if you assume the dollar value of a win is $5.25M and Felix starts at 5.0 WAR instead of 6.0, his value over the life of the contract is $146M.

A more moderately conservative projection, using $5.25M per win, and Felix’s starting value in 2013 at 5.5 WAR, shows Felix being worth $167M over the life of the contract – pretty close to what the M’s paid. If the value of a win is $5.5M to start – as I think it is – and Felix is a 5.5-win player now, the expected value Felix will produce is *exactly* $175M over the life of the contract.

Of course, you can’t really assign any particular “expected decline” to any pitcher, because they can get hurt at any time. However, assuming Felix doesn’t have a career-ending injury in the first five years or so, from a baseball perspective this contract should work out just fine. And really, from a business perspective, they had no choice.


But what are the chances that Felix will put up that kind of WAR? This blog post, from the excellent High Heat Stats blog, takes a look at how similar pitchers have fared.

http://www.highheatstats.com/2013/02/king-felixs-new-clothes/

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